Battle of Jutland what ifs

So during the Battle of Jutland 99 German Surface Naval vessels faced off against 151 British Surface vessels of various types, battleships to whatever. The Germans sank 14 the British sank 11. What if the British had sunk all 99 German ships? What effect would that of had on the Germans? Also what if along side those 99 German vessels 150 out of 151 British Naval vessels were sunk? What is the effect on moral and the out come of the war then? Also what was the state of the navies of the Entente and the Central Powers other than Germany and Britain? Could the other powers have something like that happen to them? Where all or nearly all ships are sunk?
 
Worse British shells combined with the Germans adopting heaver guns earlier and Beatty's ammunition procedures being adopted fleet wide would increase British losses. Putting Beatty in direct command of the fleet would increase losses even more.
150 British losses would be hard to achieve.
A catastrophic defeat of the Royal Navy would break the blockade and destroy British morale.
 
Presumably all combatants declare an immediate ceasefire and join forces to destroy the Kraken that's appeared and wiped out their fleets in the North Sea.

The OP scenario is completely ASB.
 

Ramontxo

Donor
If the RN is wiped out and the Germans win comand of the sea they have won the war. But that is highly (very very highly) improbable Up to ASB levels
 

Ramontxo

Donor
The German plan of catching a portion of the Grand Fleet un a trap and sinking It. And taking in acount that the British were reading the German wireless traffic still not that probable IMHO
 
The German plan of catching a portion of the Grand Fleet un a trap and sinking It. And taking in acount that the British were reading the German wireless traffic still not that probable IMHO
What would issue from these three scenarios:
1. Clear German victory under the plan you just mentioned
2. Mild German victory
3. Massive British victory
 
What would a more realistic but still decisive German victory look like?
Serious British losses (>10 capital ships sunk) and light (historical) German ones will be a huge game changer.
1. Germany gains a huge morale boost. There is a lot of praise for KM and probably more resources.
2. British morale is serious damaged. There will be an invasion panic and hence demands for defense at home. This will politically necessitate changes in troop deployments.
3. Germany gains friends and influence, it looks like they're winning. Probably Romania remains neutral.
4. Britain loses friends and influence. They look weak and open to defeat. This makes their lies (especially the Dominions) wonder about supporting the war. This is even more true for the US where Britain looks like a poor investment. Expect credit and loans to be somewhat more difficult and expensive to obtain. This will have knock on effects.
5. So what to the Germans do to exploit their victory? Remember most of their heavy ships will be damaged. Perhaps a spot of coastal raiding (more panic)? Or a break out into the Atlantic to deal with shipping from the Americas? Or disruption of the cross-Channel troops and supply convoys?
6. There would be effects on Verdun and especially the Somme. If troop numbers are lower a German victory with heavier British casualties might happen.
 
The German plan of catching a portion of the Grand Fleet un a trap and sinking It. And taking in acount that the British were reading the German wireless traffic still not that probable IMHO
And there is an interesting PoD to justify a different Jutland.
 
Serious British losses (>10 capital ships sunk) and light (historical) German ones will be a huge game changer.
1. Germany gains a huge morale boost. There is a lot of praise for KM and probably more resources.
2. British morale is serious damaged. There will be an invasion panic and hence demands for defense at home. This will politically necessitate changes in troop deployments.
3. Germany gains friends and influence, it looks like they're winning. Probably Romania remains neutral.
4. Britain loses friends and influence. They look weak and open to defeat. This makes their lies (especially the Dominions) wonder about supporting the war. This is even more true for the US where Britain looks like a poor investment. Expect credit and loans to be somewhat more difficult and expensive to obtain. This will have knock on effects.
5. So what to the Germans do to exploit their victory? Remember most of their heavy ships will be damaged. Perhaps a spot of coastal raiding (more panic)? Or a break out into the Atlantic to deal with shipping from the Americas? Or disruption of the cross-Channel troops and supply convoys?
6. There would be effects on Verdun and especially the Somme. If troop numbers are lower a German victory with heavier British casualties might happen.

