Battle of Gettysburg question

usertron2020 said:
Well said.:)
TY.;)

Just as an aside, it's the same flaw in Japan's WW2 thinking.

I should also say, I got the idea after listening to Doris Kearns Goodwin :)cool:) talking to Charlie Rose :)cool:) about Team of Rivals. (A great book on politics, & Lincoln.:cool: Tho I confess, by about halfway through, I was starting to say, "Geez, Doris, get on with it!":eek: {I know, she had to set it up, & it wasn't her fault I was impatient.:p I said the same about Prange & Co's Verdict of History.:p})
 
What about Twelfth and Fifth Corps?


As for whether or not its enough . . .

That raises a question, which may influence what kind of help you get.

Are you looking to write a "Lee wins the war, would scenario Y work?" timeline, or are you looking to write a "Lee does Y instead of X, these are the consequences."?

Because I think the former is going to get a lot more rebuttal on the part of myself and usertron on what Lee would face in opposition, because there's no certain outcome and we're both (correct me if I'm wrong, usertron) Army of the Potomac fans.
well i was looking at a map of Union & Confederate movements after the Confederate withdrawal from Gettysburg OTL & the AoP went in two directions south through Emmitsburg & Taneytown & I was just going as if the AoP withdrew from Gettysburg they'd go in two routes. I just picked II & III Corps just cus but it could be either way.

From what all yall have said you pretty much can't get a Confederate victory just with Lee winning a big campaign on northern soil alone & I'm planning on doing some work on stuff in the Western Theater to help get the Confederacy to win but right now I'm still going to focus on this area.

I was just seeing what yall thought on during this campaign, if Lee has already grinded up 4 Corps with much less losses himself, Would he attack the Union lines at Pipe Creek & if he did Could he defeat them finally in a big battle win?
 
The dates I had as I was messing with it was the "Little Gettysburg" occurs of July 1 ending that evening (1)

And this is as intended as OTL? Because this means that Meade has already decided to back Buford, Reynolds (and later Hancock) in their decision to make a stand at Gettysburg. The only question at that point was exactly where, since Meade would now be coming with everything the AotP has, while Lee is out of regular contact with Ewell's Corps, Longstreet is too distant, and Stuart is still missing.

and on July 2 Meade withdraws (2).

What are the ATL events on July 2nd (Day 2) that causes Meade to stay or withdraw? Because if he has found Culps AND Cemetery Hill have been lost by nightfall on Day 1, he's not hanging around to get nailed the next day in an indefensible position, which is what he would be in with those two hills taken. The Round Tops become militarily useless in that situation. He had already decided on the Pipe Creek Line originally, and a large tactical success for Lee will mean proof to him that his first instincts had been correct.

Moreover, it would be left to the even better operational commander Hancock to decide, and he was the best Union battlefield commander they had east of the Appalachia Mountain Range. He would not have made such a mistake, and Meade had already OTL given him the authority as the commander in charge (Meade's direct orders following Reynolds' death) to make the decision on what to do.

Culps and Cemetery Hill being seized by Ewell's and Hill's Corps also means XII Corps has been even more slothful and covered less ground (thanks to their commander), meaning the AotP's position by this time will be closer to the Pipe Creek Line than OTL.

The Emmitsburg battle occurs on July 3 (3)

Why does Meade do that? Why not fall back on his original battle plan? It took until 13:00 July 3rd just to start the bombardment for Pickett's Charge.

Emmitsburg is only 12 miles from Gettysburg (4)

Yes, but the Confederates will be strung out with their forces still advancing on a single road, with the Union having the advantage of multiple roads to fall back on, as well as roads and rail lines running laterally across their line of retreat, allowing rapid mutual support on interior lines. The Confederates will be like a long hardened spearhead being driven into a red hot anvil.

ending that night & the I, II, III, XI Corps remnants of the AoP reach Pipe Creek on July 4. (5)

Remnants? How does Lee convert all these battle hardened Union formations into "remnants"? By Lee running head on against the AotP's Artillery Reserve? See below about other formations. How does Lee in pursuit on a single road become faster than Union troops in retreat on their own ground?

After the Emmitsburg Battle I don't have the ANV moving yet

I would hope not, since most of them will be unable to move from total physical exhaustion. Then there's the whole "I've run out of ammunition and my nearest refreshing ordnance wagons are almost all the way back in Staunton!

I'm waiting to hear if yall think that's enough of the AoP chewed up that Lee can win at Pipe Creek. (6)

No. Lee will be too chewed up himself AND out of ammo. Especially artillery.

