"Battle of Midway-B-26 hits the Akagi"

According to several sources I have read about the battle of midway at roughly 7:15:7:45 a crashing B-26 narrowly avoided crashing into the bridge superstructure of the Japanese aircraft carrier Akagi in which the acting commander of the Kidō Butai admiral Nagumo was in at the time. What would have been the consequences if instead of B-26 narrowly missing the bridge but instead crashed into it. What would the effect of having admiral nagumo killed/rendered unable to effectively command do to the japans plan's (would they still go thru with the attack on midway, who would take command next?) and their men (Having your commanding officer die before the battle even begins especially to cowardly Americans can't be good for moral or organization, How would it affect japans organization) in the coming battle (would the attacks from planes from midway and the US Carriers be more effective or the Japanese attacks be less effective then OTL) , and would it be possible that the impact knocks out the Akagi out of action (causes a fire to break out, Damages the lifts) to the point were the Akagi cannot launch its aircraft effectively decreasing the Kidō Butai attack power by 1/4.

Scenario 1. Admiral Nagumo along with the majority of his command staff dies/is rendered unable to effectively command.

Scenario 2. Instead of hitting the bridge the B-26 hits the flight deck effectively rendering the akagi unable to launch aircraft but Nagumo is still alive if fazed.

Scenario 3. Worst case scenario for japan. Nugumo is killed and the Akagi is unable to launch aircraft.
 
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If Nagumo is taken out, Tamon Yamaguchi likely assumes command. His more aggressive strategy could lead to higher American casualties if not a Japanese victory. That being said, even if Yamaguchi does manage to score a decisive victory over the USN, the US garrison at Midway is going to slaughter any Japanese landing forcing them to leave the island in American hands.
 
What do you mean “acting commander Nagumo”?
He was in charge of the Kido Butai at the time while overall commander of the entire Japanese fleet was admiral yamamoto who was in Tokyo and I wanted to try and show that he was only in command of the carries and their escorting ships and not the entire japanese fleet at the battle and couldn't think of a better term to use.
 

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If Nagumo is taken out, Tamon Yamaguchi likely assumes command. His more aggressive strategy could lead to higher American casualties if not a Japanese victory. That being said, even if Yamaguchi does manage to score a decisive victory over the USN, the US garrison at Midway is going to slaughter any Japanese landing forcing them to leave the island in American hands.

With all due deference and respect to the US Marines, Midway is not Iwo Jima or the Hawaiian Islands or Guadalcanal. It's just a lump of sand (o, rather, two lumps of sand) in the middle of the ocean without any defensive features or mountainous terrain. If the battleship portion of the combined fleet gets a chance to close in and pound the island for a good 72 hours, there isn't going to be anyone left alive outside of a foxhole. Picture Tarawa, with the roles reversed, on an even smaller island.
 
With all due deference and respect to the US Marines, Midway is not Iwo Jima or the Hawaiian Islands or Guadalcanal. It's just a lump of sand (o, rather, two lumps of sand) in the middle of the ocean without any defensive features or mountainous terrain. If the battleship portion of the combined fleet gets a chance to close in and pound the island for a good 72 hours, there isn't going to be anyone left alive outside of a foxhole. Picture Tarawa, with the roles reversed, on an even smaller island.

This scenario has been discussed a number of times on this board. Midway may not be Iwo Jima, but the Japanese landing force at Midway is a far cry from the USMC circa 1945. A variant of a Japanese victory at Midway followed up by an attempted invasion was recently discussed here. Below are some highlights from the discussion:
  • The Japanese had almost no idea what the strength of the American garrison was and massively underestimated it. This resulted in the defenders outnumbering the attackers which would be a far cry from what occurred at Tarawa. Poor reconnaissance also meant that they were completely ignorant of the presence of American armor on the island.
  • The IJN did not have anything close to the Naval Gunfire Support doctrine of the USN. Battleships were to be used for the "Decisive Battle" not shore bombardment which was delegated to destroyers and light cruisers. Using battleships for shore bombardment was suggested to Yamamoto in OTL on June 5th and he decisively rejected it. (Shattered Sword p.344)
  • Neither the IJN or the USN had the logistical capability to keep a force deployed by Midway for very long. Thus the timetable for a Japanese invasion would be limited.
  • The Japanese commander of the Army detachment that was to back up the SNLF force was Lt. Col Ichiki who performed disastrously in OTL during the fighting at Guadalcanal.
  • Unlike the Marines at Tarawa, the Japanese troops had nothing resembling an LVT and had no real idea of the reefs surrounding the island. Their troops would be dangerously exposed as soon as they got into the range of American guns and would have to wade a considerable distance before reaching the shore. This is probably where the Tarawa comparison is most apt.
Given the Japanese landing force's deficiencies in numbers, doctrine, and equipment I can't see them defeating the Marine garrison in this scenario. In all likelihood, the landing force is slaughtered and the Japanese are forced to retreat due to a lack of fuel and attempt a second invasion at a later date.
 
