Barbarossa lives longer

As it says on the tin. What would be the subsequent effects? Could the HRE keep Italy? What would a centralised HRE be like?
 
How much longer? Does Henry* (Barbarossa's son and heir) also live longer?

Keeping Italy and/or centralizing takes a lot more than Barbarossa's remaining years will permit - it might start some favorable butterflies, but he's done what he can as of 1190. The future is in the hands of others.

* Henry VI to be.
 
As it says on the tin. What would be the subsequent effects? Could the HRE keep Italy? What would a centralised HRE be like?

1)Things could actually go harder for HRE. See, Barbarossa was harsh,: burning alive nobles and bishops having supported his opponents, bliding claimants or possible ones, etc.
It certainly didn't prevented his opponents to rebel : at the contrary, they saw they didn't had great alternative to keep and/or increase their power or freedoms outside open and bold rebellion.
The troubles that followed his reign : assassinations, excommunication of emperors, etc, could be even more important.

While being a firm hand emperor, very able and having managed to crush the most important threats to imperial powers, I think it was the best for HRE he died while crusading.

2) Unlikely. To put it simply, when an emperor had to deal with issues and rebels in Italy, it gave room for great nobles to increase their power in Germany. And when troubles in Germany...well you got the point.
As the imperial power was less challenged in Germany (in Italy, the papal influence was clearly rivaling it, among other factors) it's more likely that HRE efforts would eventually focus on this part.

3) I don't think you can have something "centralized" in medieval times. Not in the modern meaning, at least. If you meant an united HRE like you had during Louis IX or Charles V in France, you'll need first a stable dynasty in power.
That was a great weakness of HRE, in times where legitimacy, institutions, political structure was not individual but familial.
It would have meant emperors able to limit their ambitions to Germany, abandoning the idea they could enforce their power in Italy like they did in the northern part of the empire (the issue here is that the imperial legitimacy was partially based on universalism).
 
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