Battle of Lodz what if

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Deleted member 1487

Recently reading the book "The German High Command at War: Hindenburg and Ludendorff conduct world war 1" by Robert Aspery, I came across the section dealing with the battle of Lodz and its aftermath, where German forces suffered 100,000 casualties when Ludendorff tried to take Lodz, the Russian supply hub, by frontal assault in December 1914. The author sites several contemporaries that complained about Hindenburg and Ludendorff being promoted too soon and were not ready for their level of command, as they missed a major opportunity for a local Cannae. The Russian offensive, they insist, was going to collapse due to supply troubles and the weather, not to mention the German fortress system on the border, which all would have left them open to a major riposte that would have netted Germany the Russian 2nd and 5th armies, with part of the 1st in said pocket. All without costing Germany nearly as many casualties and leaving Warsaw open to German forces.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Łódź_(1914)

So my what if is exactly this: Hoffmann suggests letting the Russians attack into the German fortresses, which would be backed up by Mackensen's 9th army, letting them batter themselves against German defenses before moving in on the depleted flanks and creating a mega-Tannenberg? Do you think this is even possible and what sort of aftermath are we looking at?

To add a bit of extra info, OberOst, German command in the East, was given the 4 newly formed reserve corps that were used at Ypres in December, which means that they would have had two armies to pull this off if they had waited...

My instincts say yes, this was very possible. In fact, it would be a major blow the Russians would have had a very hard time recovering from and it would force them to divert major forces from the Austrian front, doing far more to aid their beleaguered ally than what happened historically. The Tzarist army was known to be incredibly incompetent at just about any sort of organization, supply, or command issue at this point in the war, which gives the Germans a major advantage when trying to pull this off. Historically during the OTL version of the battle, the Russians had cut off a German corps and were preparing to ship 50,000 German prisoners away, when they broke out of the trap and took 16,000 prisoners, all their wounded, and captured enemy artillery with them! All because the Russian generals could not coordinate properly.

The battle would not be conducted until mid-December, but if properly pulled off, the Russians would lose their 2nd, 5th, and most of the 1st army. That is a major haul that would leave the Northwest Front eviscerated, prompting the entire Southwest Front to fall back taking the 4th and 9th armies out of the line to move them north behind the Vistula to over Warsaw and the new Vistula line. The Russian 3rd and 8th armies would have to then fall back, as they would be facing 4 Austrians armies (though probably beat up by this point), which might well cause them to abandon the siege of Przemysl, which in turn prevents Conrad from launching his heavily wasteful Carpathian campaign, saving something 800,000 Austrian troops and the garrison of Przemysl.

This has huge implications for 1915 and the course of the war, as the Austrians won't be nearly as worn down and the Russians will be much weaker when the Gorlice-Tarnow analogue happens. Italy might stay out of the war and Serbia could be invaded sooner, preventing the Salonika front from developing. It also frees up more German troops for action in the West, or at least means that they are more likely to be able to inflict more serious harm to the Russians, who now will be lacking irreplaceable officers, NCOs, equipment like artillery, rifles, and machine guns. Any replacement troops have far less material to work with later on. The 2nd Masurian Lakes battle might even be unnecessary, but if not, it would inflict still more irreplaceable losses on the Russian army.

However, I do not think it would end the war, just make it significantly easier for the Germans to win. It would also increase pressure on Falkenhayn to go with the East First strategy.
 
I am a little confused about the 4 corps used at Ypres statement. Are you referring to the 4 "August Volunteers" reserve corps that were used by Fourth Army? Are you suggesting an earlier end to Ypres? Two of those corps (XXI R and XXIV R) were sent to the Eastern Front in Dec along with 3 other corps (there is a mistake in Keegan BTW about one of these corps) Or are you referring to XXXVII thru XXXXI RK which were formed in late Dec which were all sent to Ober Ost and participated in Second Masurian Lakes?

Anyway I have a hard time seeing Ludendorff a best defense is a good offense type of guy going this route. The East Prussian generals also had an aversion to letting the Russian hordes anywhere near German women. Also a Cannae at even a single army level is hard to pull off. At the historical Lodz the Germans got in trouble for a while because they underestimated Plehve's Fifth Army's abilityto change direction and move rapidly.
 

