This timeline is a bit different, in that it uses statistics to change history.
At Baseball-Reference.com, they have a stat called "Pythagorean Won-Loss Record", which is based on how many runs a team scores and how many they give up in a certain season. It calculates the record the team should have had, and the differences between those records and the ones in real life can be staggering.
In this timeline, I'm going to not only post records, but simulate playoff series where applicable in order to find out how baseball would have been different in a Pythagorean universe. The implications of some of these changes should be far-reaching, and I hope to start some good discussion about them.
Some rules to keep in mind:
1) Since I'll be using WhatIf Sports as a simulator, the rosters of the teams will stay the same as in real life. We can certainly discuss moves and trades teams could have made in order to improve themselves, but I can't use them in game action.
2) Strikes still happen, since the Pythagorean record is based on real-life stats. When we eventually get to the 1981 split season, though, I'll keep the playoff format as it was, with the small change that the top two teams overall in a division make the playoffs. (The Puthagorean stats don't recognize split seasons.)
3) This isn't a rule, but I'm a Pittsburgh native and a fan of the Pittsburgh Pirates, so if I refer to a team as "we" or "the local team", that's who I'm talking about.
4) This timeline starts with the first year of the National Association, 1871.
5) All figures in parentheses are the number of games a team has lost or gained from their real-life record.
6) When it comes time to simulate playoff series, I'm going to let real-life results stand when the same teams are involved in a series. The only series I will simulate will be those with different teams involved.
Without any further ado, let's get started.
1871: No change, as the Philadelphia Athletics take the first pennant in Organized Baseball with an 18-10 mark, a net loss of three games from their real 21-7 mark. That three-game loss is the biggest negative swing. The Boston Red Stockings move up to second from third despite a one-game loss from 20-10 to 19-11. The biggest gain comes from the Rockford Forest Citys, who go from 4-21 and last place in the nine-team league to 10-15 and seventh place, a net gain of six games.
FINAL STANDINGS:
1. Philadelphia Athletics: 18-10 (-3)
2. Boston Red Stockings: 19-11- 1 GB (-1)
3. Chicago White Stockings: 17-11- 1 GB (-2)
4. (tie) Washington Olympics: 15-15- 4 GB (0)
(tie) Troy Haymakers: 14-14- 4 GB (+1)
6. New York Mutuals: 16-17- 4.5 GB (0)
7. Rockford Forest Citys: 10-15- 6.5 GB (+6)
8. Fort Wayne Kekiongas: 5-14- 8.5 GB (-2)
9. Cleveland Forest Citys: 10-19- 8.5 GB (0)
1872: The Red Stockings lose a game, from 39-8 to 38-9, but that's still good enough to take the pennant. The New York Mutuals finish five and a half games out instead of eight and a half despite gaining just two more wins, from 34-20 to 36-18. That's the biggest swing of any kind this year; it's duplicated by the Washington Nationals (0-11 to 2-9) and the Middletown Mansfields (5-19 to 7-17). Despite only playing eleven games, the Nats thus move from eleventh place to seventh, while the Mansfields slip from eighth to ninth.
FINAL STANDINGS: (Expansion teams in bold italics)
1. Red Stockings: 38-9 (-1)
2. Mutuals: 36-18- 5.5 GB (+2)
3. Baltimore Canaries: 35-19- 6.5 GB (0)
4. Athletics: 30-14- 6.5 GB (0)
5. Haymakers: 16-9- 11 GB (+1)
6. Olympics: 1-8- 18 GB (-1)
7. Washington Nationals: 2-9- 18 GB (+2)
8. Forest Citys: 7-15- 18.5 GB (+1)
9. Middletown Mansfields: 7-17- 19.5 GB (+2)
10. Brooklyn Atlantics: 8-29- 25 GB (-1)
11. Brooklyn Eckfords: 4-25- 25 GB (+1)
Out: White Stockings, Rockford Forest Citys, Kekiongas
1873: The Stockings lose a game, from 43-18 to 42-17, but still take their second consecutive NA crown. They win by three and a half over the Baltimore Canaries, who move from third to second by gaining three games (34-22 to 37-19). The Nats also have a three-game positive swing (8-31 to 11-28) but still finish seventh. The Athletics lose three games (36-17 to 33-20) and tumble from second to third as a result.
FINAL STANDINGS: (Expansion teams in bold italics)
1. Red Stockings: 42-17 (-1)
2. Canaries: 37-19- 3.5 GB (+3)
3. Philadelphia Whites: 33-20- 6 GB (-3)
4. Athletics: 29-22- 9 GB (+1)
5. Mutuals: 29-24- 10 GB (0)
6. Baltimore Marylands: 0-6- 26.5 GB (0)
7. Washington Blue Legs: 11-28- 21 GB (+3)
8. Elizabeth Resolutes: 3-20- 21 GB (+1)
9. Atlantics: 17-37- 22.5 GB (0)
Out: Olympics, Forest Citys, Haymakers, Nationals, Eckfords, Mansfields
Note: The Marylands' games behind was calculated using the current formula, but their placing was determined by the Pythagorean system.