Have the U-boat screens actually succeed in sinking a few capital ships, or even just a cruiser or two, cutting off the Grand Fleet battle line from the Battlecruisers entirely or just by some hours of delay, that could get you the decisive victory against Beatty given the less than stellar gunnery, bad ammunition handling, faulty shells and potentially weak armor that made golden BB hits more likely for Germany. So all the Battlecruisers get sunk or mauled sufficient to be virtual losses, the escorting Battleships take a beating, Germany suffers only its losses. Or have the German battle line catch those BBs and finish them as the British BBs are too late to join, possibly from missed, misread or too late in coming wireless intercepts that put Jelicoe too far off the arrive and catch the HSF at all. Not the super victory for Germany in the OP but plausible and maybe as far reaching in impact.
 
Just almost finished reading Massies Castles of Steel

My conclusions from reading the book is that on several occasions the Germans were increadibly lucky to escape with so few losses

For example had Beattie actually spoken to 5th BS the 4 QEs would have engaged at the same time (or earlier given their 15" guns longer range and more modern Fire control) than the Battle Crusiers

When they did eventually join the fight late into 'the run to the south' their gunnery was instantly effective and in the short period of time they were engaged before the HSF turned up, they caused far more damage to Hippers Battle Crusiers than the 2 Squadrons of Beatties Battle Cruisers managed to cause during the entire action.

It is very likely that had the 5th BS and the 4 Queen Elizabeth Class Fast Battleships remained with the Battlecruisers Hippers small fleet would have been in serious trouble and several of his ships would undoubtidly have been lost.

During the subsequant run to the North again had Beatties 'grip' been better (ie retaining control of said 5th BS) and his communication with Jellicoe been even mediocre in nature then its likely the Grand fleet would have been able to intercept the HSF earlier and been able to inflict far more serious damage than they were able due to Sheer turning away

Also Beatties late interception of Hippers BCs who were almost all knackered by that stage in the battle was potentially capable of sinking all of Hippers remnaining BC (some of which arrived at the Jade river with their bows under water) - this last action of the day which might have totally wrested any type of initiative remaining from the German fleet by sinking several of the BCs was a wasted opportunity when Beattie changed targets to the German Pre-Dreadnoughts which suddenly emerged from the murky weather only to then extract themselves.

Lastly the British were reading the german Mail - had there been a better way of managing this or even providing Jellicoe of everythign Room 40 had decoded (allowing him to make better informed decisions)then again its very likely that teh German losses would be higher.

For the Germans to inflict more damage on the British we have to ignore one very large fact - that is Sheer is going to run like Feth (and quite correctly too) as soon as he reaslises that he is not the hunter but in fact the hunted - he is not hanging around to fight the Grand Fleet - in fact following his sucessful turn away from the grand fleet manouvre - his subsequant decision to turn about and have 'another go' is universally derided as unexplainable - an act of lunacy

So while it is fairly easy to see a few minor pods reulsting in more serious loses to the HSF and Hipper BCs and to a lesser extent some additional losses to the Grand fleet - the idea of the entire fleet on one side or the other being totally wiped out is highly improbable and enters this POD into the realm of ASB.
 
Just almost finished reading Massies Castles of Steel

My conclusions from reading the book is that on several occasions the Germans were increadibly lucky to escape with so few losses

For example had Beattie actually spoken to 5th BS the 4 QEs would have engaged at the same time (or earlier given their 15" guns longer range and more modern Fire control) than the Battle Crusiers

When they did eventually join the fight late into 'the run to the south' their gunnery was instantly effective and in the short period of time they were engaged before the HSF turned up, they caused far more damage to Hippers Battle Crusiers than the 2 Squadrons of Beatties Battle Cruisers managed to cause during the entire action.

It is very likely that had the 5th BS and the 4 Queen Elizabeth Class Fast Battleships remained with the Battlecruisers Hippers small fleet would have been in serious trouble and several of his ships would undoubtidly have been lost.