What about Twelfth and Fifth Corps? (7)

7) Yes, as I said about "see below" about other formations. There were just too damn many "Damn Yankees" for Lee to do whatever he wanted. Even with the holding of the heights of Gettysburg, it doesn't allow him the ability to just blitzkrieg forward without resistance against an enemy with both superior numbers (growing all the time so much faster than Lee's army at the point of engagement) and the interior lines. Meaning that as Meade retreats, his forces become even more numerous before the AoNV, while Lee's army either stays the same, or gets weaker by forced marching.


As for whether or not its enough . . .

That raises a question, which may influence what kind of help you get.

Are you looking to write a "Lee wins the war, would scenario Y work?" timeline, or are you looking to write a "Lee does Y instead of X, these are the consequences."? (8)

8) AIUI, the OP is looking for a "Lee wins the war, would scenario Y work". BUT, I think he also realizes that he needs to think this through on a factual basis if he wants to avoid a HyperWank.

Because I think the former is going to get a lot more rebuttal on the part of myself and usertron on what Lee would face in opposition, (9)

9) Well, it is a fact that certain TLs are going to draw more attention, particularly those that have a basis that reflect on contemporary issues. As to what opposition Lee would face, it all comes down to the strategic reality that the South, and Lee, were simply in over their heads militarily in terms of any invasion of the North. The further the CSA carries out such operations, the more the North is united, and the more they mobilize. There were considerable forces closing in during the Gettysburg Campaign that were never engaged simply because Lee retreated before they could arrive.

Much speculation has been made over minor issues in the campaign, such as "What if Pickett's two other brigades had been with him instead of Richmond?" Well, maybe he advances a hundred more yards, maybe not. But most definitely, with only the Home Guard and Invalid Corps left in the capital, there would have been nothing to stop the two understrength Union corps (IV and VII, IIRC) in Eastern Virginia from simply storming in and taking Richmond!:eek:

So as I see it, it's at best a minor to moderate Confederate victory at Gettysburg, but neither Meade nor Hancock nor any of the senior corps commanders would, having lost at Gettysburg, ever have made a stand at Emmitsburg. And Lee immediately after such a battle would be commanding an army that didn't have the moxie left to pursue the AotP so quickly as to maintain the pressure making disengagement impossible. The roads were just too good, and the main bodies of both armies too distant, to allow it. It would take mechanized transport to move that quickly in pursuit on those roads.

because there's no certain outcome and we're both (correct me if I'm wrong, usertron) Army of the Potomac fans. (10)

10) Nothing is ever certain, but in looking at the past, hindsight at least is 20-20. And yes, I am a fan of the Army of the Potomac. I am also a fan of the Battle of Gettysburg, which is why I am not sanquine at the thought of a TL based on a non-OTL "Battle of Emmitsburg".
 
Last edited:
well i was looking at a map of Union & Confederate movements after the Confederate withdrawal from Gettysburg OTL & the AoP went in two directions south through Emmitsburg & Taneytown & I was just going as if the AoP withdrew from Gettysburg they'd go in two routes. I just picked II & III Corps just cus but it could be either way.

From what all yall have said you pretty much can't get a Confederate victory just with Lee winning a big campaign on northern soil alone & I'm planning on doing some work on stuff in the Western Theater to help get the Confederacy to win but right now I'm still going to focus on this area.

I was just seeing what yall thought on during this campaign, if Lee has already grinded up 4 Corps with much less losses himself, Would he attack the Union lines at Pipe Creek & if he did Could he defeat them finally in a big battle win?

Thank you. You've helped to remind me why it was that a Union retreat in the direction of Emmitsburg would have been impossible. It's way too damn close to the AoNV. They'd be caught on the road in column and destroyed.

As to your specific points, Lee's strategy against his enemies always depended too much on the frailties of his enemy commanders. He never encountered an enemy whose head he couldn't get into, but he did at Gettysburg finally encounter Meade, a man he couldn't scare. And finally, much of his victories that gained him so much in terms of Union casualties versus light losses of his own occurred when he was catching the enemy by surprise, thus spurring panic and mass retreats. That, or the enemy launching extremely unwise assaults upon impregnable Confederate positions. He was always fighting poor commanders, and often managed to launch precise attacks against isolated sections of his opponent's formations.

None of these applied at Gettysburg. And Lee just mulishly pushed forward, expecting (he said this himself, and continued to believe in this till the day he died) that the mere sight of his army would cause the enemy to just break and run away. Sometimes they didn't run away.:(

This was why the casualties for the AoNV, unlike every other battle they ever fought, was more costly for them on a man-for-man basis than any other in their history. You cannot assume that an outnumbered army in the day of the minie' ball can launch infantry assaults against a prepared enemy and yet somehow emerge not only triumphant, but with far fewer losses; which is what they would have needed for an attack against the Pipe Creek Line to be even remotely credible.
 