The B26 crash is right up their with the Nautilus getting a hit with a exploding torpedo, or one of the Midway launched dive or torpedo bombers getting a hit. Its disruptive to the carrier group & degrades operations.
 
He was in charge of the Kido Butai at the time while overall commander of the entire Japanese fleet was admiral yamamoto who was in Tokyo and I wanted to try and show that he was only in command of the carries and their escorting ships and not the entire japanese fleet at the battle and couldn't think of a better term to use.


The word "Acting" is confusing still, as it officially means: "Temporary" in Naval Jargon, meaning an officer is assigned to perform a duty not specified by his actual rank at the time the command is assigned to him. Examples of this were Captain Hardy on HMS Victory in the battle of Traffalgar, shortly after Nelson had been mortally wounded. Only after the battle itself, 2nd in Command Vice Admiral Collingwood on HMS Royal Sovereign took over the command of the Mediterranean Fleet (Which was Nelson's Command before that.) Also Rear Admiral Spruance at Midway was assigned as Acting Taskforce Commander of TF-17, as Vice Admiral Halsey was incapacitated at the time.

During Midway, Nagumo was the oficcial Commander of the 1st Carrier Strike Force, as well as 1st carrier Division, and the highest in rank with a Vice Admiral Flag. Rear Admiral Yamaguchi on the 2nd Carrier Division was 2nd in command. So the word Acting is invalid in this discussion, as both were fully assigned officers, besides Nagumo retainign his command all the time, even when shifting flagships. (On Nagara, he maintained overall command of the remnants of the 1st Carrier Strike Force, though not longer having operational carriers at the time, until returned to Japan.)
 
Scenario 1. Admiral Nagumo along with the majority of his command staff dies/is rendered unable to effectively command.

Scenario 2. Instead of hitting the bridge the B-26 hits the flight deck effectively rendering the akagi unable to launch aircraft but Nagumo is still alive if fazed.

Scenario 3. Worst case scenario for japan. Nugumo is killed and the Akagi is unable to launch aircraft.

1 and 3. Yamaguchi takes over command of air operations at about 0712. This is the key. The B-26 crashes into the Akagi just before Nagumo issues his rearm order. Yamaguchi may not issue the order. He will counterattack the US sighting with his three remaining operational carriers, including a torpedo armed element from Kaga. Akagi's Midway air group (18 dive bombers and 9 fighters) will recover to the 2nd division, because Kaga will be recovering its own dive bombers while Soryu and Hiryu will have just launched theirs, so be able to service them. The 2nd Division torpedo bombers are a question mark, but the dive bombers will be rapidly rearmed and launched before 1030. Kaga and Soryu are hit at 1030, but both may survive with fewer aircraft on board. With Akagi and Hiryu there is a question mark - will the attack hit the larger carrier that might be on fire, or the smaller carrier that is intact? The Hiryu may be hit instead of Akagi, seeing all four Japanese carriers out of action by 1030.

2. Nagumo will order another attack on Midway and the battle proceeds probably somewhat like the historical case. Akagi's Midway group will land on the other carriers, (probably on all three) after 0830 and the planes on Akagi will be disarmed and drained of fuel to prevent fire. When the attack comes, Akagi will survive it and withdraw with the fleet, regardless of the fate of the other carriers. In the final counterattack vs. Hiryu, Akagi will still be in formation with fires out and may draw the bulk of the attack away from Hiryu.
 
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