Barbarossa: how would you do it?
- Thread starter ruisramos
- Start date
Answer Depends on Flexibility I have.
Please Note that will keep some of the mindset of Hitler. Jews are evil, Soviets are evil and Germany is to be made a first class power. So this isn't me saying these things are good ideas.
If POD is after invasion of Poland.
1) It's time to fire Goering as Head of the 4 year plan and his role in the economy. It was fine to play political games in peace time but now that there is a real war on need to fight it. So assigned Fritz Todt as Reich Minister for Armaments and Munitions in 1939; Speer is Todt's deputy. End the bureaucratic mess of armaments by making the 3 services answerable to Todt and he absolute control raw materials, workers and factory assignment.
2) The deal with Soviets is a good one so push it to the limits in terms of raw materials.
3) Nothing Massively wrong with invasions of Denmark & Norway or Western Europe as historic. Any changes here I think require foresight so wouldn't make any.
4) After fall of France make a serious pitch at peace with UK. Make clear fate of occupied territories in the west is on the table for talks; IE everything accept Poland is open to talks. Make clear that Germany has no interest in occupation of UK itself. Odds are Churchill wont budge but you can at least make it painful for him politically. Start serious if slow talks with occupied nations for long term peace deals. Will organizing a European Block and some selective annexations. Warsaw Pact 0.1 with common currency perhaps.
5) After giving UK a week to think over the offer in 4 accept two things. First they are going to have be forced out of the war. Second Battle of Britain / Sea Lion aren't the way to do it; as bluff or as real plan. Only place can get at UK interests is Med. So talk to IL DUCE and work out a strategy for kicking the British out of the Med over next year or so. Keep pounding on the UK in the med objectives are Malta, Egypt and Gibraltar. All the while continuing to offer 'reasonable' peace terms, if 2 out of 3 are taken by summer 41 I expect that Churchill is going to start facing real pressure to do a deal.
6) Recalculate Economics program. Much of the pre-war assumptions don't make any sense now, especially with respect to raw materials.
7) Expect that Mussolini will do stupid stuff from time to time so will get sucked into Balkans, etc as historic.
8) If have taken Egypt, etc and UK still hasn't made a deal accept that you are stuck with them at your back and there is nothing to do about it unless willing to change objective to marching East to India. Since even Alexander failed at this turn eyes toward USSR. If UK does bows out go with Madagascar solution for Jews etc, logistics of the movement is UK's problem as part of the peace deal.
9) Accept that USSR is a multiyear campaign and will need to go deep into Russia to make it work. So more trucks, railroad engines, rolling stock and of course engineers are needed.
10) Consider perhaps trying to lure / provoke Soviets into attacking first. Poland is wonderful sack to lure the Soviets into. Logistics all favor the Germans and tactical air power can be used to full effect. If the Soviets attack they are ones trying to cram troops forward and the Germans can kill them with maneuver and airpower. Once Soviet offensive is smashed switch to counter offensive to role the soviets up.
11) Offer Freedom of people in western USSR. Tell them kill the Communists and kill the Jews. Independent nations after the war is won; I am Hitler and an evil SOB so I am lying through my teeth but whatever. Declare great crusade against communism, so recruit troops from occupied nations in west; wouldn't expect much more than historic SS totals but it might generate more if in combination of real effort at peace talks with the occupied nations.
12) Advance into USSR, rip off chunks of territory, organize and repair logistics. Repeat till someone shoots Stalin.
13) Don't declare war on USA. When Japan attacks USA and everyone else in Dec 41 renew offer of peace deal with UK. It can't hurt and if things look bad enough in Europe might even work.
14) Even with the cry being kill the jews in USSR don't set up active death camps, it's a logistical drain on the system. Ghetto's etc are good enough for now.
If POD is 1941.
1) Increase authority of Todt and other economic moves as described above.
2) Think seriously about delaying invasion another month. The invasion of the Balkans put a lot millage on the trucks and tanks of the German army and that needs to be made good still.
3) When attacking Soviets keep in mind that a winter halt line of some type needs to be found. No racing to Moscow to arrive at end of logistical tether just in time for winter to arrive. As above this is a multiyear campaign.
4) As above make campaign kill the Jews and Kill the Communists; freedom for peoples of Western Soviet Union.
5) Logistical problems mean that army is going to strip occupied territories of food so there is going to be famine and even starvation but try to avoid making it needlessly worse.
6) Don't declare war on USA.
Again comments on kill the jews, etc is attempt to keep this in mind set of Hitler, not my own thoughts on the matter.
Michael
Please Note that will keep some of the mindset of Hitler. Jews are evil, Soviets are evil and Germany is to be made a first class power. So this isn't me saying these things are good ideas.
If POD is after invasion of Poland.
