OTL, ww II started in September 1939 with Germany declaring war to poland in September, after that the German Army defeated Poland in one month. Despite Hitler intention to attack France immediately, attack was postponed until may 1940, and France was defeated in 6 weeks. However, it seems that particularly Hitler was increasingly aware on the time schedule constraints of his ambitions. In the end, he also lamented war had not started earlier.
What if instead of September 1939, Hitler goes to Spring scalation against Poland just after seizing Czech Republik (all is planned in the same diplomatic punch), defeats Poland in spring and goes against France in September 1939, defeating France also more or less as OTL, with all french mobile park seized as OTL for barabarosaa (Norway being done just earlier in summer). Battle of Britain starts in end 1939 – beg 1940, but on a lower scale that OTL as Hitler has directly decided to go East as quick as possible to come back later against UK. Regarding Russia, lets assume that there is a non aggression pact in spring 1939 as autum’s OTL one, the Russians seize Bukovina and besarabia diplomaticaly in spring 39- spring 1940 and Red army first echelon is moved there and to former East Poland; Balkans are managed to be diplomatically progerman or neutral without both Yugoslavian coup and Mussolini’s invasion of Greece hapening. Regarding USSR-finish winter war, well, it can be as OTL or an autum war that goes winter 39-40 with OTL soviet and finnish performance & result.
Obviously OTL Germany was extremely lucky in his earlier victories and there are issues of time constraint and force build up that probably makes this close to ASB (we could go back to October 38 war start to a more pausible scenario, but I see other issues in it, so I prefer the described one) but what would be the effect of a June 1940 barbarossa considering the above? How are The Wermacht and the Red army of 1940 in relative terms compared to OTL 1941? Any chance of success or the operation was doomed in any case? I see issues with German Tank portfolio (critical low volumes of P-III and P-IV, maybe 600 best case at June 40 vs 1500 in 1941 OTL, also raw materials tighter than OTL without soviet deliveries of of OTL 1940-41; they could have started earlier in any case), but maybe they are offset by issues on the red Army and the purges being more recent. Maybe there also issues in Russian and German command compared to 1941, maybe is something in this scenario that makes Stalin anticipate better the attack…which you think would be the outcome?
What if instead of September 1939, Hitler goes to Spring scalation against Poland just after seizing Czech Republik (all is planned in the same diplomatic punch), defeats Poland in spring and goes against France in September 1939, defeating France also more or less as OTL, with all french mobile park seized as OTL for barabarosaa (Norway being done just earlier in summer). Battle of Britain starts in end 1939 – beg 1940, but on a lower scale that OTL as Hitler has directly decided to go East as quick as possible to come back later against UK. Regarding Russia, lets assume that there is a non aggression pact in spring 1939 as autum’s OTL one, the Russians seize Bukovina and besarabia diplomaticaly in spring 39- spring 1940 and Red army first echelon is moved there and to former East Poland; Balkans are managed to be diplomatically progerman or neutral without both Yugoslavian coup and Mussolini’s invasion of Greece hapening. Regarding USSR-finish winter war, well, it can be as OTL or an autum war that goes winter 39-40 with OTL soviet and finnish performance & result.
Obviously OTL Germany was extremely lucky in his earlier victories and there are issues of time constraint and force build up that probably makes this close to ASB (we could go back to October 38 war start to a more pausible scenario, but I see other issues in it, so I prefer the described one) but what would be the effect of a June 1940 barbarossa considering the above? How are The Wermacht and the Red army of 1940 in relative terms compared to OTL 1941? Any chance of success or the operation was doomed in any case? I see issues with German Tank portfolio (critical low volumes of P-III and P-IV, maybe 600 best case at June 40 vs 1500 in 1941 OTL, also raw materials tighter than OTL without soviet deliveries of of OTL 1940-41; they could have started earlier in any case), but maybe they are offset by issues on the red Army and the purges being more recent. Maybe there also issues in Russian and German command compared to 1941, maybe is something in this scenario that makes Stalin anticipate better the attack…which you think would be the outcome?
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