Well, I'd suppose that annexing Finland would look worthwhile enough, even without Courland (which would be nicely vassalised under Maurice anyway).
Baltic Blunder: Europe at war in 1727
- Thread starter Archduke
- Start date
It would but the goal of a continued war becomes unclear if Sweden is ready to give up Finland or at least a part of it, which is important for the Russian defensive purposes. Of course, to be fair, Russian Empire of the XVIII was more than once engaged in the purely cabinet wars which did not result in any acquisitions and did not even make territorial acquisition a primary goal. However, for the war which involves more than just sending an auxiliary corps to an ally some political goal would be helpful, which means that a "bad guy" should be found. This TL provides some kind of a bad guy, the Brits who attacked Russia without being provoked, so doing something nasty to Hanover (or Brunswick? I keep forgetting all these British dynastic thingies) is a worthwhile goal but Denmark becomes rather irrelevant because PII does not have Holsteinian relatives to support.
In other words, Russian operations in Germany don't have a clear end strategy and can be stopped at any time with the reasonable terms of a peace (Britain is a major Russian trade partner). OTOH, PII can be compelled to keep helping his Austrian relatives with the Russian troops ending up on the Rhine or in Italy while an army operating in Finland may be strengthened to crush Swedish resistance and force cessation of Finland (and provide M.M.Golitsin and the whole clan with a greater prestige). Dolgorukov family, having a prominent diplomat, may gain from arranging the gainful peace treaty so providing their own fieldmarshal with an independent command and glory is not a must.
Of course, these are just my considerations and I'm not trying to tell the author how to write his TL (well, and I can sell you a nice bridge really cheap
).Why? Unlike CI (and EI), PII not just did not have any link to them but had all reasons to be hostile to them: they were linked to the Romanovs through Catherine’s daughter and, unless PII is extremely open-minded (or whatever) why would he feel any sympathy to the people related to the person who was actively involved in a violent death of his father and usurped the throne which was rightfully his?
And if PII is just a boy, Vasily Dolgorukov seriously suffered from being supporter of Alexei: he was tortured, beaten by the knout, deprived of his estates and of his military rank and sent to exile. Keeping in mind close relations within Dolgorukov family (and very close links between Ivan Dolgorukov and PII), why would they even consider rewarding Catherine’ daughter and her husband?
From Golitsin’s perspective, it would make much more sense to have Michael as a person who added Finland to Russia than to make Finland into a “no conquest” which would be necessary to defend from Sweden.
Not to mention that none of the members of the Supreme Council (after Menshikov was dealt with) wanted Catherine’s line anywhere close to the succession (and having them in Finland would mean excessively close physical proximity which may make them too adventurous): in OTL after death of PII Peter’s line (Catherine’s daughters) was rejected in a favor of Ivan’s daughter even if Elizabeth, unlike Anne, was present in Russia.
17: Treaty of Vienna
17: Treaty of Vienna
Andrey Osterman, the stateman behind the Treaty of Vienna
Andrey Osterman, the stateman behind the Treaty of Vienna
Alexander Menshikov returned to St. Petersburg from the Schleswig front on January 21st, 1729. Despite the brevity of Menshikov's absence, the Russia which Menshikov came home to was quite different from the one he had left. Without his powerful figure close at hand, the enemies of Menshikov had managed to gain a foot in the door to real power in Russia. The Golitsyn family had turned the military success of Mikhail Mikhailovich Golitsyn into absolute triumphs in Empress Catherine's eyes. Prince Dmitry Mikhailovich Golitsyn had so vividly and vibrantly described Mikhail's victories that Catherine had felt it necessary to name Mikhail to the Supreme Privy Council of Russia [1]. This promotion turned the already heroic and honorable Mikhail from a celebrated person in Russian affairs to a potential leader in Russian politics, which essentially created a foil to the personage of Menshikov. Additionally, the allies of the Golityns, the Dolgorukovs had risen back to the top. After months of carousing the Empress, Vasily Lukich Dolgorukov had managed to convince Catherine of his indispensability to the functioning of the Russian state and earned himself a place on the Supreme Privy Council [2]. Using this new position, Vasily Lukich secured the title of Field Marshal for his kinsman Vasily Vladimirovich Dolgorukov [3]. Overall, Menshikov's enemies gained two council positions and now constituted half of Russia's field marshals. The only saving grace was that Menshikov's personal enemy, Pavel Yaguzhinsky was still far away in Poland struggling to manage the Sejm's politics [4].
Confronted with strengthened enemies, the reason for Menshikov's return was all the more worrying. Once again, the Empress, Catherine, had fallen ill and provoked concern for her well-being. Menshikov had left Schleswig with the hope that he might return once he defeated any of his rivals' plans to take advantage of Catherine's weak health and mental state. However, now that Menshikov was home he first saw just how dangerously powerful his opponents had grown and next witnessed that Catherine was not merely ill but perhaps nearing her demise. Under these conditions, Menshikov understood that there was no place for him on the front; instead, Menshikov needed to be in St. Petersburg, the center of all the empire's intrigues and plots. In the capital, Menshikov could personally oversee the transition of monarchs upon Catherine's death and ensure that no matter who replaced Catherine on the throne that he remained the man behind the throne. Otherwise, the all-powerful Menshikov might, in fact, end up being the latest political exile in Siberia.
Since Menshikov was no longer going to fight Empress Catherine's War allowing Russia to fight in the war any longer immediately became less worthwhile to Russia's first man. No longer was it possible for the Generalissimo to add to his personal. Instead, only his rivals, the Duke of Holstein and Mikhail Golitsyn, stood to gain glory from a continued war. Furthermore, without the triumph of victories, what did Menshikov's Russia stand to win from more combat. Already, Russia's war effort had achieved its primary objectives as laid out Empress Catherine when she proclaimed that "she would destroy Hanover and crush Britain and all its allies". Hanover had been conquered, Britain had been trounced at Kymmendalen, Sweden and Denmark had both been pummeled. The only war goal that Russia had not accomplished was the reconquest of Schleswig. However, the Russians had already liberated Holstein for Charles Frederick, which certainly was enough for Russia to feel that it had honored her alliance with the German duke. All in all, there was no reason for Russia to fight on and so Menshikov decided that Russia would not.
Typically in this age, despite fighting wars alongside allies countries would quit wars without them. Indeed, Spain had done just this in 1728 with the Treaty of Madrid and Russia had previously done the same in 1721 with the Treaty of Nystad. However, to end Empress Catherine's War Menshikov did not feel that the typical approach was appropriate. Although Russia could certainly secure an honorable exit to the war with a separate treaty that was not Menshikov's concern. Throughout Russia's history, foreign powers have consistently intervened in Russian politics. Since Catherine was expected to die soon Menshikov desired to avoid provoking the ire of either the Holy Roman Emperor or the King in Prussia. If either monarch had reason to harm Menshikov then their agents might interfere with the delicate process of a Russian succession, which might be in the key factor in Menshikov ending the year of 1729 in a Siberian cabin. Rather than risk that fate, Menshikov sent Osterman on a mission to Vienna to confide with the Emperor and Prussia's diplomats so that all three powers could make peace as one [5].
Considering the might and influence which the title of Holy Roman Emperor still held in 1729, Osterman came to Vienna prepared and expecting to make a number of concessions to Emperor Charles VI in order to create a set of peace terms which both the Emperor and Menshikov were happy with. Despite Osterman's expectations, Charles VI asked for little at all. Even though the Hapsburg armies had won the great victory of Bassignana and a political victory of Bellheim Charles asked for no land for his realm. Instead, all Charles VI saw fit to suggest to Osterman was that each signatory of the final peace treaty also guaranteed the succession of Charles' daughter, Maria Theresa, to the Habsburg family's territories. Additonally, Austria would accept the terms of the Treaty of Madrid, including Don Carlos' rights to Tuscany, so long as Spain too agreed to guaranteed Maria Theresa's succession. Besides this pragmatic sanction, the only thing Charles asked for was that the Maritime Power's restrictions of the Ostend Company were lowered. Overall, neither of these terms was particularly difficult to accomplish which made Osterman wonder why the Holy Roman Emperor had not made peace already [6].