1) It's time to fire Goering as Head of the 4 year plan and his role in the economy. It was fine to play political games in peace time but now that there is a real war on need to fight it. So assigned Fritz Todt as Reich Minister for Armaments and Munitions in 1939; Speer is Todt's deputy. End the bureaucratic mess of armaments by making the 3 services answerable to Todt and he absolute control raw materials, workers and factory assignment.
2) The deal with Soviets is a good one so push it to the limits in terms of raw materials.
3) Nothing Massively wrong with invasions of Denmark & Norway or Western Europe as historic. Any changes here I think require foresight so wouldn't make any.
4) After fall of France make a serious pitch at peace with UK. Make clear fate of occupied territories in the west is on the table for talks; IE everything accept Poland is open to talks. Make clear that Germany has no interest in occupation of UK itself. Odds are Churchill wont budge but you can at least make it painful for him politically. Start serious if slow talks with occupied nations for long term peace deals. Will organizing a European Block and some selective annexations. Warsaw Pact 0.1 with common currency perhaps.
5) After giving UK a week to think over the offer in 4 accept two things. First they are going to have be forced out of the war. Second Battle of Britain / Sea Lion aren't the way to do it; as bluff or as real plan. Only place can get at UK interests is Med. So talk to IL DUCE and work out a strategy for kicking the British out of the Med over next year or so. Keep pounding on the UK in the med objectives are Malta, Egypt and Gibraltar. All the while continuing to offer 'reasonable' peace terms, if 2 out of 3 are taken by summer 41 I expect that Churchill is going to start facing real pressure to do a deal.
6) Recalculate Economics program. Much of the pre-war assumptions don't make any sense now, especially with respect to raw materials.
7) Expect that Mussolini will do stupid stuff from time to time so will get sucked into Balkans, etc as historic.
8) If have taken Egypt, etc and UK still hasn't made a deal accept that you are stuck with them at your back and there is nothing to do about it unless willing to change objective to marching East to India. Since even Alexander failed at this turn eyes toward USSR. If UK does bows out go with Madagascar solution for Jews etc, logistics of the movement is UK's problem as part of the peace deal.
9) Accept that USSR is a multiyear campaign and will need to go deep into Russia to make it work. So more trucks, railroad engines, rolling stock and of course engineers are needed.
10) Consider perhaps trying to lure / provoke Soviets into attacking first. Poland is wonderful sack to lure the Soviets into. Logistics all favor the Germans and tactical air power can be used to full effect. If the Soviets attack they are ones trying to cram troops forward and the Germans can kill them with maneuver and airpower. Once Soviet offensive is smashed switch to counter offensive to role the soviets up.
11) Offer Freedom of people in western USSR. Tell them kill the Communists and kill the Jews. Independent nations after the war is won; I am Hitler and an evil SOB so I am lying through my teeth but whatever. Declare great crusade against communism, so recruit troops from occupied nations in west; wouldn't expect much more than historic SS totals but it might generate more if in combination of real effort at peace talks with the occupied nations.
12) Advance into USSR, rip off chunks of territory, organize and repair logistics. Repeat till someone shoots Stalin.
13) Don't declare war on USA. When Japan attacks USA and everyone else in Dec 41 renew offer of peace deal with UK. It can't hurt and if things look bad enough in Europe might even work.
14) Even with the cry being kill the jews in USSR don't set up active death camps, it's a logistical drain on the system. Ghetto's etc are good enough for now.
If POD is 1941.
1) Increase authority of Todt and other economic moves as described above.
2) Think seriously about delaying invasion another month. The invasion of the Balkans put a lot millage on the trucks and tanks of the German army and that needs to be made good still.
3) When attacking Soviets keep in mind that a winter halt line of some type needs to be found. No racing to Moscow to arrive at end of logistical tether just in time for winter to arrive. As above this is a multiyear campaign.
4) As above make campaign kill the Jews and Kill the Communists; freedom for peoples of Western Soviet Union.
5) Logistical problems mean that army is going to strip occupied territories of food so there is going to be famine and even starvation but try to avoid making it needlessly worse.
6) Don't declare war on USA.
Again comments on kill the jews, etc is attempt to keep this in mind set of Hitler, not my own thoughts on the matter.
Michael
my first thought too was 'don't do it.' But... wasn't Stalin planning on attacking the Germans sooner or later anyway? If you don't attack, you'd have to plan like hell as to how you're going to hold off the Russians. You'd need something better than the T-34, better planes, etc. Plus, those pesky Brits are still nipping at the boundaries of the Reich...
Flubber
Banned
I quite like both those scenarios you posted.
Unlike all the other suggestions made in this thread, your Nazis are still behaving like Nazis. They may be sneakier and may be planning more for the long run, but they haven't given up on their long term goals.
All the other suggestions made in this thread involve changing the Nazis rather than changing the Nazis' plans.