Deleted member 1487

I would be referring to the August volunteers.
They would be available in December, but before the Lodz battle began, Falkenhayn informed OberOst they would be getting them eventually.

You're right, Ludendorff was not the best type for this kind of plan, but its not like the civilians could not be evacuated.

As to the actual plan, the 9th army would stay in place, holding parts of the Russian 4th and 5th armies, funneling the latter northward into the German fortress system, which would be backed up by some forces removed from the 9th army. The Russians run into said system, of course using roads and rail lines sabotaged by German forces, which means their logistics have fallen apart. Once the August volunteers are available they form a 10th army to the north and attack in conjunction with the 9th army to the south, closing the bag further East, leaving at least 8 enemy corps in the bag.

The maneuverability of the Russians would be much much worse here, as they would be advancing into a prepared zone where the logistics have been sabotaged. As it was, the Germans attacked the logistics hub of Lodz, which enabled the Russians to use their intact rail system to move the 5th army around. Here that would not be an option, as the supply lines would be stretched just supplying armies staying in place.
 
Falkenhayn did send 4 corps to Ober Ost in late Nov/early Dec: II, III Reserve, XIII (not XII as listed in Keegan!), XXI Reserve (an August Volunteer formation). Some of these were used in the relatively Second Battle of Lodz (around 6 Dec) He also sent the XXIV Reserve Corps (another bunch of August Volunteers) to shore up the AH forces in the Carpathians.

So are you suggesting that XXII and XXIII RK go east as well or in lieu of two of the corps that were railed east?. Instead of calling it Tenth Army why not still call it Forth Army though probably with a different commander as I doubt H+L would want Duke Albert?

I have my doubts about this funneling north. If the larger Russian force wants to go into Silesia that's where they'll go. So it's in front of Posen and Breslau and not the northern forts where your big battle will occur.
 

Deleted member 1487

Falkenhayn did send 4 corps to Ober Ost in late Nov/early Dec: II, III Reserve, XIII (not XII as listed in Keegan!), XXI Reserve (an August Volunteer formation). Some of these were used in the relatively Second Battle of Lodz (around 6 Dec) He also sent the XXIV Reserve Corps (another bunch of August Volunteers) to shore up the AH forces in the Carpathians.

So are you suggesting that XXII and XXIII RK go east as well or in lieu of two of the corps that were railed east?. Instead of calling it Tenth Army why not still call it Forth Army though probably with a different commander as I doubt H+L would want Duke Albert?

I have my doubts about this funneling north. If the larger Russian force wants to go into Silesia that's where they'll go. So it's in front of Posen and Breslau and not the northern forts where your big battle will occur.

I was misinformed that the 4 August volunteer corps headed East for the 2nd battle of Lodz. What I am suggesting here is that the 1st battle never occurs, as the Russians are allowed to advance and attack the German forts between Thorn, Posen, and north of Breslau. The map that is in the wiki link seems to be off, as in Norman Stone's version the German 9th army is actually further north than in the wiki map. This would shield Breslau, but you are right in that the Germans are likely to attack from around that area for what I am suggesting.

II, III Reserve, XIII, XXI Reserve will form the new army (10th or new 4th army) near Thorn, with attached cavalry formations from the west, at least those that can be spared from occupation duties. Basically the Germans then would just have to push the flanks, as the Russians would already be overextended. Its just a matter of closing the pocket. Of course this would require operational surprise, which the Germans had proven themselves very much capable of at this stage in the war, especially in relation to their Russian foe, whose wireless messages were still being read even at this late date.
 
It's an interesting what-if, but that's about all I can say on the matter...you've laid it out pretty clearly. :)
 
Stone Maps

The maps in Stone have their share of flaws. There are 2 on opposite pages which have the same distance scale. One is clearly wrong.

Then there is another weird which is tilted ie. the top of the page is not north but close to 30 degrees off.

In Arthur Banks there is an interesting Lodz map. It shows First Army heading for Thorn through Plock while Second and Fifth Armies seem heading towards Breslau.
 

Deleted member 1487

The maps in Stone have their share of flaws. There are 2 on opposite pages which have the same distance scale. One is clearly wrong.

Then there is another weird which is tilted ie. the top of the page is not north but close to 30 degrees off.