1874: The Red Stockings become three-time champions, keeping their real-life record of 52-18 intact. Their margin over the second-place Mutuals thus expands from seven and a half games to eight and a half, as the Mutuals lose a game (42-23 to 41-24). The Brooklyn Atlantics have the biggest fall from grace, slipping from 22-33 (seventh) to 18-37 (eighth), a four-game slide. The biggest positive switch belongs to the Hartford Dark Blues, who add five wins and move from seventh place at 16-37 to sixth place at 21-32.
FINAL STANDINGS:
1. Red Stockings: 52-18 (0)
2. Mutuals: 41-24- 8.5 GB (-1)
3. Athletics: 34-21- 10.5 GB (+1)
4. Whites: 32-26- 14 GB (+3)
5. Chicago White Stockings: 26-33- 20.5 GB (-2)
6. Hartford Dark Blues: 21-32- 22.5 GB (+5)
7. Atlantics: 18-37- 26.5 GB (-4)
8. Canaries: 9-38- 31.5 GB (0)
Out: Marylands, Blue Legs, Resolutes
1875: The final year of the NA sees the Red Stockings lose five games (71-8 to 66-13) but still take the pennant by nine games over the Athletics, who actually gain a game from 53-20 to 54-19. Their real-life margin of victory was fifteen games. The Stockings sustain the biggest loss of the season; the biggest gain goes once again to Hartford, which improves from 54-28 to 58-24, a difference of four games. Unfortunately, that's still only good for a third-place finish.
FINAL STANDINGS: (Expansion teams in bold italics)
1. Red Stockings: 66-13 (-5)
2. Athletics: 54-19- 9 GB (+1)
3. Dark Blues: 58-24- 9.5 GB (+4)
4. Whites: 41-27- 19.5 GB (+4)
5. St. Louis Brown Stockings: 35-33- 25.5 GB (-4)
6. White Stockings: 31-36- 29 GB (+1)
7. Keokuk Westerns: 3-10- 30 GB (+2)
8. Philadelphia Centennials: 3-11- 30.5 GB (+1)
9. St. Louis Red Stockings: 3-16- 33 GB (-1)
10. Mutuals: 26-42- 34.5 GB (-4)
11. Washington Nationals: 3-25- 37.5 GB (-2)
12. New Haven Elm Citys: 8-39- 42 GB (+1)
13. Atlantics: 4-40- 44.5 GB (+2)
Out: Canaries
Thoughts so far?
At Baseball-Reference.com, they have a stat called "Pythagorean Won-Loss Record", which is based on how many runs a team scores and how many they give up in a certain season. It calculates the record the team should have had, and the differences between those records and the ones in real life can be staggering.
In this timeline, I'm going to not only post records, but simulate playoff series where applicable in order to find out how baseball would have been different in a Pythagorean universe. The implications of some of these changes should be far-reaching, and I hope to start some good discussion about them.
Some rules to keep in mind:
1) Since I'll be using WhatIf Sports as a simulator, the rosters of the teams will stay the same as in real life. We can certainly discuss moves and trades teams could have made in order to improve themselves, but I can't use them in game action.
2) Strikes still happen, since the Pythagorean record is based on real-life stats. When we eventually get to the 1981 split season, though, I'll keep the playoff format as it was, with the small change that the top two teams overall in a division make the playoffs. (The Puthagorean stats don't recognize split seasons.)
3) This isn't a rule, but I'm a Pittsburgh native and a fan of the Pittsburgh Pirates, so if I refer to a team as "we" or "the local team", that's who I'm talking about.
4) This timeline starts with the first year of the National Association, 1871.
5) All figures in parentheses are the number of games a team has lost or gained from their real-life record.
6) When it comes time to simulate playoff series, I'm going to let real-life results stand when the same teams are involved in a series. The only series I will simulate will be those with different teams involved.
Without any further ado, let's get started.
1871: No change, as the Philadelphia Athletics take the first pennant in Organized Baseball with an 18-10 mark, a net loss of three games from their real 21-7 mark. That three-game loss is the biggest negative swing. The Boston Red Stockings move up to second from third despite a one-game loss from 20-10 to 19-11. The biggest gain comes from the Rockford Forest Citys, who go from 4-21 and last place in the nine-team league to 10-15 and seventh place, a net gain of six games.
FINAL STANDINGS:
1. Philadelphia Athletics: 18-10 (-3)
2. Boston Red Stockings: 19-11- 1 GB (-1)
3. Chicago White Stockings: 17-11- 1 GB (-2)
4. (tie) Washington Olympics: 15-15- 4 GB (0)
(tie) Troy Haymakers: 14-14- 4 GB (+1)
6. New York Mutuals: 16-17- 4.5 GB (0)
7. Rockford Forest Citys: 10-15- 6.5 GB (+6)
8. Fort Wayne Kekiongas: 5-14- 8.5 GB (-2)
9. Cleveland Forest Citys: 10-19- 8.5 GB (0)
1872: The Red Stockings lose a game, from 39-8 to 38-9, but that's still good enough to take the pennant. The New York Mutuals finish five and a half games out instead of eight and a half despite gaining just two more wins, from 34-20 to 36-18. That's the biggest swing of any kind this year; it's duplicated by the Washington Nationals (0-11 to 2-9) and the Middletown Mansfields (5-19 to 7-17). Despite only playing eleven games, the Nats thus move from eleventh place to seventh, while the Mansfields slip from eighth to ninth.
