Battle Of San Bernardino Strait? ...

What would have happened if Admiral Halsey had changed his mind much earlier and had time to set up the mother of all surface sea ambushes just East of the San Bernardino Straits?

This would have been a night surface action? I'm sure this has been discussed before.
 
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This would have been a night surface action? I'm sure this has been discussed before.

Not often, or well in the discussions I've seen.

A night battle goes to the US. The Japanese only had parity in experience and doctrine after 1942, then there is the matter of US radar directed gunnery and search.
 
Not often, or well in the discussions I've seen.

A night battle goes to the US. The Japanese only had parity in experience and doctrine after 1942, then there is the matter of US radar directed gunnery and search.

Johnboy did an alt Battle of Leyte Gulf. It didn't end well for the IJN. US took some hurt too. Some discussion on Iowa's - that there were accuracy problems with the new 16" they mounted.

Carl - what we're ur ultimate thoughts on that one?
 
It can be argued which ambush would be the bigger 'Mother of all naval ambushes', San Bernardino or Surigao Strait. :)

This battle would have to be simulated, preferably multiple times. The US Navy has the advantage; how much damage will the US ships take? They also don't have the same numerical superiority as at Surigao Strait.
 
Having browsed at least two analyses of the matchup, the consensus seems to be that the Center Force gets smashed to pieces while the US steams away with significant casualties. How many casualties seems to be the main point of contention.
 
Lets assume that Halsey is nearly as aggressive but actually quite rational...

He keeps both his Iowas and many cruisers and DDs with his CVs and still goes after Ozawa at Cape Egano
Added aside: this allows the "Bull" to charge against hat he sees as the main threat (since he himself is on an Iowa)


He does form TF34 but only to his "original" plan of four battleships, five cruisers and 14 destroyers.
This is a homogeneous force .. all ships modern, all essentially undamaged.


They face the remains of the IJN Center force comprising four battle ships , six cruisers and 13 destroyers
This is a mixed force ... with some BBs older if modernized design, some damaged significantly

US BBs have large immune zone against most IJN BBs but the opposite is not true ... big advantage to USN at mid to long range.
US cruisers have no torps, IJN ones have Long Lance ... a double edged sword given the USN higher ROF in Cruiser main guns
US DDs do have torps but less and worse with no reloads but likewise reasonable ASuW potential

With that force ratio Lee cannot afford any fancy deployment. He patrols San Benadino and gets what search help he can from the Taffies.
He probably locates the IJN first and thus can deploy to block them but little more.

The Japanese need to close ... both to break through to the landing and use their torpedo advantage
The USN to keep the range open. The real question is who succeeds best ...

which ever it wont/cant be spun as either a one sided ambush like Surigao nor a "David and Goliath" myth like Samar

In fact tactically it's pretty close to 6/5 an pick 'em and I can see both sides losing many ships of all types.
though strategically I can't see the IJN succeeding on the day and of course their human casualties will be higher
 
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Carl - what we're ur ultimate thoughts on that one?

The only other items I can think of are the arguments about USN pre war doctrine influences. The claim is the USN strength in gunnery and damage resistance of the BB was at medium range. Off Guadacanal, Scott, Calligahan, & Lee closed the range as far as practical. How that plays out at night or day in the San Bernardino Strait I won't say right now.
 
In fact tactically it's pretty close to 6/5 an pick 'em and I can see both sides losing many ships of all types.
though strategically I can't see the IJN succeeding on the day and of course their human casualties will be higher

You probably get both sides beating each other up which means a win for the US. Even a slight "tactical victory" (I hate that term) for the Japanese meaning they sink more US ships and cause more US dead is a win for the US because the Center Force turns away.

Anything less than an ASB level victory for the Japanese where Lee drinks several gallons of lead paint right before the battle allowing the Japanese to destroy his force with losses to themselves results in the Japanese ultimately failing.
 
A big problem for the Japanese Navy is they were stuck in the Indies for a year without access to proper gunnery training and maintenance facilities. The Japanese hadn't had target proper practice in a year, that showed in OTL. Second problem , their destroyers are seriously outnumbered by their American counterparts, the larger Japanese ships will be eating torpedoes.
 
[QUOTE="James Ricker, post: 17034104, member: 98381] their destroyers are seriously outnumbered by their American counterparts[/QUOTE]
Not with Halsey's original planned TF34 .. the one that he planned to leave behind at San Bernadino while he charged forward against Ozawa

That had only 14 DD to 13 with the Center force

The Japanese DDs alone had more and better torps that the USN force
and the Japanese cruisers many more.

It is the USN battle line that is more at risk
 
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Wasn't the Long Lance's range known to the USN by now and therefore the would be aware of the need to prevent the Japanese DDs getting into position to effectively launch them
 
[QUOTE="James Ricker, post: 17034104, member: 98381] their destroyers are seriously outnumbered by their American counterparts
Not with Halsey's original planned TF34 .. the one that he planned to leave behind at San Bernadino while he charged forward against Ozawa

That had only 14 DD to 13 with the Center force

The Japanese DDs alone had more and better torps that the USN force
and the Japanese cruisers many more.

It is the USN battle line that is more at risk[/QUOTE]
The Japanese actually have only 11 DDs, which means the Japanese DDs have considerably fewer torpedoes than their American counterparts (142 to 95) unless you count the reloads, which you shouldn’t, given that it was both tricky to reload torpedoes in battle and many Japanese destroyers had landed their torpedo reloads to free up weight and space for AA.

Worse for the Japanese, the Americans have three Cleveland-class cruisers backing them up, which were practically designed for this kind of fight.

The Japanese heavy cruisers tip the scales somewhat, but even they will get punished if they try to steam into the teeth of a few Cleveland’s, as the battles in the Solomons demonstrated. Honestly, I don’t think anyone’s battleships are likely to get torpedoed here, the screens will be busy dealing with each other.
 
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