In Arthur Banks there is an interesting Lodz map. It shows First Army heading for Thorn through Plock while Second and Fifth Armies seem heading towards Breslau.

Does anyone have any information about German forts along the Eastern borders?

It would seem you are correct. The Banks book has the 2nd and 5th armies advancing right into the German 9th armies. Perhaps if the transferred corps from the Austrian 2nd army is shifted to the north to meet the Russian 2nd army's advance on Breslau with the remaining units from the 8th army helping to support Thorn, the Russians are then drawn in and fixed attacking fortified positions far beyond their usable rail lines. When December rolls around and the 4 additional corps are available, they can be used to envelope the Russian 1st army and push south to close the pocket from the North. Then the German 9th army can exploit the weakened 5th army's overextended position through an attack, hopefully splitting the Russian 4th and 5th armies, while leaving behind a corps or two to cover the 4th army as they advance. Though probably not as successful as I predicted initially, it would at least waste Russian strength before the German riposte takes place.

Working the vulnerable flanks instead of frontally charging down the Russian armies has got to be more profitable for the Germans. Of course to pull this off Ludendorff would probably have to suffer an accident so as not to be part of the planning of the battle. Frankly the man was constantly nervous and couldn't take any sort of risk without his 'nerves being shot' as a result. Hoffmann details his personality in his diaries, which portray a very unflattering image. He comes across sounding like a chihuahua.
 
Does anyone have any information about German forts along the Eastern borders?

It would seem you are correct. The Banks book has the 2nd and 5th armies advancing right into the German 9th armies. Perhaps if the transferred corps from the Austrian 2nd army is shifted to the north to meet the Russian 2nd army's advance on Breslau with the remaining units from the 8th army helping to support Thorn, the Russians are then drawn in and fixed attacking fortified positions far beyond their usable rail lines. When December rolls around and the 4 additional corps are available, they can be used to envelope the Russian 1st army and push south to close the pocket from the North. Then the German 9th army can exploit the weakened 5th army's overextended position through an attack, hopefully splitting the Russian 4th and 5th armies, while leaving behind a corps or two to cover the 4th army as they advance. Though probably not as successful as I predicted initially, it would at least waste Russian strength before the German riposte takes place.

Working the vulnerable flanks instead of frontally charging down the Russian armies has got to be more profitable for the Germans. Of course to pull this off Ludendorff would probably have to suffer an accident so as not to be part of the planning of the battle. Frankly the man was constantly nervous and couldn't take any sort of risk without his 'nerves being shot' as a result. Hoffmann details his personality in his diaries, which portray a very unflattering image. He comes across sounding like a chihuahua.

Hmm it was more than one corps of KuK Second Army that got moved. IIRC it was 4-5 divisions plus Army HQ. (someone on AustroHungarian Army Board once posted the exact composition) Conrad only did this in desperation because Ludendorff left on Gd R Division and Landwehr Corps to guard the left flank of KuK First Army and Conrad realized than was insufficient. However the move of Second Army left the right flank of KuK Third Army exposed to Brusilov's Eighth Army which is what led to Przemysl being invested again.

Another thing to factor in is the German temporary divisions. Two of them were formed from the Posen garrison in mid-November and were for a while called Posen Corps.

I basically agree about Ludendorff being a poor choice to pull this off. Perhaps your POD has Hindenburg replacing Prittwitz but the chief of staff Waldersee not being replaced by Ludendorff.
 

Deleted member 1487

I was actually going to use that POD for my reworked Marne without Moltke TL. Falkenhayn would not have sent Ludendorff East, so instead Waldersee remains, which of course changes things heavily, as Hoffmann would gain much more influnce over old Hindenburg.

Now do you have any info about the temporary divisions? I get confused as to what was formed when and where everything was throughout 1914, even though I have Cron's German Army handbook. Same thing with just about every army during 1914.
 

Deleted member 1487

Hmm it was more than one corps of KuK Second Army that got moved. IIRC it was 4-5 divisions plus Army HQ. (someone on AustroHungarian Army Board once posted the exact composition) Conrad only did this in desperation because Ludendorff left on Gd R Division and Landwehr Corps to guard the left flank of KuK First Army and Conrad realized than was insufficient. However the move of Second Army left the right flank of KuK Third Army exposed to Brusilov's Eighth Army which is what led to Przemysl being invested again.