After discovering and acceding to the desires of the Holy Roman Emperor, Osterman needed to handle Prussia's interests. For this purpose, Osterman and the Hapsburgs approached Prussia together as both were concerned by the steady rise of the Prussian state. King Frederick William I's diplomats conveyed to the Imperial powers that Prussia wanted both Swedish Pomerania and the Electorate of Brunswick-Luneburg as the price for its army's efforts. The first request was necessary for Prussia's expansion and the second request was meant to humiliate Frederick William's personal rival, King George II of Great Britain [7]. Russia and the Hapsburgs readily agreed that Pomerania was Prussia's by right of conquest but flatly rejected the idea that Prussia should gain a piece of Brunswick-Luneburg let alone all of it. The next several weeks saw Prussia slowly convince both the Imperial powers to at the very least grant the County of Danneberg to Prussia.
Regarding the other German allies, the Holy Roman Emperor sought to offer each of them a just reward for their services. The smallest member of the Viennese Alliance, the Principality of Brunswick-Wolfenbuttel was to be greatly expanded by the annexation of the Principality of Calenberg. However, part of Calenburg, the Principality of Grubenhagen, would be split off and given to the Elector of Saxony, Augustus the Strong, in recognition of Saxony's contribution. The main prize of Saxony though was that the Holy Roman Emperor and Osterman agreed to support the candidature of Frederick Augustus, Augustus the Strong's son, to the Polish throne upon his father's death [8]. Another son of Augustus II also stood to gain from this peace. Since Menshikov was eager to keep the young, excellent general Maurice out of St. Petersburg he designed for Maurice to become the Duke of Courland in his own right so long as he married Anna Ivanovna. Although Augustus, a famed lover, was reluctant to force his illegitimate son into a marriage he supported Menshikov's scheme as it meant that Maurice would be a ruler and that Courland would retain some connection to Poland-Lithuania. The Duchy of Mecklenburg-Schwerin would be augmented by the Duchy of Lauenburg. Lastly, the Wittelsbach electors of Bavaria and Cologne were awarded with the election of the Prince-Archbishop of Cologne to the Prince-Bishopric of Osnabruck [9].
For Russia herself, Menshikov had the following items in mind. First, Menshikov had to please the pride of Empress Catherine, by demanding that the King of Great Britain formally apologize for the illegal attack upon Admiral Apraksin's fleet in the Baltic. Second, Menshikov sought to appeal to Catherine's love for her daughters, Anna and Elizabeth, and her son-in-laws, Charles Frederick and Charles Augustus, by securing them German lands. Charles Frederick would have Holstein and Schleswig restored in their entirety to him by Denmark-Norway, and Charles Augustus would gain the Duchies of Bremen and Verden from the Electorate of Brunswick-Luneburg [10]. Third, Sweden would cede Finland to Russia. This last item was for Menshikov himself as he intended to turn Finland into his own private estate [11].
Having collected all the peace terms of the Viennese Alliance, Osterman delivered these terms to the British and French ambassadors in Vienna. From Vienna, both ambassadors sent the proposed peace home and waited for further instruction. In London, the reaction to Osterman's peace was outrage. Robert Walpole immediately attacked Spencer Compton for coordinating so horrid of a war effort that these terms were even considered within reach by Britain's enemies. Despite the scathing reviews Compton received from Walpole and the opposition, he did not break under the pressure and was able to determine for himself that such a treaty went too far. For Compton, his main points of contention were allowing the Ostend Company breathing space, which would damn Compton receiving any support from the merchants, and complete butchering of Brunswick-Luneburg, which would damn Compton in the King George's eyes. Across the Channel, in Paris, the reaction was strikingly different. Cardinal Fleury was desperate for an exit from the miserable war as he did not foresee a way to defeat the Hapsburgs so long as Russia could put an army in Germany [12]. Behind France's premier, King Louis XV also had lost his fervor for war after the defeat at Bellheim. Despite France's wish for peace, Fleury agreed with Compton to refuse the Viennese Alliance's terms. Even if the Franco-British alliance had failed to perform in this war Fleury was not yet ready to abandon the alliance.
The refusal of the first peace offer of the Viennese Alliance was to be expected as very few wars ended without an extended negotiation. Once Osterman relayed Britain and France's answer to Menshikov, the Russian strongman quickly began to trim down his term sheet. Firstly, Menshikov instructed Osterman to remove the demand for Schleswig since Russian arms had not actually conquered it. Next, Menshikov decided that a British apology was not necessary because Menshikov was already appeasing Catherine by giving both of her daughters' husbands land. Lastly, Menshikov offered that it might be a good idea to convince the Hapsburgs to drop the Ostend Company from the treaty or the Prussians to drop the annexation of Dannenberg. Either revision would make the treaty more acceptable to the British Parliament. However, when Osterman approached the Hanoverian Alliance again after having dropped both Schleswig and the Ostend Company from his demands, he was again rejected [13].
The reason for the second rejection by the Hanoverian Alliance was that they begin to sense the possibility of chaos in Russia upon Empress Catherine's death. In spite of the fact that Menshikov was still Russia's first man, France's agents in St. Petersburg had taken note of the growing strength of Menshikov's opposition. As mentioned earlier, in Menshikov's absence the conservative Golitsyns and Dolgorukovs had rerisen to a challenging position. More significant, however, was the emergence of a Holstein party in St. Petersburg. Thus far Menshikov had seemed predisposed toward the idea of Tsarevitch Alexei's son, Peter, succeeding Catherine. This provoked anxiety in Peter Tolstoy, the man who was responsible for capturing Tsarevitch Alexei and bringing him to Peter the Great to be killed. Rather than chance that the young Peter would forgive Tolstoy for this crime, Tolstoy decided to lot against the succession of Peter Alexeyevich. The main candidate which Tolstoy wanted to raise to the throne was Catherine's second daughter, Elizabeth [14]. Other members of the court of St. Petersburg supported the idea of circumventing Peter Alexeyevich's rise and Menshikov's continued but they believed that Catherine's first daughter, Anne, should succeed to the throne. The source of disagreement over which daughter to support was not due to the merits of either daughter but rather the merits of their husbands. Elizabeth's husband, Charles Augustus, was an almost completely unknown character to the Russian nobles, which presented a number of risks should he become the emperor-consort. However, Tolstoy deemed those risks acceptable since Anne's husband, Charles Frederick, was known not just be competent but to be ambitious and formidable, which meant that Tolstoy might be replacing one devil with another [15]. Of course, in an unclear succession alternative candidates are to be expected. The reason that these alternative candidates were concerning to Menshikov and interesting to the Hanoverian Alliance was that the Holsteiners were currently at the head of a Russian army in Schleswig alongside Peter Lacy and Maurice of Saxony. Thus there was potential for both the Holsteiners to lead the Schleswig army and for Mikhail Golitsyn to lead the Finland army against Menshikov in a succession struggle upon Empress Catherine's death [16]. So long as the Hanoverian Alliance could envision this future, they could negotiate for more favorable terms. However, Menshikov also saw this possibility.
The way in which Menshikov decided to approach this possibility to command both the Russian army in Schleswig and the Russian army in Finland to position themselves aggressively and to launch some spring raids against the enemy. In doing so, Menshikov sought to both distract the armies of the Holsteiners and Golitsyns as well as to reapply the pressure of war upon the Hanoverians. Soon enough both Peter Lacy and Mikhail Golitsyn complied with their orders and sent out war parties against their Scandinavian opponents. In neither case were these raids militarily significant. However, they did successfully remind Britain and France of the state of the war: Russia was winning. Additionally, Menshikov had arranged for Charles Frederick to be personally in charge of the Schleswig raids, which made Britain and France less confident about the strength of Russia's Holstein party. In St. Petersburg, the Holstein party was indeed weaker than the British or French imagined, however, the main factor behind this weakness was their lack of consensus over which daughter and thus husband to choose. Still, Menshikov was antsy to have peace before the Holsteiners could actually organize themselves.