But if Germany doesn't ever attack the USSR, there is the chance of Stalin never attacking Germany anyway. There are two gambles here:
The first one is invading, which makes war a certainty, and that war may not be won.
The second gamble is not attacking. War, then, becomes an uncertainty. If it does, a better prepared Red Army would have to bleed itself against a solid defensive line and a better prepared, supplied and rested wehrmacht (sp?). If there is no war, well, there is no war and it's a matter of agreeing peace terms with the UK.
About the population, there is no way to win a population you'll be starving for a few years due the decreased food production because of the war. Even without the Nazi's extermination policies, there wasn't enough food in Europe in 1942 to feed everyone.
The question was how would you do it not how would you if you were a member of the Nazi Party do it.
Of course even in the Nazi Party there were more then one view on what they should do with Jews, Slavs and others in 1941.
I think the only people who believed that were those who took the Goebbels media at its word, and Victor Suvorov.
The USSR will be getting stronger at a faster rate than Germany, who will still be at war with Britain. There's the issue of Japan. I personally think that Japan would not risk attacking the US without the Germans deep inside Russia. But my view, that the attack on Pearl was a calculated gamble to be at the 1942 global peace conference (post USSR defeat) on a strong position is a minority one.
A soviet attack in 43 will be even more dangerous than one in 42.
The only way for Germany to come out on top in this gamble is if the UK folds in 42. In 1941 it's to late to dramatically alter the circumstances of the Battle of the Atlantic. You can factor in a massive Axis victory in north Africa but you'll be risking a lot.
My money would be on the soviets attacking in 42 and winning.
The USSR knew war with the Nazis was inevitable. It was a matter of when. We should assume they would strike when it was the most favourable moment, if given a chance. If you look at the soviet army, you'll see it was built for offensive operations.
The little corporal and his henchman would need to go. For simplicity assume a military coup. Then I think the new leader would have to do the following:
- Move to a total war economy.
- Drop the Final Solution.
- Preach salvation from communism.
- Ask FDR to broker a peace with Britain.
- Make Moscow main focus of invasion plan.
- Establish a Ukrainian government.
- Establish a 100 million mark bounty to deliver Stalin dead or alive.
Stalin seems conservative OTL in his political moves. A neutral Soviet Union sttacking the country with a fearsome well deserverd military reputation such as Germany doesn't seem a conservative, play it safe move, especially if there is no second front, and the Germans have access to the resources of Europe and have many of its minor peoples as allies.
If the Soviets are smart they will begin charging more for their resources, charge for transit rights of strategic supplies across the Trans Siberian from the far east and if Japan and the USA are at war attack the Japanese whenever the tide has turned and the Americans are obviously in it for the duration. Summer of 43 on. Sure the Germans coud attack to support their ally, but probably not by then and even if they did you would be on the defence.
In Europe once the pressure of USA entry gets serious, demand the 1914 boundry of Poland, Ruthenia and Finland from Germany. Don't really attack until there is a second front.
There is just so much the Soviets can get on the cheap here, why risk war if the Germans don't attack?
I can't say with a straight face that my setup is all that reasonable. Its within the realm of possible in that by mid 1944 Speer had very strong control over the economy but almost at once started to loose ground to Himmler and the SS. Hitler's Germany sucked at doing logistics, I think the Kaisers army was better at it. The Pan-European crusade and freedom of peoples in USSR happened but wasn't till 43 or 44 as a talking point. The problem is what gets Hitler of 1939 or 41 do it? The Med option was considered with Goering being the biggest backer of it but Hitler for lack of a better description just said f'it and decided to go after Stalin without doing any change in the economy to support a USSR focus campaign.
There are some very unHitler like things in my idea. This Hitler would have to be willing to sit on his henchmen and establish order; very unhitler. I have made them / hitler more focused but still evil and still dedicated to destruction of USSR.
If Med strategy works, a maybe, then that could generate victory as it allows Germany to import. It means the occupied territories economies will function. With UK out of the war France and others are going to make best deal they can with Europe's new overlord. So Spain sends a Corps East instead of a Division, Italy sends an Army east instead of a Corps. France and other nations also send troops East. USSR is in deep trouble here.
Michael
I am reading this timeline and hope you soon post MORE...
Concerning Stalin - if Germany would have waited longer Russia also would have expanded the forces and at some time started nibbling away (territory lost after WWI) - the question is when to start. OTL the Germans started early (too early), but if the original Nazi plans (war ready by 1944) would have been followed through many things could have happened.
Russia jumped at the very first opportunity to nibble away on its neighbours (Poland, Finland, Baltics and Romania) and after the war completely went "colonial", so it is not far fetched to assume it would have striked on its own if Germany had kept quiet.