As to this issue, I was given the impression that the Austrians were being pushed back anyway and the 2 corps taken from the 2nd army were not enough to really change the ultimate outcome. But then again I don't really have a source in English on those battles. I suppose I should try to brush up on my German and grind through the Austrian official history...
 
Temporary divisions

I was actually going to use that POD for my reworked Marne without Moltke TL. Falkenhayn would not have sent Ludendorff East, so instead Waldersee remains, which of course changes things heavily, as Hoffmann would gain much more influnce over old Hindenburg.

Now do you have any info about the temporary divisions? I get confused as to what was formed when and where everything was throughout 1914, even though I have Cron's German Army handbook. Same thing with just about every army during 1914.

The temp divisions are a pain. One strategy to get a handle on them is to go to Cron. Find the permanent division they eventually get turned into (however I've found one mistake in Cron) and then go to The History of 250 Divisions which is now online here

http://books.google.com/books?id=Vf...&hl=en#v=onepage&q="niemen army" 1915&f=false

Look up the permanent division and it will tell you what they did when they were a temp division. I know that at least 2 of them played a role in First Lodz though I think they arrived late in the battle. There used to be a detailed game on the web about Lodz and promoting the game were a lot of cool free stuff incl.a powerpoint presentation of both First Lodz and Second Lodz. I looked for them again yesterday and could not find them though.
 
As to this issue, I was given the impression that the Austrians were being pushed back anyway and the 2 corps taken from the 2nd army were not enough to really change the ultimate outcome. But then again I don't really have a source in English on those battles. I suppose I should try to brush up on my German and grind through the Austrian official history...

there used to be an interesting resource about the KuK army here http://www.geocities.com/veldes1/ but geocities is no more and I have yet to find where they moved.

The entire AH army was moving backwards during all of November but the move of Second Army aggravated the problems on their right flank.
 

Deleted member 1487

The temp divisions are a pain. One strategy to get a handle on them is to go to Cron. Find the permanent division they eventually get turned into (however I've found one mistake in Cron) and then go to The History of 250 Divisions which is now online here

http://books.google.com/books?id=Vf...&hl=en#v=onepage&q="niemen army" 1915&f=false

Look up the permanent division and it will tell you what they did when they were a temp division. I know that at least 2 of them played a role in First Lodz though I think they arrived late in the battle. There used to be a detailed game on the web about Lodz and promoting the game were a lot of cool free stuff incl.a powerpoint presentation of both First Lodz and Second Lodz. I looked for them again yesterday and could not find them though.


I have looked at that online book before, but over at the Great War forum there seems to be a number of people who claim that there are too many factual errors to take it seriously. I don't remember specifics, but they were worrisome.
 

Deleted member 1487

Overall, is this kind of strategy really possible? The major problem won't be the Russians falling apart on the attack, as there are too many examples of that all throughout 1914 and even later, but that the Germans will be able to close the pocket with all these Russian troops in it during the month of December.
 
What did Voltaire say?

I have looked at that online book before, but over at the Great War forum there seems to be a number of people who claim that there are too many factual errors to take it seriously. I don't remember specifics, but they were worrisome.

Hmm Mosier was very critical of the errors in The History of the 250 Divisions but I am pretty sure there are some but all in all not appreciably worse than those in The Myth of the Great War LOL.

You seem to think that there is some perfect history of WWI floating around in Plato's Realm of Ideas. I like Arthur Bank's picture book but he has Jean Bart being sunk by an Austrian sub. I have already mentioned one mistake in Keegan the Overrated. Here is another. On p 231 of the paper back version he has the Germans capturing 3,000 guns during the Gorlice Tarnow offensive. That number can't be right. One of the problems of that offensive was that the Russian artillery was usually escaping. I think that was another typo and he meant 300 and that brings us to a more systemic problem in Keegan that he almost always rounds numbers to the disadvantage of the CP.
I've seen a count of the lost Russian guns as 400 somewhere else.
 