In light of this situation, Osterman pressed the British and French for peace again. This time the British and French were more delicate in their response even if the response remained negative. As Osterman attempted move negotiations forward the British and French began to delay and dawdle in hopes that they could prolong negotiations long enough for Catherine to actually die so that they could actually see how Russia's succession played out. However, the man whom Britain and France's diplomats were contending with was one of Europe's premier statesmen so he caught on these delaying tactics rather quickly. Considering that Menshikov was urging Osterman to wrap up the peace process and that Osterman himself wished to be in Russia for the succession, Osterman only had one card left to play: an ultimatum. Consequently, just as Osterman had done at Nystad, Osterman delivered an ultimatum to the British and French diplomats that they must accept the Viennese Alliances now or war would be had for at least another year if not more.
Upon being presented with the ultimatum, the British and French both panicked just as Osterman had hoped. Lacking the time to contact their respective leaders of state, the negotiators needed to make a peace and needed to make it right away; however, the negotiators felt that if they accepted the terms as they stood that the peace treaty would be rejected once it went west. In that case, the war would continue, a war which the Hanoverian Alliance lacked the military power and political will to win. Over the course of the night, the negotiators loudly argued and traded barbs over what sort of peace they accept. By midnight, the negotiators had agreed to ask that Prussia not receive Dannenberg, however, Brunswick-Luneburg would forfeit the rest of the demanded territories. The question of Finland hung heavy over the negotiators. The negotiators were smart enough to realize that a cession of Finland to Russia would effectively cede Sweden as well since the Russian Navy could easily descend from Helsingfors upon Stockholm. This capability would mean that Sweden would be helpless against Russian aggression and thus would be forced to become subservient to Russian interests. However, the negotiators were also smart enough to realize that Russia fervently desired Southern Finland as a buffer for St. Petersburg. Ultimately, around 4 a.m. the French had suggested to and convinced the British of the idea of separating Finland from Sweden and giving it to the House of Holstein-Gottorp. In this fashion, Britain and France could create a buffer for both Sweden and Russia. Through these two counterproposals, Britain and France's negotiators hoped that they would not anger Osterman but also avoid the wrath of their rulers at home.
When Osterman was presented with Britain and France's acceptance of every term save for Dannenberg and Finland, he was presented with a choice. Either Osterman could back down from his ultimatum to continue negotiations, which would dangerously damage his credibility and prolong his stay in Vienna, or Osterman could take the peace offer as it stood and risk putting himself at odds with Menshikov over his failure to secure Finland. Ultimately, Osterman felt that he could better serve his own interests in St. Petersburg than in Vienna, so Osterman accepted the counterproposal [17]. The document which the British and French negotiators and Osterman signed on April 18th, 1729 was designated the Treaty of Vienna. The treaty's terms are as follows. Every signor of the treaty will accept and guarantee the Pragmatic Sanction of 1713, should any state try to violate this sanction each guarantor will come to the aid of the Hapsburgs. The Holy Roman Emperor nominates the Prince-Archbishop of Cologne to the vacant Prince-Archbishopric of Osnabruck. The Kingdom of Sweden will cede its Pomeranian possessions in its entirety, including Rugen, to the Elector of Brandenburg. The Electorate of Brunswick-Luneburg will forfeit the Principality of Calenberg to the Prince of Brunswick-Wolfenbuttel, the Principality of Grubenhagen to the Elector of Saxony, the Duchy of Lauenburg to the Duke of Mecklenburg-Schwerin, and the Duchies of Bremen and Verden to the Prince of Eutin. The Kingdom of Denmark relinquishes all claims to the Duchy of Holstein and returns it in its entirety to the Duke of Holstein-Gottorp. The Duke of Holstein-Gottorp relinquishes all claims to the Duchy of Schleswig. The Kingdom of Sweden frees Finland as the Kingdom of Finland. The Duke of Holstein-Gottorp is recognized as the King of Finland. The King of Great Britain and the British Parliament will issue an apology to Empress Catherine for the misdeeds of Admiral Norris in the Baltic. All prisoners are to be exchanged and all occupied land not mentioned in these terms is to be returned to its initial owner. Lastly, the Kingdom of Spain is invited to sign this treaty. If Spain does so then the Holy Roman Emperor will accept the Treaty of Madrid in its entirety [18].
When the treaty did arrive in London, Compton felt that its best that he could have accomplished. Although the treaty marked a definite defeat for Britain she had avoided the complete cession of Brunswick-Luneburg and protections of a rival trading company. The Parliament demonstrated its agreement with Compton's assessment by ratifying it quickly after it was put before them. This ratification, of course, was accompanied by another series of attacks upon Compton by Walpole, however, these ones were almost half-hearted as Walpole also yearned for Britain to be at peace. In France, the feeling of resignation toward defeat led to quick acceptance of the treaty. The Duke of Savoy having lost Bassignana and much of his land afterward giddily accepted a treaty that required nothing from him but a promise to the Holy Roman Emperor. The Dutch Republic was also happy to end the expensive and pointless war. The Scandinavian members of the Hanoverian Alliance were less excited. In Denmark-Norway, General Reventlow felt that he might be able to retake Holstein or at least parts of it. Meanwhile, in Sweden, they hung on to the fact that not all of Finland had actually been conquered. However, with both Britain and France pressing down upon them, the Scandinavian kingdoms acceded to the peace treaty. Thus the Hanoverian Alliance agreed to the Treaty of Vienna.
Among the members of the Viennese Alliance, there were also some ranged reactions to the final treaty. The Holy Roman Emperor was saddened to see that his diplomats and Osterman could not work the Ostend Company into the treaty. However, the acceptance of the Pragmatic Sanction was a significant victory in Emperor Charles VI's eyes, which made the whole war worth it. The Elector of Bavaria, Charles Albert, and his brother, the Prince-Archbishop of Cologne, Clemens August, accepted the treaty because they expected further rewards to come from Charles down the line. King Augustus II was content with what the treaty included in its written terms but mainly accepted the treaty due to the secret agreement with the Hapsburgs and Russia that accompanied that treaty. The minor German princes were all more than happy to see their small efforts rewarded with great prizes. The only German prince who was disappointed was the King in Prussia. Actually, King Frederick William felt betrayed since Osterman had failed to inform Prussia that Dannenberg was being removed from the treaty. Unfortunately, with everyone else leaving the war Prussia did not feel that fighting on alone was advisable.
Finally, in Russia and among its high circles, the treaty was also received in a mixed fashion. Obviously, Menshikov was irritated by the fact that Osterman had not only not gained Menshikov Finland but had given Finland to Charles Frederick. However, Menshikov did see some ways to take advantage of Charles Frederick's new occupation and intended to use them to their fullest extent. Regarding the rest of the treaty, Menshikov had much to be proud of and made sure that Empress Catherine in her waning days felt the same way. Among the Holsteiners, Charles Frederick was perhaps the least excited man to ever be named a king while Charles Augustus was extremely happy to find out that the Russians had even deemed worthy of being granted land. In Charles Frederick's case, the lack of excitement mainly came from the fact that his quest for Schleswig had been cut short and now he was expected to venture back east rather than toward his restored home of Holstein [19].
In this manner, Empress Catherine's War finally came to a conclusive end. The war had begun on February 11th, 1727 when Spanish soldiers started a siege against British-held Gibraltar. However, for months this war remained nothing but an Anglo-Spanish conflict until May 23rd of 1727. On that day, the Royal Navy fleet of John Norris engaged the Russian fleet of Fyodor Apraksin in what turned a Baltic blunder. Over the course of the next month, both Great Britain and Russia escalated this naval battle in a full-blown war by calling up their respective allies from the Treaty of Hanover and the Treaty of Vienna. However, importantly, the Kingdom of Prussia chose against fighting on Britain's side and instead joined the Russo-Austro-Spanish alliance. In the first year of the war, the Viennese Alliance won a number of battles both small and large, which handed them the initiative and they never let go. In the second year of the war, the Viennese Alliance struck the Hanoverians hard and devastated them at Munster, Bassignana, Kymmendalen, and more. These powerful blows shattered the already weak will of the Hanoverian Alliance and made peace an imminent prospect. The first country to quit the war was actually the one to start it, Spain. The Kingdom of Spain quit in glorious fashion as the Treaty of Madrid restored to them Gibraltar, Sardinia, and a northern Italian domain. Over the course of the winter that followed, the illness of Empress Catherine, for whom the war is named, cut back the aggression of Alexander Menshikov and prompted peace talks. These talks spearheaded by Osterman ended rather speedily, in just three months, due to the growing pressure caused by Catherine's worsening health and Britain and France's weakening willpower. Ultimately, the Treaty of Vienna put an end to Empress Catherine's War and greatly changed the balance of Northern European politics while also interestingly tying almost all of Europe's powers together in a guarantee of Maria Theresa's rights to the Hapsburg Realm [20].
