Baltimore Crisis-war between USA and Chile

Yun-shuno

Banned
Basically the war started over some sailors spitting on a portrait. They are stabbed and tensions result. The underlying strategic causes were growing US influence in Latin America, as well as Chile expanding annexing Easter Island, building up its navy, and becoming a potential hegemon in its own right.

Is war possible? If so the results? Chile isn't some banana republic like Honduras is at this point where the US can send the marines in and topple a government that doesn't submit to the will of Wall Street creditors.

It's a lot farther away, and certainly wouldn't be an easy walk in.

So is there any potential for conflict?
 

Yun-shuno

Banned
To summarize the background there was a brief Chilean civil war in which the rebelling faction won but the government was backed by the United States. Also Previously Chile had emerged as a competitor to the US after the end of the war in the pacific.

What I am asking is what would happen in the event of war between the two?
 
I've contemplated this war, and there's no question that the US will win. It won't be quite as easy as some other wars, maybe, but easy enough. Probably Benjamin harrison gets reelected (it was close, after all) what with the 'rally-round-the-flag' effect.
 

Yun-shuno

Banned
I've contemplated this war, and there's no question that the US will win. It won't be quite as easy as some other wars, maybe, but easy enough. Probably Benjamin harrison gets reelected (it was close, after all) what with the 'rally-round-the-flag' effect.
How long do you think it will take the US to occupy the capital?
 
How long do you think it will take the US to occupy the capital?

Well, they might have a draft, though I doubt it. There will definitely be a lot of volunteers, and "for most of this decade [the 1890s], the Regular Army's organizational structure consisted of five regiments of artillery, ten regiments of cavalry, and twenty-five regiments of infantry." Considering Chile's just gone through a rather nasty civil war, there's no Panama Canal, and there's no way that Chile can do anything on the offensive, I'd say 4 months. It'll practically be an earlier - and easier - Spanish-American War. The butterflies might be interesting, though, with a more imperialist US.
 
I wonder if they'd try for outright annexation, or if they will weaken Chile by making them give land back to Bolivia and Peru, who I have the feeling might be more than eager to jump at Chile for round two now they have "the gringos" on their side.
 
Wasn't this right in the middle of the 1891 Chilean Civil War? Wouldn't the US just make sure a different faction wins and does what they say? Reparations, etc.

More US influence in Chile, more US control of Chilean economic assets, maybe the US even grabs Easter Island?

I wonder if they'd try for outright annexation, or if they will weaken Chile by making them give land back to Bolivia and Peru, who I have the feeling might be more than eager to jump at Chile for round two now they have "the gringos" on their side.

Annexation means adding a bunch of non-English speaking Catholics to the country, and it isn't even as close as Puerto Rico or Cuba. Occupation like the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and parts of Central America is an option, but possibly a bit costly considering the size of the country plus the distance. And why would they give the land back to Bolivia or Peru when US victory in this war means they can impose whatever they want in terms of advancing US economic interests there, whereas they can't do the same as easily in Peru or Bolivia (different people to bribe, British competition, etc.).
 
If the Americans try a more direct intervention the South American and European countries would vehemently oppose. Think of a Venezuelan Crisis and Drago Doctrine à l'envers.
 
I thought this incident and the fact that Chile had a stronger/more modern Navy than USA for a brief moment was what spurred a massive naval expansion in the USA after a wave of fear mongering? I thought USA have neglected naval expansion at that moment while South America engaged in a massive naval arms race?
If correct, this is not "an earlier Spanish-American war" - the latter was won with the fleet that has been built after (and due to) the said incident. It is likely that US invasion attempt fails. Chile OTOH definitely does not have the resources for a counterattack, and the victory will be probably pyrrhic. I doubt that USA will keep up the interest to try it again with the new fleet years later - but from this point on USA will do pretty much everything in their might to undermine Chilean position in South America, such as support (financially and technically) a Pacific War Round 2.
 

Yun-shuno

Banned
I thought this incident and the fact that Chile had a stronger/more modern Navy than USA for a brief moment was what spurred a massive naval expansion in the USA after a wave of fear mongering? I thought USA have neglected naval expansion at that moment while South America engaged in a massive naval arms race?
If correct, this is not "an earlier Spanish-American war" - the latter was won with the fleet that has been built after (and due to) the said incident. It is likely that US invasion attempt fails. Chile OTOH definitely does not have the resources for a counterattack, and the victory will be probably pyrrhic. I doubt that USA will keep up the interest to try it again with the new fleet years later - but from this point on USA will do pretty much everything in their might to undermine Chilean position in South America, such as support (financially and technically) a Pacific War Round 2.
Do you think Chile if not actually "winning" could at least give the Americans a bloody nose?
 

ben0628

Banned
Read the Wikipedia article about this. The incident occurred almost immediately after the Chilean Civil War. The revolting faction (I believe the navy and legislative branch of the government) defeated the president and the army. Problem was the US supported the Chilean president so tension arose when the revolting faction won the civil war. Tension got worse when the US offered asylum to membof the previous Chilean government. Things got out of hand when a US ship made port in the Chile's main coastal city, and the sailors got drunk and spat on a picture of a Chilean war hero (like a British person coming to Baltimore, getting drunk, and spitting on a portrait of George Washington). Long story short, Chileans got pissed and beat the shit out of the US sailors, kill two of them.

Now in otl, the diplomatic solution was found, but only because Chile apologized and gave the US a pile of money. Now if the Chileans are more stubborn, I could see a war breaking out.

Pre Chilean Civil War, the Chilean navy was stronger than the US. However when the Baltimore incident occurred, the naval matchup was slightly (slightly) in the US's favor. If war broke out, there is a chance the US Navy could lose, which is why the US would probably get Peru, Bolivia, and maybe even Argentina to join in, which would totally fuck over Chile. At the same time though however, Chile's army is much better than both Peru and Bolivia, and Northern Chile is nothing but desert (giving the advantage to the defense). Also the British have economic interests in Chile, so they'd pressure everyone for a peaceful solution. At the same time though, I could see Chile trying to get get Brazil and Colombia to join in on the conflict so we could be possibility looking at a potential "Great South American War."
 

Yun-shuno

Banned
Read the Wikipedia article about this. The incident occurred almost immediately after the Chilean Civil War. The revolting faction (I believe the navy and legislative branch of the government) defeated the president and the army. Problem was the US supported the Chilean president so tension arose when the revolting faction won the civil war. Tension got worse when the US offered asylum to membof the previous Chilean government. Things got out of hand when a US ship made port in the Chile's main coastal city, and the sailors got drunk and spat on a picture of a Chilean war hero (like a British person coming to Baltimore, getting drunk, and spitting on a portrait of George Washington). Long story short, Chileans got pissed and beat the shit out of the US sailors, kill two of them.

Now in otl, the diplomatic solution was found, but only because Chile apologized and gave the US a pile of money. Now if the Chileans are more stubborn, I could see a war breaking out.

Pre Chilean Civil War, the Chilean navy was stronger than the US. However when the Baltimore incident occurred, the naval matchup was slightly (slightly) in the US's favor. If war broke out, there is a chance the US Navy could lose, which is why the US would probably get Peru, Bolivia, and maybe even Argentina to join in, which would totally fuck over Chile. At the same time though however, Chile's army is much better than both Peru and Bolivia, and Northern Chile is nothing but desert (giving the advantage to the defense). Also the British have economic interests in Chile, so they'd pressure everyone for a peaceful solution. At the same time though, I could see Chile trying to get get Brazil and Colombia to join in on the conflict so we could be possibility looking at a potential "Great South American War."
Now that's an interesting idea!
 
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