Bargain with the Devil - Japan and WWII

As I like Ed's idea, I have tried to find some PODs which would have made an Anglo-Japanese alliance much more probable

1. It is critical that in summer 1940 Japan believes that Britain will continue to resist Germany for the foreseeable future. One obvious issue is that Japan must realise that Sealion was hopeless. Perhaps, the best way would be to put Vice-Admiral Koga Mineichi in charge of assessing the likely outcome. During the debate in 1935 before the Yamato class were ordered, Koga had argued that the Japanese fleet could at that time defend itself with anti-aircraft guns. He had imperial connections and had supported the naval treaties. It would also be a good idea if the ambassador in Berlin were either less influential or less pro-German than Oshima. Sadly Sugihara Chiune was too junior. Perhaps, Lieutenant-General Homma Masaharu or Vice-Admiral Inoue Shigeyoshi are possible choices (these changes could arise from the POD below).

The Japanese government must also believe (wrongly) that Hitler would not attack Russia while he is fighting Britain, especially as the USA was also likely to intervene. That is no problem as that is what they believed OTL.

If they believe that Britain will fight on and that Germany will not attack Russia, they may have to admit that their plans for restraining Russia have collapsed. Before September 1939, Japan had tried to work for a German - Polish alliance to extend the Anti-Comintern Pact (originally they had also hoped to include China). OTL, the belief that Britain was about to submit resurrected the usefulness of the German alliance after June 1940. ITTL, Japan fears attack from Russia and is seeking allies from September 1939, when they lost the battle of Khalkin Gol, and does not feel that its position has changed in June 1940.

2. Relations between Japan and the Anglo-Americans need to be better. The key to that might be a more intelligent IJA. In the thirties, the IJA was divided into the Toseiha (control) and Kodoha (Imperial Way) factions. Most of the Kodoha faction was crazy and several of the Toseiha were promoted despite their stupidity because they were good faction men. One of the most interesting examples of the relations between the factions involved Lieutenant Colonel Aizawa Saburo, a Kodoha member, entering the office of Major General Nagata Tetsuzan, a leader of the Toseiha, and killing him with a sword in 1935. Now Nagata was not especially stupid. Another important member of the Toseiha was Lieutenant General Sugiyama Gen, whose outstanding stupidity was noted in 1941 when Sugiyama predicted a quick victory over the Anglo-Americans and Hirohito reminded him that in 1937 he had predicted a victory over China in three months. So let's have Aizawa killing Sugiyama.

Nagata may have had the talent to be very influential but it's still not perfect because he, along with most thirties intellectuals, wanted a controlled economy. However, let's assume that he talks to the Minister of Finance, Takahashi Korekiyo. People on this board often mention Japanese stupidity but Takahashi was a genius who could note on his CV that his organisation grew at an average 4.9% while few competitors managed better than 1%. (Unfortunately he could not apply for a job getting other countries out of their depressions as he was murdered in 1936. Opposing excessive military spending in Japan was bad for your health.) Takahashi convinces Nagata that Japan cannot supply all the investment that is needed for his 'Total War' plans. They must persuade America to help prepare its own defeat. Thus International Harvesters is persuaded to produce tractors in Manchuria, which can be sold with a subsidy to Japanese immigrants. General Motors similarly can be offered good profits to build trucks. After 1938, Ford can be encouraged to produce its new range of both tractors and trucks. If we add a frequent alternative history POD and someone finds oil at Daqing, Standard Oil is also invited to help.

As Sugiyama was a major influence for escalation in 1937, it is possible that we have already avoided the war with China. However, if conflict is inevitable, we can assume that Nagata persuades his colleagues that incidents with foreign nationals or massacres reported in American newspapers are a very bad idea. Known extremists such as Hashimoto Kingoro of the Society of the Cherry are dispatched to defend Truk and other distant sites. Thus no Panay or Ladybird incidents. We could even assume that someone such as Colonel Kagesi points out that Japan will need an alternative Chinese leader and that a well trained Chinese army might be useful if one could be captured. It would not have been hard to capture the Chinese army around Shanghai and Nanking, especially after its generals had escaped. Had the Japanese been taking prisoners, the Nanking massacre would probably not have started.

In 1938, a clever IJA could have taken American reporters to watch Japanese soldiers and sailors trying to rescue Chinese peasants from the floods after the Hwang Ho dykes are breached

Thus after September 1939, we can assume that Ambassador Grew, assisted by industry lobbying, is more influential than Stanley Hornbeck. Japan realises that it needs American economic support to build enough tanks and guns to oppose Russia and that better relations would allow less naval spending. American companies realise that their investments are too close to the Russian border for comfort.

3. Finally, let's assume no Churchill in Britain. Ideally, this might mean no Asama Maru incident if Liverpool has different orders. Relations are still likely to be poor between September 1939 and June 1940 because Britain may still refuse to sell raw materials to Japan. Japan could, for example, import rubber and send it to Germany via Russia.

However, once France falls, Britain needs additional escorts in the Atlantic and capital ships in the Mediterranean. It does not want any threat in the Far East. America wants to support Britain to persuade it to keep fighting. Japan still needs to build more tanks and needs American steel. Thus a deal becomes possible and perhaps even likely.
 
I cannot see how German aircraft are supposed to be able to sink major warships. They repeatedly failed to do so during the entire war, therefore I do not see how they are supposed to pull this one off.
 
Top