Deleted member 1487

Is it wrong to demand perfection in my histories? It is quite crucial for crafting a serious time line.
However, I do understand that there will be much uncertainty in histories of any event and appreciate anything I can get my hands on. As it is, so much of the data has been lost, distorted, and/or deliberately falsified, so it becomes difficult to sift through it all sometimes. Right now I am just trying to discover what concerns that I must have when working with the material on hand. But to the issue at hand, do you think the POD is feasible and that the results are possible?
 
Best case scenario

Is it wrong to demand perfection in my histories? It is quite crucial for crafting a serious time line.
However, I do understand that there will be much uncertainty in histories of any event and appreciate anything I can get my hands on. As it is, so much of the data has been lost, distorted, and/or deliberately falsified, so it becomes difficult to sift through it all sometimes. Right now I am just trying to discover what concerns that I must have when working with the material on hand. But to the issue at hand, do you think the POD is feasible and that the results are possible?

Have you ever looked at Pollard BTW? He is a notch more interested in the Eastern Front than most Anglocentric WWI historians. One of his quirks is he is a big fan of Ruszki who was in charge of NW Front at this time. I do not totally agree with this but Ruszki did have his moments and tended to err on the side of caution.

OK so how might this play out? In late Nov German Ninth Army is still backpedaling allowing the Russian Fifth Army to take Czestochowa which will make Conrad unhappy. Making him even more unhappy is the Russian Fourth and Ninth Armies are approaching his HQ at Cracow. Up north the nucleus of German Tenth Army is formed at Thorn with I Reserve and XXV Reserve Corps.
These are fending off Rennenkampf's First Army (I view Rennenkampf as inconsistently aggressive) at the fortress.

Schiedemann's Second Army is slowly making for Breslau which is defended by Woyrsch Group reinforced with 2 temp and 1 cav div. As Plehve lunges Beuthen the German Ninth Army finally digs in its heels. The KuK Second Army
does likewise against Evert's Fourth Army.

On 3 Dec the German Tenth Army which has been reinforced with the 4 corps brought from the Western Front counterattacks out of Graudenz. First Army is quickly defeated and sent reeling to Kutno and Plock. The German Tenth Army pursues.

On 4 Dec the German Ninth Army goes on the offensive against the Fifth Army which has been seriously weakened by bashing itself against German entrenchments and a lack of supplies.
 

Deleted member 1487

Have you ever looked at Pollard BTW? He is a notch more interested in the Eastern Front than most Anglocentric WWI historians. One of his quirks is he is a big fan of Ruszki who was in charge of NW Front at this time. I do not totally agree with this but Ruszki did have his moments and tended to err on the side of caution.

OK so how might this play out? In late Nov German Ninth Army is still backpedaling allowing the Russian Fifth Army to take Czestochowa which will make Conrad unhappy. Making him even more unhappy is the Russian Fourth and Ninth Armies are approaching his HQ at Cracow. Up north the nucleus of German Tenth Army is formed at Thorn with I Reserve and XXV Reserve Corps.
These are fending off Rennenkampf's First Army (I view Rennenkampf as inconsistently aggressive) at the fortress.

Schiedemann's Second Army is slowly making for Breslau which is defended by Woyrsch Group reinforced with 2 temp and 1 cav div. As Plehve lunges Beuthen the German Ninth Army finally digs in its heels. The KuK Second Army
does likewise against Evert's Fourth Army.

On 3 Dec the German Tenth Army which has been reinforced with the 4 corps brought from the Western Front counterattacks out of Graudenz. First Army is quickly defeated and sent reeling to Kutno and Plock. The German Tenth Army pursues.

On 4 Dec the German Ninth Army goes on the offensive against the Fifth Army which has been seriously weakened by bashing itself against German entrenchments and a lack of supplies.

Quick question, why is the Austrian 2nd army to the right of the German 9th? Wouldn't the 9th army staying in place allow the Austrians to keep their 2nd army units in Galicia, while keeping Dankl's 1st army as the army bordering the Germans?


Not bad really. Would the Russian armies be able to withdraw their artillery in enough time to avoid being caught in the pocket? Even if the Russians manage to extract the majority of their men, which is dubious at best, the loss of heavy equipment would cripple any units which did escape.

