Battle of Lubjanka Gap on Alps in 1944 - Churchill's Soft Underbelly Front succeeds

What if right after Allies landed on Southern Italy at Calabria , Taranto and Salerno in September 1943 , instead of resisting and slowly retreating across Central Italy , German High Command ordered total withdrawal to Apennines and then Austrian Alps next year , leaving Rome , Florance till end of 1943 and quitting Northern Italy next year ? (That was actualy what Hitler intended initially in August-September 1943 after Allies landed in Sicily and Salerno but German Mediterranean Commander Field Marshall Kesselring changed his mind instead and convinced him to defend entire Central and Northern Italy)

What would be overall effect of that on strategy and outcome of war and overall geopolitical situation in post war ?
 
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What if right after Allies landed on Southern Italy at Calabria , Taranto and Salerno in September 1943 , instead of resisting and slowly retreating across Central Italy , German High Command ordered total withdrawal to Apennines and then Austrian Alps next year , leaving Rome , Florance till end of 1943 and quitting Northern Italy next year ? (That was actualy what Hitler intended initially but German Mediterranean Commander Field Marshall Kesselring changed his mind instead and convinced him to defend entire Central and Northern Italy)

What would be overall effect of that on strategy and outcome of war and overall geopolitical situation in post war ?

This will mean that the allies do not need to do Overlord. They can send troops to Italy and then attack the French Riviera. More fighter cover for bombers heading towards Germany
 
Aside from some of this...

... More fighter cover for bombers heading towards Germany

The Allies tie up more cargo shipping importing grain and coal for several million more Italian civilians. That the Italian population had little for food, heat, medical supplies, clothing, after the Germans retreated was lost on Churchill when he pressured Eisenhower, Wilson, and Alexander into further offensives into Italy.

It may or may not encourage a early Operation ANVIL. Without the need to support a beached at Anzio it possible Eisenhower will have the amphibious ships available to execute ANVIL type operation in March or April 1944 as originally planned. That creates interesting problems for the Germans on committing their strategic reserves in the west.

Alternately if Churchill gets his way a Allied army goes into the Balkans, which looks to be to Germanys benefit.
 
Huge butterflies. If this succeeds, the Allies can just pour everything into Italy, do secondary landings in the Balkans, etc. It also likely means that Central Europe does not go to the Soviets (Yalta either butterflied or completely different). Would make for an interesting TL.
 
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