During the subsequant run to the North again had Beatties 'grip' been better (ie retaining control of said 5th BS) and his communication with Jellicoe been even mediocre in nature then its likely the Grand fleet would have been able to intercept the HSF earlier and been able to inflict far more serious damage than they were able due to Sheer turning away

Also Beatties late interception of Hippers BCs who were almost all knackered by that stage in the battle was potentially capable of sinking all of Hippers remnaining BC (some of which arrived at the Jade river with their bows under water) - this last action of the day which might have totally wrested any type of initiative remaining from the German fleet by sinking several of the BCs was a wasted opportunity when Beattie changed targets to the German Pre-Dreadnoughts which suddenly emerged from the murky weather only to then extract themselves.

Lastly the British were reading the german Mail - had there been a better way of managing this or even providing Jellicoe of everythign Room 40 had decoded (allowing him to make better informed decisions)then again its very likely that teh German losses would be higher.

For the Germans to inflict more damage on the British we have to ignore one very large fact - that is Sheer is going to run like Feth (and quite correctly too) as soon as he reaslises that he is not the hunter but in fact the hunted - he is not hanging around to fight the Grand Fleet - in fact following his sucessful turn away from the grand fleet manouvre - his subsequant decision to turn about and have 'another go' is universally derided as unexplainable - an act of lunacy

So while it is fairly easy to see a few minor pods reulsting in more serious loses to the HSF and Hipper BCs and to a lesser extent some additional losses to the Grand fleet - the idea of the entire fleet on one side or the other being totally wiped out is highly improbable and enters this POD into the realm of ASB.

Jutland proved that the German navy was quite competent and their ships could withstand punishment, like the RN they had flaws but if anything proved far more serious a threat to British supremacy than I think the RN would care to concede. My question is rather than roll more sixes for the HSF, what your opinion is on having the submarine screen impact the battle. If the Grand Fleet main body sights, is attacked or takes a loss from submarines I think it can put Beatty out alone longer. Assuming he is not simply recalled and continues his hunt for the German Battlecruisers, can we get him taking more losses?

So the battle proceeds according, resulting in the loss of three Battlecruisers, the variable might be no luck at all aboard HMS Lion, and she is lost too? But saving her gets us to when Beatty learns the HSF itself is steaming up. Does he break contact, his 3 BC and 4 BB only facing the 5 German ships, some damaged? If so I think Jutland is more the strategic victory German seeks, they are looking to repeat it, learning from it and improving the submarine screens that here both reported the Grand Fleet and managed to disrupt it.

Or do we roll a six and have Beatty try to even things up, maybe the report on the HSF is missed or does not get sent, so he stays after the fight. We know the BBs can destroy the German ships, but have we put them in the grip of the HSF main body? How does our 7 ship group do versus the now coalescing HSF? If you want a grand victory at Jutland this is the best I can sketch, the defeat in detail sought at each turn, we merely need Jellicoe misled still and tripped upon the submarine screen, delayed or even worse turned back, since I think Beatty will sail into the jaws of defeat given the opportunity. I think with even an hour delay in arriving, Jellicoe is too late and Jutland can be both a tactical and strategic coup for Germany. And we now might assume there will be another big naval battle in WW1.
 
Jutland proved that the German navy was quite competent and their ships could withstand punishment, like the RN they had flaws but if anything proved far more serious a threat to British supremacy than I think the RN would care to concede. My question is rather than roll more sixes for the HSF, what your opinion is on having the submarine screen impact the battle. If the Grand Fleet main body sights, is attacked or takes a loss from submarines I think it can put Beatty out alone longer. Assuming he is not simply recalled and continues his hunt for the German Battlecruisers, can we get him taking more losses?

So the battle proceeds according, resulting in the loss of three Battlecruisers, the variable might be no luck at all aboard HMS Lion, and she is lost too? But saving her gets us to when Beatty learns the HSF itself is steaming up. Does he break contact, his 3 BC and 4 BB only facing the 5 German ships, some damaged? If so I think Jutland is more the strategic victory German seeks, they are looking to repeat it, learning from it and improving the submarine screens that here both reported the Grand Fleet and managed to disrupt it.

