Balkans Wars POD needing help regarding Feasibility for a timeline

Paul MacQ

Donor
This is a request for Help regarding Feasibility for a timeline

Balkans war (1912) Pod Difference for a delay in starting the Great War

Point of Difference I am looking at is First Balkans war and the Fragile Balkans League. Especially the Greeks pulling out at last minute after getting some nasty information ( False or real not sure yet ) regarding intentions of the Bulgarians after the conflict. The Ottomans being able to get naval reinforcements from Asia, that had been stopped by the Greeks navy. The league falling apart as a result of the Strife and finger pointing from the conflict.

Objectives

1 Ottomans doing better and getting some more respect and getting as close as possible to Antebellum after conflict.

2 Nations especially getting a bloody nose Serbia and Bulgaria, Resulting in Serbia looking inward and less expansionist for a while, ( can actually see the Leadership in AH empire smiling ) And Bulgaria having to make some hard choices.

3 I want Tensions between the Main powers reduced for a while.

4 Main powers (Germany Austro-Hungary Russia France and Britain having observers) not sure what lessons they would be able to bring back home, But some use of Barb wire and Trenches defended By MGs and how they can stop even determined assaults. Possibly taking back different lessons and opinions (not necessarily the correct lessons)

5 A Victorious Ottoman Empire that through a series of Pyrrhic Victories won by wearing down it’s enemies in a War won by who broke first instead of stunning Offensives. Ottomans want to stay out of War and need time to rebuild,

6 Setting the stage for the flow on effects and a Great War starting in August 1917

7 Rampant Naval Building (Who does not want to see more Battleships built)

Things I am aware of is the Rapid growth in Russia that is a worry for the German

The powers in Europe seeing there is still life left in the Ottoman Empire.

Europe is still a powder keg ready to go off, just too many issues to be resolved without conflict,

Some Good politics by the Ottomans playing Britain and Germany off against each other, This is to get both involved in rebuilding infrastructure of the Empire and both wanting to gain influence.

Feedback please. Would this be enough to cause flow on changes allowing me to delay the start of the Great War to such a late date.
 
If you have the Ottomans use an intelligent war plan, then you don't need to have the Greeks drop out - although that is a neat solution, as the islands would be a problem.

If the Ottomans had won, you most certainly would not have had WWI, at least not at that time. The Ottomans were expected to win, so I don't think expectations would change too much.

I think that the Powers would not take many lessons from this conflict, viewing it as slapfest between primitive forces.

The Ottomans were caught in the middle of a massive restructure of the military, which involved a huge purge of older officers that had risen through the ranks instead of gone to officer training. That eventually led to the very capable WWI military, but left the army temporarily dangerously vulnerable.

The Ottomans had just switched to the triangular division (three regiments, no brigades), and officers and men weren't yet familiar with the new structure and no time for maneuvers.

A victorious Balkan War will actually leave the Ottomans as the foremost army in Europe in doctrine and experience if there's no war in 1914 (!). Oddly, the Ottomans learned from the war, the Bulgarians and Serbs did not.
 

Paul MacQ

Donor
Thank you Abdul for Fast reply to this post and information in Personal Message.

There are 2 Reasons I want the Greeks getting cold feet 1 is the Naval situation and making reinforcements from Anatolia possible sooner. The other is for Britain to see the conflict in a slightly different light. As far as I can work out with the reading I have done the British seemed to have looked protectively on the Greeks at this stage

I do not see any problem stacking the cards in the Ottomans favour so as per recommendation looking at and quote from Abdul “A POD would be a visit by German advisor von der Goltz who was highly respected by and listened to by the Ottoman General Staff. “ as being part of the equation.To vastly improve there Strategic and Tactical planning

I do not want the Ottomans to gain much more ground as I do not see it being politically sound. The Ottomans coming across as a sort of Gracious Victor might payoff off as they get seen more as the victim of aggression.
 

Paul MacQ

Donor
Right now finally getting back to the Situation in the Balkans.

PoD Field Marshal Colmar von der Goltz Lately Retired from Active service in the German Army 1911 is asked to go back to the Ottoman Empire as part of a German lead Commission .The Field Marshal he had served for 12 Years as an advisor and was much respected he had been Given Title of Mushir (Field Marshal) before leaving the Empire in 1896

The request for von der Goltz Retired was in response to the Growing tensions with the Balkan states and simply asked to review at first the Defensive positions and dispositions of the Ottoman defences in Rumelia.

To understand the standing of this prolific Writer and Military expert that will play such an important role in TTL a run down of his experience after leaving the Ottoman Empire in 1896 were he was already well respected.

1896- 1898 Commander of the 5h Infantry Division
1898-1900 Head Inspector of Engineer and Pioneer Corps and inspector of fortifications
1900-1902 Unknown
1902-1907 Commander of 1st Army Corps
1907 Inspector General of the newly created 6th Army
Retires from Active Service Mid 1911
(OTL would become an advisor and Combat commander in Ottoman Empire after period in 1914-1915 as Military Governor of occupied Belgium)

With some sense urgency von der Goltz arrives in Istanbul Oct 29th 1911 one Month after the start of the Italo-Turkish war being fought in Libya.