[1] Mikhail is Russia's most prestigious military commander besides Menshikov (even if Peter Lacy is the best military commander) so his joining the Supreme Privy Council is not too surprising, especially with his victories in Finland. However, he does not actually do anything on the privy council in this update due to him being in Finland.
[2] Vasily Lukich Dolgorukov has been a top Russian diplomat for years who served under Peter the Great. He's an important figure in Russian politics and OTL was the one to defeat Menshikov, which is why he is able to maneuver so successfully.
[3] Vasily Vladimirovich Dolgorukov OTL soon got the title of Field Marshal anyways, so Vasily Lukich is just speeding this process up slightly.
[4] Pavel Yaguzhinsky was a pupil of Peter and OTL was a big rival of Menshikov. However, during this time he got stuck in Poland which limited his ability to combat Menshikov heavily.
[5] Despite Menshikov's powerful position, he and everyone else can always end up in Siberia and he knows it. Menshikov is a cocky guy but his confidence is ebbing during this succession crisis. Once the succession is resolved and done with then Menshikov's high-level of confidence will return.
[6] Holy Roman Emperor has not made peace yet because Austria needs Russia. This war has proven to Austria the strength of Russia and the ability of Russia to project that strength into Germany. Although Austria does have to be a little bit concerned about Russian power in the Baltic, the threat of Prussia and Bavaria is more immediate and more clear to Austria. For this reason, Austria wants to cooperate with Russia and retain it as an ally.
[7] During this time period, Frederick William and George II had a deep, personal distrust and acrimony which caused numerous problems for attempted British-Prussian friendship.
[8] This agreement is important. OTL, Austria and Russia actually agreed to put a Portuguese candidate on the throne at first. Only after a bit did they decide to support Augustus III. An earlier acceptance of Augustus III as "the candidate" can go a long way.
[9] Bavaria and Cologne don't ask for much. Neither has much to gain from Brunswick-Luneburg but they have a lot to gain from the Holy Roman Emperor. They expect that these rewards will come later in the form of more bishoprics and the Southern Netherlands.
[10] Charles Augustus is being granted land to keep him away from St. Petersburg. If only Charles Frederick gets land then Charles Augustus and his wife-claimant to the Russian throne might stay in St. Petersburg. To avoid that, Menshikov wants Charles Augustus to be tied down to some land in the west.
[11] Menshikov OTL gained a lot of Mazeppa's land after the Battle of Poltava. However, Menshikov's corruption was found out by Peter the Great and much of his estates were taken away. Of course, Menshikov gained many of them back but he is still a greedy man wanting more. Finland is more in this case.
[12] Fleury joined this war for the purpose of curbing Hapsburg power. However, due to Russian strength, which Fleury did not foresee, the goal of curbing Austrian power is unattainable in Fleury's eyes. Rather than fight on Fleury wants to get out and reset.
[13] Osterman doesn't actually change all the items of the treaty as Menshikov recommends. This is because Osterman is a tough diplomat who thinks he is one of the best (he is), so he wants to prove it constantly and wants to push through this hard treaty on the enemy.
[14] OTL Tolstoy also wanted Elizabeth to succeed Catherine. OTL Elizabeth was unmarried due to Augustus' death. In this case, Augustus is alive. However, since Augustus is a wildcard but Frederick is a competent, trained politician, Tolstoy is more willing to risk Augustus in power than Frederick.
[15] Charles Frederick spent some years under Charles XII, lost everything, came to Russia, managed to get a marriage to one of Peter's daughters, and now has Catherine fighting to get him his home back. Charles Frederick is an ambitious danger to Tolstoy's interests.
[16] OTL when Catherine died there was a concern that Golitsyn and his army of 60000 men would march on the capital and arrest Menshikov. Golitsyn didn't do this obviously but many observers held their breathes because they thought it had a reasonable probability of occurring.
[17] To be clear, both Osterman and the Hanoverian negotiators think they can do better. However, under this sort of time pressure and not wanting any more war this is the best they can come up.
[18] Tag for the Treaty of Madrid and its terms.
[19] Charles Frederick has yearned so long for his home, all of it including Schleswig. However, now Charles Frederick will not have Schleswig and won't even be able to spend as much time in Holstein as he would want.
[20] Here is a brief overview of the war.
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Sorry I fell into one of those time tunnels like Samurai Jack. I swear where I was in time and space that it was totally Friday when I posted this update. For some reason, however, in your timeline this is actually a Sunday. Weird, right?
The aftermath of the war and other post-war issues will be discussed in more detail in the following updates. For example, the Russian succession, Young Griff's imprisonment, Parliamentary antics, etc.
The aftermath of the war and other post-war issues will be discussed in more detail in the following updates. For example, the Russian succession, Young Griff's imprisonment, Parliamentary antics, etc.
Peter’s modernization of Russia is one of the popular cliches. By the end of his reign Russia was on a brink of economic collapse and, in a long term, his methods of “modernization” proved to be catastrophic both because they were based on combination of “state knows better” paradigm and slave-based production. This being said, by the time in question nobody was planning to roll things back. It is just tha “industrial might” was not understood in the modern terms. Russian metallurgy kept growing but, except for the military sector, it was considered more profitable by the owners to sell peg iron to Britain rather then to go into the full scale production of the goods. Taking into an account that perception did not change substantially until Witte, it would be unrealistic to expect that the people of the early XVIII start espousing much more modern ideas. In a slightly moderated fashion Peter’s course did continue in OTL but manufacturing sector remained relatively weak and unable to stand up to the foreign competition.
On that I dare to disagree: no matter who was on the top, the direction was pretty much defined. Even Golitsins and Dolgoruki whom you consider conservative were not advocating getting back to the old times (if anything, some of the members of these families were among the best educated and most exposed to the “West” people). It was mostly a question of who exactly would have an access to the state-granted benefits: mining concessions, grants of the lands (with the serfs), profitable contracts with the state, etc. and in that context Menshikov was not more “progressive” than his opponents.
The fundamental problem was in the fact that Peter created a model which was not easy to break. In OTL, some aspects of it had been gradually abolished (state’s minutiae control over manufacturing, mandatory live long military service for nobility, etc.) but fundamental framework, serfdom, remained intact. When CII “tested the water”, she found that not only nobility was adamantly against its abolishing but the merchant class wanted the right to have serfs considering them a better alternative to the hired workers.
I know emancipation of the serfs will be a hard sell and it’s not going to happen. Still, there should be plenty of reason for Britain not to buy from Russia and the Habsburgers and Prussians afaik (do correct me if I’m wrong) won’t buy the same amounts.
Perhaps that’s enough incentive? Do you truly need ASBs to set Russia on a course that creates an industry that is build for finished goods? Something that creates an upward cycle of profit from factories inspiring other factories, creating a need for more trained personnel etc etc instead of the inertia of OTL?
Perhaps that’s enough incentive? Do you truly need ASBs to set Russia on a course that creates an industry that is build for finished goods? Something that creates an upward cycle of profit from factories inspiring other factories, creating a need for more trained personnel etc etc instead of the inertia of OTL?
17: Treaty of Vienna
Andrey Osterman, the stateman behind the Treaty of Vienna
Alexander Menshikov returned to St. Petersburg from the Schleswig front on January 21st, 1729. Despite the brevity of Menshikov's absence, the Russia which Menshikov came home to was quite different from the one he had left. Without his powerful figure close at hand, the enemies of Menshikov had managed to gain a foot in the door to real power in Russia. The Golitsyn family had turned the military success of Mikhail Mikhailovich Golitsyn into absolute triumphs in Empress Catherine's eyes. Prince Dmitry Mikhailovich Golitsyn had so vividly and vibrantly described Mikhail's victories that Catherine had felt it necessary to name Mikhail to the Supreme Privy Council of Russia [1]. This promotion turned the already heroic and honorable Mikhail from a celebrated person in Russian affairs to a potential leader in Russian politics, which essentially created a foil to the personage of Menshikov. Additionally, the allies of the Golityns, the Dolgorukovs had risen back to the top. After months of carousing the Empress, Vasily Lukich Dolgorukov had managed to convince Catherine of his indispensability to the functioning of the Russian state and earned himself a place on the Supreme Privy Council [2]. Using this new position, Vasily Lukich secured the title of Field Marshal for his kinsman Vasily Vladimirovich Dolgorukov [3]. Overall, Menshikov's enemies gained two council positions and now constituted half of Russia's field marshals. The only saving grace was that Menshikov's personal enemy, Pavel Yaguzhinsky was still far away in Poland struggling to manage the Sejm's politics [4].