Also, with the German 9th army would they be able to detach a corps or so to help the Austrians push back the Russian 4th army, ie to widen the gap and prevent lateral reinforcements from arriving? At this point the Russian 5th army, the German 9th's opponent had only 3 corps, which would, I imagine, be considerably reduced in quality. It would make sense that a 4 corps army like the 9th, which IMO would have around 2-3 cavalry divisions attached, would detach one to cover their flank against the Russian 4th.

So far it looks like the Russian 2nd army would be the big loser here. It is in the center of the offensive and would have to pull back into its central logistics center at Lodz, which would be crammed with units from the retreating 1st and 5th armies looking for a way out of the closing trap. I reckon that the Russians 1st army gets off the best, being able to retreat and pull enough of it men out (~50%), but losing lots of heavy equipment and all its wounded. I also foresee lots of desertions on the Russian side due to the supply situation and the general mess that the Germans make when they counter attack.

The 5th army gets off pretty bad, but is able to withdraw about 30% of its men, though also missing much of its equipment. The 2nd army probably is completely trapped and loses everything (or very nearly so). At this point the Russians would be running to the Vistula and Warsaw to shield themselves with the river and forts there, but this would then mean the Russians all down the line would be forced to withdraw too to avoid any flank attacks.

But is this enough to cause the Southwest Front to pull back to the San and to drop their siege of Przemsyl?
 
Quick question, why is the Austrian 2nd army to the right of the German 9th? Wouldn't the 9th army staying in place allow the Austrians to keep their 2nd army units in Galicia, while keeping Dankl's 1st army as the army bordering the Germans?


Not bad really. Would the Russian armies be able to withdraw their artillery in enough time to avoid being caught in the pocket? Even if the Russians manage to extract the majority of their men, which is dubious at best, the loss of heavy equipment would cripple any units which did escape.

Also, with the German 9th army would they be able to detach a corps or so to help the Austrians push back the Russian 4th army, ie to widen the gap and prevent lateral reinforcements from arriving? At this point the Russian 5th army, the German 9th's opponent had only 3 corps, which would, I imagine, be considerably reduced in quality. It would make sense that a 4 corps army like the 9th, which IMO would have around 2-3 cavalry divisions attached, would detach one to cover their flank against the Russian 4th.

So far it looks like the Russian 2nd army would be the big loser here. It is in the center of the offensive and would have to pull back into its central logistics center at Lodz, which would be crammed with units from the retreating 1st and 5th armies looking for a way out of the closing trap. I reckon that the Russians 1st army gets off the best, being able to retreat and pull enough of it men out (~50%), but losing lots of heavy equipment and all its wounded. I also foresee lots of desertions on the Russian side due to the supply situation and the general mess that the Germans make when they counter attack.

The 5th army gets off pretty bad, but is able to withdraw about 30% of its men, though also missing much of its equipment. The 2nd army probably is completely trapped and loses everything (or very nearly so). At this point the Russians would be running to the Vistula and Warsaw to shield themselves with the river and forts there, but this would then mean the Russians all down the line would be forced to withdraw too to avoid any flank attacks.

But is this enough to cause the Southwest Front to pull back to the San and to drop their siege of Przemsyl?

Hmm I thought you were the one leaning towards still having the KuK Second Army make its wide swing (which took a while to implement while more efficient than Russian RR the Austrians are not as good as the Germans)

The best of best cases goes like this. When things come undone both Schiedemann's Second Army and Plehve's Fifth Army fall back towards Lodz. With a major German counterattack pinning him it is hard for Plehve to fall back rapidly. So there is a battle around Lodz between German Tenth and Russian Second Army (with Russian First Army probably with a new commander) trying to reenter the fray sort of like OTL. The German Tenth Army drives the Russians out of Lodz before Plehve arrives what you get is Fifth Army and what's left of Second Army and maybe even a corps of First Army crushed between between the two German armies near Piotrkow.

OK there is now a point that needs to be raised about Tannenberg. Most the prisoners who were taken by the Germans were captured by von Francois' I Army Corps who used unconventional tactics. Furthermore Samsonov went into a deep depression and did little to breakout. I do not see the same happening to von Plehve. So I expect the pocket to leak more than it did at Tannenberg. However if the Germans take most of the Russian artillery then 40,000 or so Russian soldiers low on supplies trying to reach Warsaw is a modest disappointment.

One thing to add is that exposure casualties on both sides are likely to be high.
 
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