I think one has to view China under different aspects. before the Japanese attacked (37) china was divided in spheres of influence and was seen as a great market (Shanghai was one of the most prosperous cities worldwide in the early 30s). If at some time the communist threatened those market the Wallies would certainly intervene. OTL the Communists were pushed back by the KMT and did not get miuch support from Russia, but assume Russia is not occupied with Germany (at first) it might have supported MAO more and earlier. Then you easily get the mentioned scenario in (around) 1940.
After 1937 the KMT powerbase was declining (Japanese advance) while the reds concentrated and built up - Getting the former Manchuko IOTL also hepled the reds to win aquite a bit
- but thats not importanat in an alternate TL.All discussions about the probability of the USSR attacking in 42 sound different if you say attacking Nazi Germany instead of just attacking Germany.
The Soviets were very aware of what they were dealing with. They were also aware of the state their Armed Forces were in after the purges and would not risk war with germany before they were ready. When they were, giving the nature of the Red Army, an offensive war would suit them the best. Stalin would probably delay it a bit, but not much longer than Summer of 42.
Expecting the extremely offensive minded German Army to just keep watch on the growing threat in the East would be nearly impossible.
Crazy dictators aside, just the nature of the situation and of the forces in presence would lead to war quickly.
The Soviets were very aware of what they were dealing with. They were also aware of the state their Armed Forces were in after the purges and would not risk war with germany before they were ready. When they were, giving the nature of the Red Army, an offensive war would suit them the best. Stalin would probably delay it a bit, but not much longer than Summer of 42.
Expecting the extremely offensive minded German Army to just keep watch on the growing threat in the East would be nearly impossible.
Crazy dictators aside, just the nature of the situation and of the forces in presence would lead to war quickly.
Wont work.
Wont work.
Most of those guys wernt even ''troops'' to begin with, let alone ''elite'' ones.
ASB in Nazi Germany.
See point three.
Wont work. In fact most people would LTAO, at the idea.
Wont work, the Wehrmacht needed all those British & French trucks along with the other vehicles they could scrape up. In 1941 so they couldnt ''standardize''.
Eh? The Red Army would be strong enougth to rip the Wehrmacht to bits by 1946
Seriously, the only way to make Barbarossa ''work'' is not to launch it in the first place or indeed ever...
Not even this will work. The Germans needed to pay Soviets for the raw materials, oil and grain they received throughout 1940. The first payment in the amount equal to some 600 million Reichsmark was due in June/July, IIRC. If the Germans don't attack, then they must pay. The trouble (for them) is they have nothing to pay with. Their gold reserves were largely exhausted as were the foreign currency reserves. They could only pay back in industrial goods (machine tools and such) or in weapons or ships (such as "Bluecher").
The other alternative is accepting to agree to further amends to M-R pact. Soviets then continue supplying Third Reich, but it becomes virtually dependant to USSR.
Meanwhile, Soviet Union gets stronger, builds more productive capacity and completes reorganization of the Red Army. If we believe Stalin wanted to go to war against them eventually, he could do it first strangling Germany by withholding critical resources, and then attacking with superior forces into Poland. In fact, he wouldn't even need to attack. He could just cut off grain and oil shipments and strangle them slowly.
These Camp Guards & the Einsatzgruppen can become < IN NAME ONLY > an ELITE Assault Unit to try to break any Soviet fortify Defensive perimeter ..
A sort of Military Penal Battalion or Brigade to fight for the Reich wherever the Military Action is thickest and difficult....
Possibly...
Let Herr Hitler give out the order and see how 'efficient' his organization is at implementing these new set of Fuhrer orders that are theoretically to be carried out...
What about having an effective heavy/strategic bomber force?
Was one of the failings hidden by victory in the West and highlighted by BoB that the Luftwaffe medium bombers were tactical in nature and therefore couldn't carry sufficient bomb loads.
Haven't bothered to look at a mapo), but could the Urals be reached? (Cue howls of derision)
I know airpower can't win on its own, but longer range bombers would assist the Nazi cause both here and elsewhere.
Of course to do this would entail the wholesale rationalisation of armament production.
Just a thought to throw into the discussion...
Was one of the failings hidden by victory in the West and highlighted by BoB that the Luftwaffe medium bombers were tactical in nature and therefore couldn't carry sufficient bomb loads.
Haven't bothered to look at a map
o), but could the Urals be reached? (Cue howls of derision)I know airpower can't win on its own, but longer range bombers would assist the Nazi cause both here and elsewhere.
Of course to do this would entail the wholesale rationalisation of armament production.
Just a thought to throw into the discussion...
If they aren't planning Barbarrosa, then they can buy less. Still, they'll need something to pay for their imports anyway.
About the USSR attacking, none can know for sure. I'd say only Stalin really knew if he wanted to attack should the Germans remain peaceful (regarding the USSR, that is), if he knew to begin with.