Confronted with strengthened enemies, the reason for Menshikov's return was all the more worrying. Once again, the Empress, Catherine, had fallen ill and provoked concern for her well-being. Menshikov had left Schleswig with the hope that he might return once he defeated any of his rivals' plans to take advantage of Catherine's weak health and mental state. However, now that Menshikov was home he first saw just how dangerously powerful his opponents had grown and next witnessed that Catherine was not merely ill but perhaps nearing her demise. Under these conditions, Menshikov understood that there was no place for him on the front; instead, Menshikov needed to be in St. Petersburg, the center of all the empire's intrigues and plots. In the capital, Menshikov could personally oversee the transition of monarchs upon Catherine's death and ensure that no matter who replaced Catherine on the throne that he remained the man behind the throne. Otherwise, the all-powerful Menshikov might, in fact, end up being the latest political exile in Siberia.
Since Menshikov was no longer going to fight Empress Catherine's War allowing Russia to fight in the war any longer immediately became less worthwhile to Russia's first man. No longer was it possible for the Generalissimo to add to his personal. Instead, only his rivals, the Duke of Holstein and Mikhail Golitsyn, stood to gain glory from a continued war. Furthermore, without the triumph of victories, what did Menshikov's Russia stand to win from more combat. Already, Russia's war effort had achieved its primary objectives as laid out Empress Catherine when she proclaimed that "she would destroy Hanover and crush Britain and all its allies". Hanover had been conquered, Britain had been trounced at Kymmendalen, Sweden and Denmark had both been pummeled. The only war goal that Russia had not accomplished was the reconquest of Schleswig. However, the Russians had already liberated Holstein for Charles Frederick, which certainly was enough for Russia to feel that it had honored her alliance with the German duke. All in all, there was no reason for Russia to fight on and so Menshikov decided that Russia would not.
Typically in this age, despite fighting wars alongside allies countries would quit wars without them. Indeed, Spain had done just this in 1728 with the Treaty of Madrid and Russia had previously done the same in 1721 with the Treaty of Nystad. However, to end Empress Catherine's War Menshikov did not feel that the typical approach was appropriate. Although Russia could certainly secure an honorable exit to the war with a separate treaty that was not Menshikov's concern. Throughout Russia's history, foreign powers have consistently intervened in Russian politics. Since Catherine was expected to die soon Menshikov desired to avoid provoking the ire of either the Holy Roman Emperor or the King in Prussia. If either monarch had reason to harm Menshikov then their agents might interfere with the delicate process of a Russian succession, which might be in the key factor in Menshikov ending the year of 1729 in a Siberian cabin. Rather than risk that fate, Menshikov sent Osterman on a mission to Vienna to confide with the Emperor and Prussia's diplomats so that all three powers could make peace as one [5].
Considering the might and influence which the title of Holy Roman Emperor still held in 1729, Osterman came to Vienna prepared and expecting to make a number of concessions to Emperor Charles VI in order to create a set of peace terms which both the Emperor and Menshikov were happy with. Despite Osterman's expectations, Charles VI asked for little at all. Even though the Hapsburg armies had won the great victory of Bassignana and a political victory of Bellheim Charles asked for no land for his realm. Instead, all Charles VI saw fit to suggest to Osterman was that each signatory of the final peace treaty also guaranteed the succession of Charles' daughter, Maria Theresa, to the Habsburg family's territories. Additonally, Austria would accept the terms of the Treaty of Madrid, including Don Carlos' rights to Tuscany, so long as Spain too agreed to guaranteed Maria Theresa's succession. Besides this pragmatic sanction, the only thing Charles asked for was that the Maritime Power's restrictions of the Ostend Company were lowered. Overall, neither of these terms was particularly difficult to accomplish which made Osterman wonder why the Holy Roman Emperor had not made peace already [6].
After discovering and acceding to the desires of the Holy Roman Emperor, Osterman needed to handle Prussia's interests. For this purpose, Osterman and the Hapsburgs approached Prussia together as both were concerned by the steady rise of the Prussian state. King Frederick William I's diplomats conveyed to the Imperial powers that Prussia wanted both Swedish Pomerania and the Electorate of Brunswick-Luneburg as the price for its army's efforts. The first request was necessary for Prussia's expansion and the second request was meant to humiliate Frederick William's personal rival, King George II of Great Britain [7]. Russia and the Hapsburgs readily agreed that Pomerania was Prussia's by right of conquest but flatly rejected the idea that Prussia should gain a piece of Brunswick-Luneburg let alone all of it. The next several weeks saw Prussia slowly convince both the Imperial powers to at the very least grant the County of Danneberg to Prussia.
Regarding the other German allies, the Holy Roman Emperor sought to offer each of them a just reward for their services. The smallest member of the Viennese Alliance, the Principality of Brunswick-Wolfenbuttel was to be greatly expanded by the annexation of the Principality of Calenberg. However, part of Calenburg, the Principality of Grubenhagen, would be split off and given to the Elector of Saxony, Augustus the Strong, in recognition of Saxony's contribution. The main prize of Saxony though was that the Holy Roman Emperor and Osterman agreed to support the candidature of Frederick Augustus, Augustus the Strong's son, to the Polish throne upon his father's death [8]. Another son of Augustus II also stood to gain from this peace. Since Menshikov was eager to keep the young, excellent general Maurice out of St. Petersburg he designed for Maurice to become the Duke of Courland in his own right so long as he married Anna Ivanovna. Although Augustus, a famed lover, was reluctant to force his illegitimate son into a marriage he supported Menshikov's scheme as it meant that Maurice would be a ruler and that Courland would retain some connection to Poland-Lithuania. The Duchy of Mecklenburg-Schwerin would be augmented by the Duchy of Lauenburg. Lastly, the Wittelsbach electors of Bavaria and Cologne were awarded with the election of the Prince-Archbishop of Cologne to the Prince-Bishopric of Osnabruck [9].
For Russia herself, Menshikov had the following items in mind. First, Menshikov had to please the pride of Empress Catherine, by demanding that the King of Great Britain formally apologize for the illegal attack upon Admiral Apraksin's fleet in the Baltic. Second, Menshikov sought to appeal to Catherine's love for her daughters, Anna and Elizabeth, and her son-in-laws, Charles Frederick and Charles Augustus, by securing them German lands. Charles Frederick would have Holstein and Schleswig restored in their entirety to him by Denmark-Norway, and Charles Augustus would gain the Duchies of Bremen and Verden from the Electorate of Brunswick-Luneburg [10]. Third, Sweden would cede Finland to Russia. This last item was for Menshikov himself as he intended to turn Finland into his own private estate [11].
Having collected all the peace terms of the Viennese Alliance, Osterman delivered these terms to the British and French ambassadors in Vienna. From Vienna, both ambassadors sent the proposed peace home and waited for further instruction. In London, the reaction to Osterman's peace was outrage. Robert Walpole immediately attacked Spencer Compton for coordinating so horrid of a war effort that these terms were even considered within reach by Britain's enemies. Despite the scathing reviews Compton received from Walpole and the opposition, he did not break under the pressure and was able to determine for himself that such a treaty went too far. For Compton, his main points of contention were allowing the Ostend Company breathing space, which would damn Compton receiving any support from the merchants, and complete butchering of Brunswick-Luneburg, which would damn Compton in the King George's eyes. Across the Channel, in Paris, the reaction was strikingly different. Cardinal Fleury was desperate for an exit from the miserable war as he did not foresee a way to defeat the Hapsburgs so long as Russia could put an army in Germany [12]. Behind France's premier, King Louis XV also had lost his fervor for war after the defeat at Bellheim. Despite France's wish for peace, Fleury agreed with Compton to refuse the Viennese Alliance's terms. Even if the Franco-British alliance had failed to perform in this war Fleury was not yet ready to abandon the alliance.
