Batista assassinated

On March 13, 1957, the Revolutionary Directorate, a student group backed by exiled former president Carlos Prio, assaulted Fulgencio Batista's presidential palace, attempting to assassinate him. WI they had been successful?
 

Art

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Who knows?

Probably you get another U. S. backed dictator or a military junta, but perhaps more competant. Maybe Castro gets shot (I know he had been sent to a military prison) but not when that was. Maybe the Mob's love affair with Cuba continues, maybe not. Perhaps there is a real democratic revolution and a true free Cuba, but not very likely. In order for that to happen the U. S.'s foreign policy must change. No McCarthy and no "losing China" would be the first prequsite.
 
Castro had been freed and was in the early months of his revolution. The problem for Cuba was that there were too many groups obsessed with gaining power and completely unscrupulous about how they got it. US policy isn't going to change that unless they invade the country and basically force democracy and rule of law upon it. My guess is that there continues to be a shift of power between various groups, sometimes democratically and sometimes not, until Cuba finds political stability (as in something like the Dominican Republic today) at some point between 15 and 40 years after the assassination. Batista is remembered somewhat better (read up on the man, he's rather different from the caricature we have of him) and Castro never takes over (which he only did because Batista made every possible mistake) and ends up as a footnote in Cuba's history. I guess the POD should read "WI Castro never gained power?"
 
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