Or do we roll a six and have Beatty try to even things up, maybe the report on the HSF is missed or does not get sent, so he stays after the fight. We know the BBs can destroy the German ships, but have we put them in the grip of the HSF main body? How does our 7 ship group do versus the now coalescing HSF? If you want a grand victory at Jutland this is the best I can sketch, the defeat in detail sought at each turn, we merely need Jellicoe misled still and tripped upon the submarine screen, delayed or even worse turned back, since I think Beatty will sail into the jaws of defeat given the opportunity. I think with even an hour delay in arriving, Jellicoe is too late and Jutland can be both a tactical and strategic coup for Germany. And we now might assume there will be another big naval battle in WW1.

That was actually part of Sheers plan - in fact the first part was to have the Grand fleet sail over a line a U-boats - it failed miserably and in fact only added to the confusion as not only did no U-boat attack a RN warship but single squadrons of battleships were reported heading North East and so Sheer was under the impression that only part of the Grand fleet was at sea and heading away from the area.

In WW1 uboats might be okay for attacking slow moving merchant men or slowly maneuvering / stopped warships but due to the technology of the day were not very good at attacking a maneuvering warship at cruising speed with escorting DD and cruisers.

In WW1 it is best to think of U-boats as 'smart mines' that can barely maneuver - a Dreadnought would have to almost run it over in order to be in with a chance of being torpedoed.

And if Sheer learns that the Grand fleet is afoot at sea in full strength and hunting him then it is Hipper who gets recalled - Sheer is not about to fight a disadvantageous battle when he can help it (notwithstanding his insane decision to turn about and give the Grand fleet a second chance to shoot the shit out of his force late in the battle)

As for Beatty - he is no mug - when he heard the HSF was on the horizon he stayed only long enough to satisfy himself that it was the case before beginning the run to the north (again not really letting 5th BS know what he was about!) and his force is capable of out running the HSF and with 5th BS closed up - more than out gunning Hippers force if it attempted to pursue unsupported by the HSF.
 
Jutland is late in the war for the Germans to achieve a blow out naval victory. Scarborough raid Dec 1914 is the much better one.

Sticking with Jutland... Much of it rests on Beatty, he was a very poor commander IMO. Whats needed is for the confusion to be worse.

Maybe just before Beatty orders his command north at 16:40 Lion takes a hit to the Flag Bridge. The hit doesn’t kill Beatty does delay him giving the turn order. Command confusion on the British part at this moment would be the worst possible result. Battle Cruiser Fleet and 5th Battle Squadron continues to head south IE towards HSF while the later heads north. As a WAG every minute the turn order is delay closes the distance between the two forces by 1 KM. If things go bad enough perhaps Beatty is stuck within the Germans gunnery range for some time. What the Germans want to happen now is disabling hits that cause the British ships to be slowed and or suffer steering damage; like Warspite did later in the battle. This allows the Germans to close the range even more.

I STRONGLY doubt the Germans kill more than 2 or 3 more of Beatty ships. Not even Beatty is foolish enough to stick it out vs these odds he will try to break contact and his speed advantage will allow him sooner or later.

Other option is evening

German and British fleets crossed through run another and some combat did occur but it wasn’t general. Have a brawl occur at night; that would greatly favor the Germans. The Germans had the trained and the gear for it that the British didn’t. Again I doubt a truly blow out battle would result but you could see the Germans manage to pull off some surprising damage. Also a night fight would be a short range battle and that would greatly favor the Germans guns. All British ships had cordite and yah Betty made things worse but if the battle drops to less than 10K meters and that could happen at night things could get ugly. British would be firing at muzzle flashes and fires while the Germans are firing at targets backlighted by starshells.

First option gives the Germans a few more kills, even if some are SDNs of Thomas-Evans 5th battlesquadron the over all balance of force is unchanged. Second option could see some major damage done, the older British DNs have poor belt armor and worse subdivision. Even then lets assume the Germans manage to kill... seven ships at night for a total of 10 BCs and DNs lost. The British blockade is still intact. Even a truly crushing result like the Germans some how managing to kill half the GF the blockade is still intact. The blockade is driven by the following.

1) Location of UK and Germany
2) British economic influence on trade (size of British Merchant Fleet, Bank of London, etc)
3) British cruisers

Most likely if the Germans manage a major victory the big result is the delaying of start of unrestricted submarine warfare. Jutland convinced Scheer he couldn’t win and he flipped to pushing for it. THIS could have big impact on the war.

Michael
 
Top