The refusal of the first peace offer of the Viennese Alliance was to be expected as very few wars ended without an extended negotiation. Once Osterman relayed Britain and France's answer to Menshikov, the Russian strongman quickly began to trim down his term sheet. Firstly, Menshikov instructed Osterman to remove the demand for Schleswig since Russian arms had not actually conquered it. Next, Menshikov decided that a British apology was not necessary because Menshikov was already appeasing Catherine by giving both of her daughters' husbands land. Lastly, Menshikov offered that it might be a good idea to convince the Hapsburgs to drop the Ostend Company from the treaty or the Prussians to drop the annexation of Dannenberg. Either revision would make the treaty more acceptable to the British Parliament. However, when Osterman approached the Hanoverian Alliance again after having dropped both Schleswig and the Ostend Company from his demands, he was again rejected [13].
The reason for the second rejection by the Hanoverian Alliance was that they begin to sense the possibility of chaos in Russia upon Empress Catherine's death. In spite of the fact that Menshikov was still Russia's first man, France's agents in St. Petersburg had taken note of the growing strength of Menshikov's opposition. As mentioned earlier, in Menshikov's absence the conservative Golitsyns and Dolgorukovs had rerisen to a challenging position. More significant, however, was the emergence of a Holstein party in St. Petersburg. Thus far Menshikov had seemed predisposed toward the idea of Tsarevitch Alexei's son, Peter, succeeding Catherine. This provoked anxiety in Peter Tolstoy, the man who was responsible for capturing Tsarevitch Alexei and bringing him to Peter the Great to be killed. Rather than chance that the young Peter would forgive Tolstoy for this crime, Tolstoy decided to lot against the succession of Peter Alexeyevich. The main candidate which Tolstoy wanted to raise to the throne was Catherine's second daughter, Elizabeth [14]. Other members of the court of St. Petersburg supported the idea of circumventing Peter Alexeyevich's rise and Menshikov's continued but they believed that Catherine's first daughter, Anne, should succeed to the throne. The source of disagreement over which daughter to support was not due to the merits of either daughter but rather the merits of their husbands. Elizabeth's husband, Charles Augustus, was an almost completely unknown character to the Russian nobles, which presented a number of risks should he become the emperor-consort. However, Tolstoy deemed those risks acceptable since Anne's husband, Charles Frederick, was known not just be competent but to be ambitious and formidable, which meant that Tolstoy might be replacing one devil with another [15]. Of course, in an unclear succession alternative candidates are to be expected. The reason that these alternative candidates were concerning to Menshikov and interesting to the Hanoverian Alliance was that the Holsteiners were currently at the head of a Russian army in Schleswig alongside Peter Lacy and Maurice of Saxony. Thus there was potential for both the Holsteiners to lead the Schleswig army and for Mikhail Golitsyn to lead the Finland army against Menshikov in a succession struggle upon Empress Catherine's death [16]. So long as the Hanoverian Alliance could envision this future, they could negotiate for more favorable terms. However, Menshikov also saw this possibility.
The way in which Menshikov decided to approach this possibility to command both the Russian army in Schleswig and the Russian army in Finland to position themselves aggressively and to launch some spring raids against the enemy. In doing so, Menshikov sought to both distract the armies of the Holsteiners and Golitsyns as well as to reapply the pressure of war upon the Hanoverians. Soon enough both Peter Lacy and Mikhail Golitsyn complied with their orders and sent out war parties against their Scandinavian opponents. In neither case were these raids militarily significant. However, they did successfully remind Britain and France of the state of the war: Russia was winning. Additionally, Menshikov had arranged for Charles Frederick to be personally in charge of the Schleswig raids, which made Britain and France less confident about the strength of Russia's Holstein party. In St. Petersburg, the Holstein party was indeed weaker than the British or French imagined, however, the main factor behind this weakness was their lack of consensus over which daughter and thus husband to choose. Still, Menshikov was antsy to have peace before the Holsteiners could actually organize themselves.
In light of this situation, Osterman pressed the British and French for peace again. This time the British and French were more delicate in their response even if the response remained negative. As Osterman attempted move negotiations forward the British and French began to delay and dawdle in hopes that they could prolong negotiations long enough for Catherine to actually die so that they could actually see how Russia's succession played out. However, the man whom Britain and France's diplomats were contending with was one of Europe's premier statesmen so he caught on these delaying tactics rather quickly. Considering that Menshikov was urging Osterman to wrap up the peace process and that Osterman himself wished to be in Russia for the succession, Osterman only had one card left to play: an ultimatum. Consequently, just as Osterman had done at Nystad, Osterman delivered an ultimatum to the British and French diplomats that they must accept the Viennese Alliances now or war would be had for at least another year if not more.
Upon being presented with the ultimatum, the British and French both panicked just as Osterman had hoped. Lacking the time to contact their respective leaders of state, the negotiators needed to make a peace and needed to make it right away; however, the negotiators felt that if they accepted the terms as they stood that the peace treaty would be rejected once it went west. In that case, the war would continue, a war which the Hanoverian Alliance lacked the military power and political will to win. Over the course of the night, the negotiators loudly argued and traded barbs over what sort of peace they accept. By midnight, the negotiators had agreed to ask that Prussia not receive Dannenberg, however, Brunswick-Luneburg would forfeit the rest of the demanded territories. The question of Finland hung heavy over the negotiators. The negotiators were smart enough to realize that a cession of Finland to Russia would effectively cede Sweden as well since the Russian Navy could easily descend from Helsingfors upon Stockholm. This capability would mean that Sweden would be helpless against Russian aggression and thus would be forced to become subservient to Russian interests. However, the negotiators were also smart enough to realize that Russia fervently desired Southern Finland as a buffer for St. Petersburg. Ultimately, around 4 a.m. the French had suggested to and convinced the British of the idea of separating Finland from Sweden and giving it to the House of Holstein-Gottorp. In this fashion, Britain and France could create a buffer for both Sweden and Russia. Through these two counterproposals, Britain and France's negotiators hoped that they would not anger Osterman but also avoid the wrath of their rulers at home.
When Osterman was presented with Britain and France's acceptance of every term save for Dannenberg and Finland, he was presented with a choice. Either Osterman could back down from his ultimatum to continue negotiations, which would dangerously damage his credibility and prolong his stay in Vienna, or Osterman could take the peace offer as it stood and risk putting himself at odds with Menshikov over his failure to secure Finland. Ultimately, Osterman felt that he could better serve his own interests in St. Petersburg than in Vienna, so Osterman accepted the counterproposal [17]. The document which the British and French negotiators and Osterman signed on April 18th, 1729 was designated the Treaty of Vienna. The treaty's terms are as follows. Every signor of the treaty will accept and guarantee the Pragmatic Sanction of 1713, should any state try to violate this sanction each guarantor will come to the aid of the Hapsburgs. The Holy Roman Emperor nominates the Prince-Archbishop of Cologne to the vacant Prince-Archbishopric of Osnabruck. The Kingdom of Sweden will cede its Pomeranian possessions in its entirety, including Rugen, to the Elector of Brandenburg. The Electorate of Brunswick-Luneburg will forfeit the Principality of Calenberg to the Prince of Brunswick-Wolfenbuttel, the Principality of Grubenhagen to the Elector of Saxony, the Duchy of Lauenburg to the Duke of Mecklenburg-Schwerin, and the Duchies of Bremen and Verden to the Prince of Eutin. The Kingdom of Denmark relinquishes all claims to the Duchy of Holstein and returns it in its entirety to the Duke of Holstein-Gottorp. The Duke of Holstein-Gottorp relinquishes all claims to the Duchy of Schleswig. The Kingdom of Sweden frees Finland as the Kingdom of Finland. The Duke of Holstein-Gottorp is recognized as the King of Finland. The King of Great Britain and the British Parliament will issue an apology to Empress Catherine for the misdeeds of Admiral Norris in the Baltic. All prisoners are to be exchanged and all occupied land not mentioned in these terms is to be returned to its initial owner. Lastly, the Kingdom of Spain is invited to sign this treaty. If Spain does so then the Holy Roman Emperor will accept the Treaty of Madrid in its entirety [18].