As expected with an active front and a nation involved in Fighting Frustrated by the inability of reinforcing of Libya due to the Naval Dominance of the Italian Navy von der Goltz has his hands fill Directing attentions to what would be the reason for him coming,

One of the early things noted by von der Goltz was the lack of information regards possible Dispositions of what Ottoman troops would face in the Balkans at this early stage it was not even noted how closely the Balkan League was to agreements.

Several organizational changes were half way through Implementation the Ottomans Armies had been changing Divisional Structure and Command in these new organisations was not as yet sorted.

At the behest of von der Goltz a experiment was done to see how fast one Corp of the Army could be raised from Peacetime standing to Full mobilization as expected by von der Goltz the Hierarchy of the Ottoman Army was shocked as they realised the Best expectations were so very wide off the mark.

The Weapons and Logistics of the Ottoman army could only be improved with Time and money, at this stage amount of time before the Army was needed was unknown, and more money was hardly possible with the state of the Ottoman economy.

Doing what he could with the resources at hand von der Goltz requests and gets aid from home of 70 Officers and 60 Senior NCOs’ to help with retraining and streamlining of the Ottoman Army Mostly at the Command and Staff level first. But you can only do so much in a year.

Now how to find out what these small upstart nations might be up too. Now time for the Good Field Marshal to visit the state of Ottoman Fortifications in the Uniform of an Ottoman Mushir.

( thanks again to Abul for introduction to von der Goltz )
 

Paul MacQ

Donor
One of the Situations that has been on my mind regarding the Naval situation for the Balkans War is The Naval Balance between Greece and the Ottomans seemed to have come down to one Ship namely The Georgios Averof ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_cruiser_Georgios_Averof )

This vessel was a Major Pain to the Ottomans OTL what Armoured Cruisers are around that The Ottomans might be able to Purchas to redress this temporary imbalance till the Turks get there later Ordered Dreadnaughts ?

I gather something like a Purchas of ships like the relatively modern SMS Blucher ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SMS_Blücher ) is out of the question.

I am looking for 1 ship the approximate equal of Georgios Averof or 2 lesser ships capable of causing her grief that the Ottomans could get fast enough to effect a naval redress. One of sticking points is how to deliver a ship to the Ottomans with war still going on in Libya with the Italians
?
 

Paul MacQ

Donor
I think I found the ships I was wanting. and I know not Armourd Cruisers like original thinking

After the Purchas of the Armoured Cruiser Georgios Averof that arrived in Greece September 1, 1911 The Ottomans had major concerns regarding this Vessel and worried that it's timeframe for the Purchas of Dreadnaughts would leave them Vulnerable for too long, After commission were sent out regarding possible replacements. The Prospects of Getting the ships Reshadiye and Mahmud Resad V(2)

With limited time and Money and some good diplomacy asking how the British could upset the Balance of power in the Western Med. Negotiations start with the prospect of the purchase of Ships.

With the premise that navy commissions where also in Germany and the U.S looking at vessels and wanting to not loss faith with there old ally, Negotiations continue. After only 2 Months of Negotiation 2 vessels are decided on, these being the British Battleships of the Swiftsure Class. Negotiations happen between December 1911 and January 12

For a cost of £2,200,000 just slightly less than the British Navy had bought these 2 vessels to stop at the time bad situation of Russians buying them Dec 1903, After giving The Royal navy good service, the 2 vessels Leave for Alexandria under British Flags for later delivery. Too overly rushed together crews from the Ottoman navy, These vessels arrive in Alexandra March 1st 1912 and the 2 Vessels Carrying there new untrained crews March 15th,

The rush to get Crews to these ships will cause a few red faces as the Mahmud Resad V. ( Ex Swiftsure ) is towed in by its Sister Sultan Osman I.( Ex Truimph ) due to Boiler problems from inexperience . As steep learning curve is ahead of the crews.
Ships arrive Istanbul 20th April.

All parties other than the Greeks and Italian happy as these vessels now pose a threat to Italian operations in Libya and the planning of operations by the Greeks. These 2 vessels suddenly change the Naval Balance in the Balkans. The British have been seen as coming through for there old Friends. And the Greeks now furious and scared as they Ottomans have just leaped ahead in the Naval race with them. Close relations with the Royal Navy will continue for the Ottoman Navy Balanced by the even Closer Relationship the Ottoman Army and the Germans.

Oddly enough 2 ships Ordered for a South American nation of Chile and cancelled after financial restraints. These 2 ships had caused the British some problems as not designed from start for the British navy yet Finished with as much British standard equipment as possible after being laid down. With a main Armament of 2x2 10” guns and powerful secondary armament of 7.5” far from standard armament of British Pre-Dreadnaughts Faster and Lighter armed than the rest of British Vessels, would suddenly find them selves causing Political problems.

