alternatehistory.com

Inspired by the discussion here:
https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...can-italy-shut-down-supplies-to-egypt.420464/
What if due to better Italian decision making the Germans don't end up having to commit troops to the Mediterranean (North Africa, Greece, and air/naval units in the region), instead just having to conduct the Yugoslav invasion. What happens with Barbarossa then without the delays and modifications imposed by the Greek Campaign, as well as losses there, in Crete, plus the commitment of Rommel and the Luftwaffe in Africa/the Central Mediterranean?
Off the top of my head the Greek/Crete campaign cost about 300 aircraft destroyed with probably at least as many damaged. It also caused the 12th army to be disbanded and have no role in the Ukraine campaign as originally planned. A further probably 500-600 aircraft were committed to the Mediterranean over the course of 1941 and in November 1941 2nd Air Fleet was removed from the Moscow offensive for use against Malta. Rommel's DAK of course ended up with 3 mobile divisions lavishly equipped in 1941, plus a disproportionate sized supply service. Beyond that the 7th Flieger Division and hundreds of Ju52s were smashed at Crete and the paras not used until late September around Leningrad after recovering from Crete. Also 5th Mountain and a number of other divisions were not available for Barbarossa due to the Greek/Crete campaign. 2nd and 5th Panzer were unavailable due to the Greek campaign (with major equipment losses when their transports were sunk when withdrawing from Southern Greece), while many divisions and aircraft were worn out and lacked maintenance at the start of the Russian campaign due to the Greek adventure. What impact would these forces likely have had on Barbarossa?
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