When the treaty did arrive in London, Compton felt that its best that he could have accomplished. Although the treaty marked a definite defeat for Britain she had avoided the complete cession of Brunswick-Luneburg and protections of a rival trading company. The Parliament demonstrated its agreement with Compton's assessment by ratifying it quickly after it was put before them. This ratification, of course, was accompanied by another series of attacks upon Compton by Walpole, however, these ones were almost half-hearted as Walpole also yearned for Britain to be at peace. In France, the feeling of resignation toward defeat led to quick acceptance of the treaty. The Duke of Savoy having lost Bassignana and much of his land afterward giddily accepted a treaty that required nothing from him but a promise to the Holy Roman Emperor. The Scandinavian members of the Hanoverian Alliance were less excited. In Denmark-Norway, General Reventlow felt that he might be able to retake Holstein or at least parts of it. Meanwhile, in Sweden, they hung on to the fact that not all of Finland had actually been conquered. However, with both Britain and France pressing down upon them, the Scandinavian kingdoms acceded to the peace treaty. Thus the Hanoverian Alliance agreed to the Treaty of Vienna.
Among the members of the Viennese Alliance, there were also some ranged reactions to the final treaty. The Holy Roman Emperor was saddened to see that his diplomats and Osterman could not work the Ostend Company into the treaty. However, the acceptance of the Pragmatic Sanction was a significant victory in Emperor Charles VI's eyes, which made the whole war worth it. The Elector of Bavaria, Charles Albert, and his brother, the Prince-Archbishop of Cologne, Clemens August, accepted the treaty because they expected further rewards to come from Charles down the line. King Augustus II was content with what the treaty included in its written terms but mainly accepted the treaty due to the secret agreement with the Hapsburgs and Russia that accompanied that treaty. The minor German princes were all more than happy to see their small efforts rewarded with great prizes. The only German prince who was disappointed was the King in Prussia. Actually, King Frederick William felt betrayed since Osterman had failed to inform Prussia that Dannenberg was being removed from the treaty. Unfortunately, with everyone else leaving the war Prussia did not feel that fighting on alone was advisable.
Finally, in Russia and among its high circles, the treaty was also received in a mixed fashion. Obviously, Menshikov was irritated by the fact that Osterman had not only not gained Menshikov Finland but had given Finland to Charles Frederick. However, Menshikov did see some ways to take advantage of Charles Frederick's new occupation and intended to use them to their fullest extent. Regarding the rest of the treaty, Menshikov had much to be proud of and made sure that Empress Catherine in her waning days felt the same way. Among the Holsteiners, Charles Frederick was perhaps the least excited man to ever be named a king while Charles Augustus was extremely happy to find out that the Russians had even deemed worthy of being granted land. In Charles Frederick's case, the lack of excitement mainly came from the fact that his quest for Schleswig had been cut short and now he was expected to venture back east rather than toward his restored home of Holstein [19].
In this manner, Empress Catherine's War finally came to a conclusive end. The war had begun on February 11th, 1727 when Spanish soldiers started a siege against British-held Gibraltar. However, for months this war remained nothing but an Anglo-Spanish conflict until May 23rd of 1727. On that day, the Royal Navy fleet of John Norris engaged the Russian fleet of Fyodor Apraksin in what turned a Baltic blunder. Over the course of the next month, both Great Britain and Russia escalated this naval battle in a full-blown war by calling up their respective allies from the Treaty of Hanover and the Treaty of Vienna. However, importantly, the Kingdom of Prussia chose against fighting on Britain's side and instead joined the Russo-Austro-Spanish alliance. In the first year of the war, the Viennese Alliance won a number of battles both small and large, which handed them the initiative and they never let go. In the second year of the war, the Viennese Alliance struck the Hanoverians hard and devastated them at Munster, Bassignana, Kymmendalen, and more. These powerful blows shattered the already weak will of the Hanoverian Alliance and made peace an imminent prospect. The first country to quit the war was actually the one to start it, Spain. The Kingdom of Spain quit in glorious fashion as the Treaty of Madrid restored to them Gibraltar, Sardinia, and a northern Italian domain. Over the course of the winter that followed, the illness of Empress Catherine, for whom the war is named, cut back the aggression of Alexander Menshikov and prompted peace talks. These talks spearheaded by Osterman ended rather speedily, in just three months, due to the growing pressure caused by Catherine's worsening health and Britain and France's weakening willpower. Ultimately, the Treaty of Vienna put an end to Empress Catherine's War and greatly changed the balance of Northern European politics while also interestingly tying almost all of Europe's powers together in a guarantee of Maria Theresa's rights to the Hapsburg Realm [20].
[1] Mikhail is Russia's most prestigious military commander besides Menshikov (even if Peter Lacy is the best military commander) so his joining the Supreme Privy Council is not too surprising, especially with his victories in Finland. However, he does not actually do anything on the privy council in this update due to him being in Finland.
[2] Vasily Lukich Dolgorukov has been a top Russian diplomat for years who served under Peter the Great. He's an important figure in Russian politics and OTL was the one to defeat Menshikov, which is why he is able to maneuver so successfully.
[3] Vasily Vladimirovich Dolgorukov OTL soon got the title of Field Marshal anyways, so Vasily Lukich is just speeding this process up slightly.
[4] Pavel Yaguzhinsky was a pupil of Peter and OTL was a big rival of Menshikov. However, during this time he got stuck in Poland which limited his ability to combat Menshikov heavily.
[5] Despite Menshikov's powerful position, he and everyone else can always end up in Siberia and he knows it. Menshikov is a cocky guy but his confidence is ebbing during this succession crisis. Once the succession is resolved and done with then Menshikov's high-level of confidence will return.
[6] Holy Roman Emperor has not made peace yet because Austria needs Russia. This war has proven to Austria the strength of Russia and the ability of Russia to project that strength into Germany. Although Austria does have to be a little bit concerned about Russian power in the Baltic, the threat of Prussia and Bavaria is more immediate and more clear to Austria. For this reason, Austria wants to cooperate with Russia and retain it as an ally.
[7] During this time period, Frederick William and George II had a deep, personal distrust and acrimony which caused numerous problems for attempted British-Prussian friendship.
[8] This agreement is important. OTL, Austria and Russia actually agreed to put a Portuguese candidate on the throne at first. Only after a bit did they decide to support Augustus III. An earlier acceptance of Augustus III as "the candidate" can go a long way.
[9] Bavaria and Cologne don't ask for much. Neither has much to gain from Brunswick-Luneburg but they have a lot to gain from the Holy Roman Emperor. They expect that these rewards will come later in the form of more bishoprics and the Southern Netherlands.
[10] Charles Augustus is being granted land to keep him away from St. Petersburg. If only Charles Frederick gets land then Charles Augustus and his wife-claimant to the Russian throne might stay in St. Petersburg. To avoid that, Menshikov wants Charles Augustus to be tied down to some land in the west.
[11] Menshikov OTL gained a lot of Mazeppa's land after the Battle of Poltava. However, Menshikov's corruption was found out by Peter the Great and much of his estates were taken away. Of course, Menshikov gained many of them back but he is still a greedy man wanting more. Finland is more in this case.
[12] Fleury joined this war for the purpose of curbing Hapsburg power. However, due to Russian strength, which Fleury did not foresee, the goal of curbing Austrian power is unattainable in Fleury's eyes. Rather than fight on Fleury wants to get out and reset.
[13] Osterman doesn't actually change all the items of the treaty as Menshikov recommends. This is because Osterman is a tough diplomat who thinks he is one of the best (he is), so he wants to prove it constantly and wants to push through this hard treaty on the enemy.
[14] OTL Tolstoy also wanted Elizabeth to succeed Catherine. OTL Elizabeth was unmarried due to Augustus' death. In this case, Augustus is alive. However, since Augustus is a wildcard but Frederick is a competent, trained politician, Tolstoy is more willing to risk Augustus in power than Frederick.
[15] Charles Frederick spent some years under Charles XII, lost everything, came to Russia, managed to get a marriage to one of Peter's daughters, and now has Catherine fighting to get him his home back. Charles Frederick is an ambitious danger to Tolstoy's interests.
