Barack Obama Doesn't Run in 2008. Who Would Make a Serious Challenge For Hillary Clinton?

If Senator from Illinois Barack Obama decided he hadn't served in the Senate long enough to distinguish himself, who would have made a serious challenge for the front-runner, Senator from New York Hillary Rodham Clinton? Obviously none of the candidates of OTL would, but maybe candidates that sat 2008 out? Some names I thought of included:
  • Former Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle of South Dakota
  • Senator from Wisconsin Russ Feingold
  • Former Governor of Virginia Mark Warner
 
Al Gore?

Edwards might win Iowa and mare a semi-serious challenge before he flames out.

Honestly, yeah, probably Gore or nobody. He was seriously riding high post-inconvenient Truth, even though it's kinda hard to appreciate now.
 
Al Gore?

Edwards might win Iowa and mare a semi-serious challenge before he flames out.
Honestly, yeah, probably Gore or nobody. He was seriously riding high post-inconvenient Truth, even though it's kinda hard to appreciate now.
Well I know Al Gore could have beaten Hillary Clinton, but what about a candidate who never won the nomination or even a candidate who did not run previously? Obama was seen to the Democrats as a "breath of fresh air". Is there anyone that could be seen in a similar light?
 

nbcman

Donor
No Obama, then HRC sails to the nomination with ease.

+1 to that. The only other strong competition to Senator Clinton was John Edwards whose candidacy would have imploded as stories of his infidelity and dubious campaign financing would have surfaced faster if he continued to run. A wild card is if Oprah Winfrey decides to back another candidate as strongly as she did Senator Obama. Her support was critical to Senator Obama's surprise win in Iowa.
 
Feingold decided against running right after the 2006 election. By then Clinton, Obama, and Edwards were all running, but Obama had been in the Senate two years, and it looked like a clear Clinton victory.
 
John Kerry, wesley Clark and Howard Dean are slim possibilities. Mark warner was expected to run, he's an option.
 
John Kerry, wesley Clark and Howard Dean are slim possibilities. Mark warner was expected to run, he's an option.

With no Obama, HRC owns the black vote (the Clintons were extremely popular with African-Americans, remember the bit about Bill being our first black president?) and the women's vote. Add in the fact that some white men will vote for her as well and the rest of the field is DOA.
 
With no Obama, HRC owns the black vote (the Clintons were extremely popular with African-Americans, remember the bit about Bill being our first black president?) and the women's vote. Add in the fact that some white men will vote for her as well and the rest of the field is DOA.

Yes, the only possible threat is Gore, who could gain white voters and cut into Clinton's margins with black voters, but even that is questionable.
 
Yes, the only possible threat is Gore, who could gain white voters and cut into Clinton's margins with black voters, but even that is questionable.

I don't see Gore trying for a comeback. He'll will be seen as someone who had his chance and now it is H's turn. I honestly think there was only one Democratic politician who could have ruined her coronation in 2008 and he happens to be the current president.
 
John Edwards, his affair became hot news in August of 2008, the primaries were already long gone!

If not Edwards, then probably Tim Kaine.
 
I don't see Gore trying for a comeback. He'll will be seen as someone who had his chance and now it is H's turn. I honestly think there was only one Democratic politician who could have ruined her coronation in 2008 and he happens to be the current president.

Again, you need to remember that An Inconvenient Truth happened, and turned him into a superstar again (or for the first time, really) in 2006. If he'd been determined that early to take another shot at the White House, he could have leveraged that into something big, especially as "the ultimate repudiation of Bush" or some such. The media would eat that up, and lionize him almost as much as they did Obama. His chances are still not great, but they were better than it's easy to recognize now that he's basically gone back into the background and not drawn any additional attention to himself since.
 

Minty_Fresh

Banned
It'd have to be someone who can win the black vote or compete for it strongly. Clinton's success with working class whites in 2008 was quite notable, but she had to basically restructure her entire approach and abandon the progressive vote to do so.

So it would have to be someone very popular with the coalition that defeated her (young progressives and black voters). That would mean that someone with openly Atheistic views is a no go.

Perhaps Al Sharpton? Granted, that is a tough sell, and McCain would crush him, TARP baggage and all, but maybe Sharpton could beat her. Or what about John Conyers, popular with the rabidly antiwar left and black voters alike.
 
Edwards would fair better in the early states and probably stay in a little longer, but he'd still implode eventually and withdraw from the race. I'd have to agree that Al Gore is the best bet at beating Hillary should Obama sit it out. He reinvented himself, as TRH said, An Inconvenient Truth made him very popular with the liberal base, and most of the party felt he was cheated out of the Presidency in 2000, he could win soley on what could've been, given how bad Bush's two terms were.
 
I bet you said the exact same thing a year ago for the 2016 primaries

That doesn't mean she doesn't win in 2008. here's how I see it going. Edwards wins Iowa. clinton wins New Hampshire. Nevada goes Clinton. South Carolina is a Clinton landslide, despite Edwards's hopes of competing with white voters she overwhelms him with the black vote. Edwards has no momentum and then affair questions start popping up. Clinton wins all the states she won and sweeps the South too, though Edwards might grab a few states. Clinton has a big delegate lead. Edwards loses. She wins. Obama got pretty lucky and even Obama, a really strong candidate, virtually tied with Clinton in the primaries (well, it was very close and the superdelegates gave it to Obama). Against a lightweight like Edwards, Clinton sweeps,
 
And she did sail to the nomination with ease to be fair. Bernie Sanders was never a truly serious challenge and for all practical purposes Clinton wrapped it up months ago.

If Sanders had won Iowa and parlayed that… but yeah, probably not.

There's not a lot of unreconstructed leftists (or even elected officials against the Iraq War, a key part of Obama's performance, alongside the black vote, in the USA who could take up the mantle in 2008 (aside from the dearly departed Wellstone) and people like Warner weren't a real threat.
 
Top