7) Yes, as I said about "see below" about other formations. There were just too damn many "Damn Yankees" for Lee to do whatever he wanted. Even with the holding of the heights of Gettysburg, it doesn't allow him the ability to just blitzkrieg forward without resistance against an enemy with both superior numbers (growing all the time so much faster than Lee's army at the point of engagement) and the interior lines. Meaning that as Meade retreats, his forces become even more numerous before the AoNV, while Lee's army either stays the same, or gets weaker by forced marching.

Yeah. I think Lee might be able to chew up First and Eleventh Corps to the point of remnants (that kinda happened OTL), plus - though I'm not sure how - kick the next nearest Federals in the teeth. But that's on the level of the full flung "general engagement" he didn't want early on July 1 - which means the troops involved will desperately need a breather. Ammunition supplies might not be too awful, but they won't be too good either.

And that's leaving out how Meade is retreating towards security and Lee is rapidly pushing his luck, since you covered it already.

9) Well, it is a fact that certain TLs are going to draw more attention, particularly those that have a basis that reflect on contemporary issues. As to what opposition Lee would face, it all comes down to the strategic reality that the South, and Lee, were simply in over their heads militarily in terms of any invasion of the North. The further the CSA carries out such operations, the more the North is united, and the more they mobilize. There were considerable forces closing in during the Gettysburg Campaign that were never engaged simply because Lee retreated before they could arrive.

Although most of them were pretty underwhelming, in a scenario where Lee is looking like Serious Business, they will be backed up by other Federal forces - and Lee cannot fight the ARmy of the potomac and Dix and the Middle Department and . . .

Even with a pre-July 1 POD, meaning a stronger ANV, Lee is going to have a lot coming down on him relative to what he has to work with, and there are no good ways out of it.

Doesn't necessarily mean overall defeat - but Lee being Lee. . .

Much speculation has been made over minor issues in the campaign, such as "What if Pickett's two other brigades had been with him instead of Richmond?" Well, maybe he advances a hundred more yards, maybe not. But most definitely, with only the Home Guard and Invalid Corps left in the capital, there would have been nothing to stop the two understrength Union corps (IV and VII, IIRC) in Eastern Virginia from simply storming in and taking Richmond!:eek:

Yep, 4th and Seventh.

I think that the threat of those corps taking Richmond isn't necessarily as big as it sounds - but it raises unpleasant possibilities for something where Lee does get the reinforcements he wants. Coming home to find out that their contribution was to smash into Richmond rather than to be dragged away to the AoP would be far from impossible.

10) Nothing is ever certain, but in looking at the past, hindsight at least is 20-20. And yes, I am a fan of the Army of the Potomac. I am also a fan of the Battle of Gettysburg, which is why I am not sanquine at the thought of a TL based on a non-OTL "Battle of Emmitsburg".

Yeah.

I'd say, if things lined up properly - and we're talking getting into tactical detail as well as a mid-May POD - the best you can get is a smashed up Army of the Potomac, Federal positions along the coast treated as secondary so as to make up for #1, and lightening the pressure on Tennessee a little.

Beyond that, and someone - preferably Meade AND Lincoln - needs to be made into a dumbass. And even this requires making mistakes.
 
Elfwine

Yeah. The problem for the South was, they had run out of Yankee Dumbasses. The last they had went down when Sickles had his leg shot off.
 
Elfwine & Usertron what i forgot to say as well was I was using the Jackson not getting shot at Chansellorsville scenario & leading 2nd corps to capturing Culp's U Cemetery Hill & Cemetery Ridge on the 1st day & decimating the Union I & XI Corps. I said Meade withdraws on the 2nd cause I was just going on with the 1st day fighting not really ending till the night & having to pick up casualties it'd be morning on the 2nd before he'd leave. As for Emmitsburg as I said I looked at the map of OTL movements after Gettysburg & also thought looking at the maps that the corps going to be defending the western flank would've reached it faster going that way. From looking at those Pipe Creek maps I figured Meade would've gone the Tanneytown route to get to his headquarters faster as well. I had Stuart who returned on the 2nd catch up with the II & III Corps near Emmitsburg & begin attacking them giving Jackson's corps time to engage by the afternoon & part of Hill's III Corps by that night. Superior forces, Hancock being badly wounded, & heavy casualties causes the II & III Corps to retreat to Tanneytown & leaving Meade with a big manpower shortage to defend the line. This along with a lower Confederate casualty count was where I stopped to ask yall
 
Top