[16] OTL when Catherine died there was a concern that Golitsyn and his army of 60000 men would march on the capital and arrest Menshikov. Golitsyn didn't do this obviously but many observers held their breathes because they thought it had a reasonable probability of occurring.
[17] To be clear, both Osterman and the Hanoverian negotiators think they can do better. However, under this sort of time pressure and not wanting any more war this is the best they can come up.
[18] Tag for the Treaty of Madrid and its terms.
[19] Charles Frederick has yearned so long for his home, all of it including Schleswig. However, now Charles Frederick will not have Schleswig and won't even be able to spend as much time in Holstein as he would want.
[20] Here is a brief overview of the war.
Word Count: 5019
Thanks for the update. Interesting, as always.
So, basically, for Russia this ends up being “a cabinet war”: a lot of efforts and no gain for the state except for the glory. Probably, there would be a noticeable amount of grumbling at least about “giving away” Finland and both Menshikov and Osterman would be blamed. Taking into an account that in your TL the Golitsins and Dolgoruki are more powerful by the end of CI reign than they were in OTL, the peace may end up as the bad news for the Duke of Ingria even if, as he did in OTL, he supports Peter Alexeevich.
To think about it, in OTL Menshikov’s obvious problem was his quite open intention to be a single power behind the throne (which, among other things, meant unlimited ability to self enrichment at the expense of both the state and the private people). Personal arrogance was icing on the cake and kind of expected from a favorite but clearly added to the picture. However, it does not look like his power was, at any point, unlimited. He managed to send Tolstoy and Devier to the exile and Yaguzinsky away but Golitsins and Dolgoruki remained powerful.
I wonder what would happen if during the reign of CI he tried to approach the old powerful families and establish alliance with at least one of them instead of betting upon a rather risky schema of marrying PII to one of his daughters (how about marriage with Ivan Dolgoruki?). Sharing power may be a recipie to a political survival. While Dolgoruki may held some grudge over Tsarevich Alexis affair (even then, Menshikov was not directly involved in arrest of Vasily Vladimirovich) there was no, AFAIK, open conflict with the Golitsins.
I meant more in general, across time it depends on who leads Russia. Right now, in 1729 Russia has far too many other concerns to even engage in proto-industrialism.
Yeah, this is will be the main focus on the Russian war aftermath.
Britain was interested in buying Russian grain, iron, timber, hemp, flax and other natural products. As I understand, on some of the items Russia had close to monopolistic position all the way to mid-XIX. Neither Hapsburgs nor Prussians were the big buyers and none of them was a major importer to Russia. Later in the XVIII France became the main importer of the luxury goods but it was not buying too much from Russia (at the time of CII France, unlike Britain, had a positive trade balance with Russia).
Well, you do not need ASBs to change situation but serfdom was a very serious issue aggravated by the fact that the monarchs of the XVIII tended to award their loyal servants with the grants of land with the peasants who initially were “state peasants”. As a result, pool of the potential industrial workforce had been shrinking. Of course, government could issue a legislation making it more attractive for the owners to allow their serfs to work on “obrok” (in this context, to become hired workers who are paying their owners certain amounts of money out of their salary) but as long as Britain remained a major consumer of the Russian agricultural products the estate owners may not consider this enough of incentive.
Second part of the equation was foreign competition. Manufactures created during the reign of PI were failing because of the low quality and high cost of their products. What government could do is to opt for a protectionism. In OTL, between Peace of Tilsit and 1812 manufacturing in Russia grew quite significantly (in 1804 - 2399 factories with 95.2k workers, by 1814 - 3731 with 179.6k; unfortunately, I don't have 1812 data). In later times, Witte jumpstarted Russian industrialization by introducing the high import tariffs thus forcing the foreign investments (both money and technology) into the Russian economy.
I like “proto” part.
Peter’s “industrialization” was pretty much concentrated on serving the military needs thus costing state a lot of money while producing close to nothing in the terms of the consumer goods. Surely, this was not a normal economic model.
By the end of his reign maintenance of army and navy consumed something like 80% of state income, this not counting the unofficial extortions caused by placing the troops in private houses with obligation of the owners to feed the “guests” and right if the officers to extort additional money from the municipalities. All that still left an army underfunded to which Menshikov and military clique had been complaining (during the reign of CI he got an upper hand and the system continued). So, you are right, there were numerous issues to address staring from rolling back Peter’s system of taxation.
Plus, there was an ongoing problem with Peter’s acquisition of the Persian territory: troops garrisoned there had been dying from the bad climate so this was a big drain both on human and economic resources. The problem was that, with a general turmoil in Persia, it was unclear to whom this acquisition could be returned until Nadir Shah came to power.
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I wonder how will be the course of Spain after this war, they certainly regained great part of the lost confidence, but also had some errors to work on.
And with nearly everyone accepting the Pragmatic Sanction, it is no War of the Austrian Succession? We still have Frederick maybe-to-be the Great rising to power in Prussia, the war may have some impact in the relationship between he and his father, and this can be important on the future. France seems to have learned that Russia's power is to be feared, wondering what they'll do to counter this, but i'm certain that the french will not involve themselves in the polish succesion ITTL
In general, great update and eagerly waiting for more
And with nearly everyone accepting the Pragmatic Sanction, it is no War of the Austrian Succession? We still have Frederick maybe-to-be the Great rising to power in Prussia, the war may have some impact in the relationship between he and his father, and this can be important on the future. France seems to have learned that Russia's power is to be feared, wondering what they'll do to counter this, but i'm certain that the french will not involve themselves in the polish succesion ITTL
In general, great update and eagerly waiting for more
I wonder how will be the course of Spain after this war, they certainly regained great part of the lost confidence, but also had some errors to work on.
And with nearly everyone accepting the Pragmatic Sanction, it is no War of the Austrian Succession? We still have Frederick maybe-to-be the Great rising to power in Prussia, the war may have some impact in the relationship between he and his father, and this can be important on the future. France seems to have learned that Russia's power is to be feared, wondering what they'll do to counter this, but i'm certain that the french will not involve themselves in the polish succesion ITTL
In general, great update and eagerly waiting for more
In OTL France (not immediately but soon enough) tried to improve relations with Russia. The “master plan” was to help Cesarevna Elizabeth to come to power (time of Ivan VI, regency of Anna Leopoldovna) on condition that Russia would return some of the earlier conquests to Sweden. The coup had been successful but (a) Swedes were opposite to victorious in a war and (b) when Elizabeth became an Empress her interests predictably changed. Still, relations with France remained good disregarding the scandal with the French ambassador (Russian deciphering service already was quite good and Elizabeth did not like unflattering descriptions of herself). However, this happened well after the War of Polish Succession and we can only guess how @Archduke is going to deal with this specific issue (hopefully, the TL will keep going).
The issue is interesting. As in OTL, Russia and Austria are supporting Saxon candidate but what would be position of Spain (in OTL sided with France but in this TL there is no obvious reason for doing so). France still wants Lorraine and Savoy may still want expansion in Italy. France may have some fear of the Russians but they are far away (in OTL their auxiliary corps marched all the way to the Rhine but too late for taking an action.
As for the Pragmatic Sanction, in OTL it proved not to be worthy of a paper on which it was written so why would this piece of paper be more binding on this TL? Prince Eugene told an emperor that the money he spent on pushing 5hrough the Pragmatic Sanction would be much better used on maintaining an army of 140K.
However, let’s not forget that Maurice de Saxe is now the Duke of Courland and it is extremely unlikely that he ends up on the French service. While this would make only a marginal effect on the WoPS (in OTL he served under the Duke of Berwick), his absence on the French side in WoAS should make a noticeable negative effect on the French performance. Also, if after CI there is a short reign of PII followed by the dynastic crisis and election of Anna, then he is a prince consort of the Russian Empress by the time of WoPS (and Biron is not a favorite). Situation in Russia becomes very different from OTL.
As a rather wild but possible extension of this scenario, after the death of Anne he may marry Elizabeth. Say, he is unhappy with perspective of being pushed aside by Brunswick line, sides with Elizabeth, becomes her lover and after Anne’s death marries her (marriage convenient for both sides) after which the coup is even lesser problem than in OTL. He would not be hated as much as Biron and he should be quite popular both among the military and the women (and Elizabeth was not exactly a blushing virgin).