The British navy now having money to spend on other projects like cruisers using British standard weapons and design

( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swiftsure_class_battleship )


OTL the agreement to purchase the of the Sultan Osman I did not happen till Jan 1914 This timeline the Ottomans will be still ordering the Reshadiye with the Prospect of a later order for sister ship Mahmud Resad V. That was cancelled OTL when the purchase of Sultan Osman I happened That never got delivered, Instead she is getting 2 odd ball British Pre-Dreadnaughts at a time much more useful to her.
 
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The Ottoman general staff was actually very well trained, it was just overstretched. The lack of NCOs in the army was a big problem, and not easily fixed due to illiteracy and lack of schools. That's a long-term fix, and the effect was that officers had to do a lot of NCO-type work, leading to high casualty rates.

The triangular divisional structure and the cadre system for raising troop levels in mobilization (as opposed to forming reserve divisions) was largely a result of officer shortages.

The Ottoman officer corps in this time was young and very aggressive. Too aggressive, being infected by the doctrine of offense but also overestimating the military capabilities of the empire. For instance, at Sarakamish, an envelopment operation was attempted with inferior numbers of troops (and it almost worked!)

The Germans helped in WWI by providing some relief with additional staff officers.

Where I think a man like vdG can make a large difference is in guiding the creation of a realistic war plan, which would call for holding out defensively in the Balkans until the bulk of Anatolian manpower could be mobilized and transported.

Your mobilization exercise would underscore the necessity for doing this, as the problem is not easily fixable in the short-term, except in Thrace and Western Asia Minor (in WWI, the elite III Corps was the only one that mobilized on schedule - this is the corps that defended Gallipoli).

The insoluble problem with mobilization is transportation - so a plan needs to take into account slower mobilization. Naval forces to defend sea transport in the Aegean would help some, but for the most part troops are just going to have to travel to the Sea of Marmara and cross there.
 

Paul MacQ

Donor
Ok will start using "vdG"

Yes have to agree with the assessments about aggression of the Ottomans regarding the Battles I have seen.

"vdG" Going off to inspect the Defences Especially in there currant state and disposition of Troops and getting realistic estimates of Numbers Current and on Mobilization, taking into account of Times taken to Mobilize he is the sort to take into account Terrain and different regions will take amount of time to Mobilize.

The Depth of Detail this man can bring and the would be useful

I am looking at winding down the Libya situation early and having those experienced Troops back home by end of July. After someback room deals on the sale of the Battle Ships and Ottomans regarding it as a lost cause earlier, Would like reply from some of the Naval Buffs if the sale of these 2 ships sound reasonable. British are wanting Peace in the Balkans.

The threat of 2 old battleships is going to be 1 of 3 causes of keeping the Greeks out. ( them thinking the Bulgarians going to backstab them being another)

With no Greek intervention The options for Strategic mobility especially regarding getting reinforcement to Distant Albanan coast possible

One example of use of defensive terrain in the Balkans being Siege of Shkoder 5000 Ottoman Troops and 10,000 Albanian Volunteers holding off for almost 6 months against 45-55,000 Troops with massively greater loses to the Montenegrin’s and Serbians.

This being an example of what they could do and the Perfect example of what you mentioned being battle of Kumanovo Attacking an enemy with greatly superior numbers , A dig in and strong Defence was most certainly needed and a basically throwing away an Army. Half the size of the enemy yet with a slight advantage in guns and enough MG’s to make a strong defence.

The Vardar army being a good example of only half man power being Mobilized by the time of the fighting.
 
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Doing what he could with the resources at hand von der Goltz requests and gets aid from home of 70 Officers and 60 Senior NCOs’ to help with retraining and streamlining of the Ottoman Army Mostly at the Command and Staff level first.

Could there be a possibility of maybe some A-H officers becoming involved? It would seem to be in the best interest of A-H to have a more
healthy Ottoman Empire in the Balkans. It would give the Serbs someone other than the A-H for them to hate and shoot at.
 

Paul MacQ

Donor
Doing what he could with the resources at hand von der Goltz requests and gets aid from home of 70 Officers and 60 Senior NCOs’ to help with retraining and streamlining of the Ottoman Army Mostly at the Command and Staff level first.

Could there be a possibility of maybe some A-H officers becoming involved? It would seem to be in the best interest of A-H to have a more
healthy Ottoman Empire in the Balkans. It would give the Serbs someone other than the A-H for them to hate and shoot at.

Yes well the A-H officers being involved Directly hmm Probably not, But I do have plans for the A-H to be giving some back door support of the " I can nether confirm nor deny " sort, That will piss of the Serbs. and the Serbs in short order will becoming to hate the Ottomans so much more than the A-H in the not so distant future
 
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