FINAL STANDINGS: (Expansion teams in bold italics)
1. Red Stockings: 38-9 (-1)
2. Mutuals: 36-18- 5.5 GB (+2)
3. Baltimore Canaries: 35-19- 6.5 GB (0)
4. Athletics: 30-14- 6.5 GB (0)
5. Haymakers: 16-9- 11 GB (+1)
6. Olympics: 1-8- 18 GB (-1)
7. Washington Nationals: 2-9- 18 GB (+2)
8. Forest Citys: 7-15- 18.5 GB (+1)
9. Middletown Mansfields: 7-17- 19.5 GB (+2)
10. Brooklyn Atlantics: 8-29- 25 GB (-1)
11. Brooklyn Eckfords: 4-25- 25 GB (+1)
Out: White Stockings, Rockford Forest Citys, Kekiongas
1873: The Stockings lose a game, from 43-18 to 42-17, but still take their second consecutive NA crown. They win by three and a half over the Baltimore Canaries, who move from third to second by gaining three games (34-22 to 37-19). The Nats also have a three-game positive swing (8-31 to 11-28) but still finish seventh. The Athletics lose three games (36-17 to 33-20) and tumble from second to third as a result.
FINAL STANDINGS: (Expansion teams in bold italics)
1. Red Stockings: 42-17 (-1)
2. Canaries: 37-19- 3.5 GB (+3)
3. Philadelphia Whites: 33-20- 6 GB (-3)
4. Athletics: 29-22- 9 GB (+1)
5. Mutuals: 29-24- 10 GB (0)
6. Baltimore Marylands: 0-6- 26.5 GB (0)
7. Washington Blue Legs: 11-28- 21 GB (+3)
8. Elizabeth Resolutes: 3-20- 21 GB (+1)
9. Atlantics: 17-37- 22.5 GB (0)
Out: Olympics, Forest Citys, Haymakers, Nationals, Eckfords, Mansfields
Note: The Marylands' games behind was calculated using the current formula, but their placing was determined by the Pythagorean system.
1874: The Red Stockings become three-time champions, keeping their real-life record of 52-18 intact. Their margin over the second-place Mutuals thus expands from seven and a half games to eight and a half, as the Mutuals lose a game (42-23 to 41-24). The Brooklyn Atlantics have the biggest fall from grace, slipping from 22-33 (seventh) to 18-37 (eighth), a four-game slide. The biggest positive switch belongs to the Hartford Dark Blues, who add five wins and move from seventh place at 16-37 to sixth place at 21-32.
FINAL STANDINGS:
1. Red Stockings: 52-18 (0)
2. Mutuals: 41-24- 8.5 GB (-1)
3. Athletics: 34-21- 10.5 GB (+1)
4. Whites: 32-26- 14 GB (+3)
5. Chicago White Stockings: 26-33- 20.5 GB (-2)
6. Hartford Dark Blues: 21-32- 22.5 GB (+5)
7. Atlantics: 18-37- 26.5 GB (-4)
8. Canaries: 9-38- 31.5 GB (0)
Out: Marylands, Blue Legs, Resolutes
1875: The final year of the NA sees the Red Stockings lose five games (71-8 to 66-13) but still take the pennant by nine games over the Athletics, who actually gain a game from 53-20 to 54-19. Their real-life margin of victory was fifteen games. The Stockings sustain the biggest loss of the season; the biggest gain goes once again to Hartford, which improves from 54-28 to 58-24, a difference of four games. Unfortunately, that's still only good for a third-place finish.
FINAL STANDINGS: (Expansion teams in bold italics)
1. Red Stockings: 66-13 (-5)
2. Athletics: 54-19- 9 GB (+1)
3. Dark Blues: 58-24- 9.5 GB (+4)
4. Whites: 41-27- 19.5 GB (+4)
5. St. Louis Brown Stockings: 35-33- 25.5 GB (-4)
6. White Stockings: 31-36- 29 GB (+1)
7. Keokuk Westerns: 3-10- 30 GB (+2)
8. Philadelphia Centennials: 3-11- 30.5 GB (+1)
9. St. Louis Red Stockings: 3-16- 33 GB (-1)
10. Mutuals: 26-42- 34.5 GB (-4)
11. Washington Nationals: 3-25- 37.5 GB (-2)
12. New Haven Elm Citys: 8-39- 42 GB (+1)
13. Atlantics: 4-40- 44.5 GB (+2)
Out: Canaries
Thoughts so far?
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