'Battle of Bornhöved'

What would happen if Valdemar II managed to keep the German Baltic Coast? (an accepted fact for Emperor Frederick II, who signed off the areas in 1214 by Golden bull, ceding all imperial territories north of Elbe and Elde)

Two ways to do this would be either letting Valdemar escape the abduction of Henry I of Schwerin in 1223 (although it could also be done by Frederick II putting enough weight on Henry I), or winning the very close Battle of Bornhöved in 1227.

Interesting consequences would perhaps be that Denmark would seek to link up its territories conquering the coast all the way to Estonia (possibly from vassalizing the Livonian Brothers of the Sword following their defeat against Pagans in 1236) ... other than that Hansa would probably die premature, and be largely replaced with danish merchant houses following largely the same footsteps

What effects would it have on HRE to lose the Baltics? ... and Poland if Denmark kept moving onwards cutting off their access to Baltics (which they didn't have yet)
 
Just one title but you put up two possibilities... ;)
First the hard one; if Valdemar II wins a Bornhöved he have to punish his rebellious nobility to get them back in line. The good thing of course being his relations with the Papacy helping to beat them back in line but it would take time and leave little for the achievements at home post battle; lawgiving etc.
With two decades to go Valdemar may reassert his former domains and perhaps a little more.

The lighter part; avoiding the capture in 1223 would still secure the domains of 1219 look up map here but its still difficult to see much enlargement. One of the main obstacles being the inability of Danes to colonize their Baltic conquest'; the Danish birth rate simply didn't suffice.
Valdemar would have to still rely on local nobility to rule in his name. He might be able to do a little on the remains of the Polish Baltic coast but the Sword Brothers... perhaps I'm too pessimistic.
Possibly he could retain his luck conquering the Prusians and then go for the Sword Brothers or the other way round. Though waiting till 1236 for the chance to occur may be a bit of a stretch considering his being 65 at that time.
Killing off the Hanse could well prevent the house come tumbling down once Valdemar dies; only to have Eric squander it all when he comes of age. :D
 

ingemann

Banned
A few thoughts on the issue, political it will mean a lot more stable Denmark in the short term, with a defeat of Holstein and the Hansetic League, Valdemar II will be able to reward his supporters with land. A major problem for the kings following Valdemar, was that he had given all his sons princely domains weakening the Danish state. Here he can give his sons domains in Holstein and Wendland instead. Also with the defeat of the Hansetic League Lübeck come fully under Danish control.
Demographic the increase stability and lack of internal conflict and the high taxes of Erik Plovpenning will mean that we will see higher Danish birth rates. In fact the internal conflict in Denmark the century after Valdemar's death was likely the major reason that Pommerania became German speaking instead of Danish speaking, as there was significant Danish settlements until the Danish internal conflicts began reducing the population.
The defeat of the Hansetic League will have interesting consequences, it will mean that the Hansetic League become centred in the Stem duchy of Saxony rather than on the Baltic Coast. As such the trade in the Baltic Sea becomes dominated by Danish trader and the Danish crown will monopolise the salt and herring trade. The result is that Danish take the position Low German had in the Baltic area.
Of course in the long term some weaknesses will hurt Denmark; the many princely domain split between sons and relatives of Valdemar and regional prince which threw their support behind Valdemar. It will mean a weak tax base, of course the salt and herring trade may enable the Danish crown to deal with this. But the problem is that after 1500 the money in this will not cover a early modern state budget, while at the same time the number of herrings began falling in the little ice age. At the same time the strong princely domains was recipes for civil wars. We may see succession wars hitting Denmark at some point (through these may be blessing in disguises as they would allow the winner to extent royal power).
 
I think if Poland loses Pomerania completely and the chance to gain Prussia, I think the Mazovian Piasts could get weaker.
 
As a result of Valdemar being victorious at Bornhöved a change of ruling nobility in Northern Germany will make it possible for his sons to get their slices of the cake. That wouldn't be so if the capture of 1223 is avoided. ;)

The latter would still entail a weakened Denmark while the former may open for something different like Erik Plovpenning not earning his nickname.

An interesting butterfly effect could be another Scandinavian Union; not the Kalmar as the Danish king would be much stronger than OTL. It would still be a union in as much as Norway is needed as an independent kingdom to secure inheritance of the throne. ;)
Sweden may ITTL become a Danish royal fief. :D
 
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