Balkans Campaign after an Anglo-German peace?

Phyrx

Banned
So let's say Dunkirk is a disaster for the Allies, and the UK makes peace with Germany. Italy still invades Greece in late 1940, with the same reasons and results as in OTL. In January, Greece asks for assistance from the Brits. Since they're at peace, Britain can provide everything Greece asked for IOTL. But will they, considering their situation? I'm really not sure. If they do, I assume Germany will want to send troops down right away, and my bet would be on German victory. But - what's happening with Yugoslavia? Are we still gonna see a coup? On one hand, the UK officially dropped out of the war, but by March '41, they're de facto at war again with the Axis in Greece.

Of course, if Britain doesn't help Greece, I guess they're screwed, and presumably Yugoslavia survives intact. Though I could be completely ignorant on some factor. Or forgetting something, which I kind of feel like I am. Anyway, interested in your thoughts.
 

Cook

Banned
Italy still invades Greece in late 1940, with the same reasons...
Nope, you’ll need different reasons, or at least justifications; Italy went to war at least partially because of claims by the Italian governor of the Dodecanese, De Vecchi, that the Greeks were allowing British shipping to use Greek waters. The real reason is that Ciano and De Vecchi wanted to plunder Greece and Mussolini didn’t need much convincing.

With Britain out of the war mid-1940 the situation in the Balkans is going to change enormously. The balance of power in Europe has shifted decisively towards Berlin and everyone is going to adjust themselves accordingly. Metaxas was already very pro-German, and many senior Nazis, Gobbles for example, were very pro-Greek, some kind of accommodation is likely there. Even before there is any threat from Italy, the Greek government is likely to develop a closer relationship with Germany. With no possibility of external aid, which if Britain made peace there wouldn’t be, Metaxas would fight if attacked, but would appeal to Hitler to mediate the dispute, and would probably be forced to accept territorial losses for the war to be resolved.

There is a great deal of uncertainty about just how much involvement the British secret intelligence service actually had in the Yugoslav coup. If they were the main engineers of the coup, then peace would mean that there would not be a coup. If they were not in principals involved in the coup but were instead opportunists providing assistance to a Yugoslav conspiracy, which given that the first thing the Coup leaders did was send a message to Berlin assuring the Germans of their loyalty, you still have a coup, but no change in Yugoslav foreign policy and no German invasion.
 
With a post-dunkirk peace Benny will try to extend his influence in the balkans.
Greece was very influenced by the fact that Mussolini wanted to show that Italy was independent by Germany and don't need to consult with his allies for make conquest (just like Adolf done), so in a so different situation Rome will use more diplomatic pressure and posturing and make less draconian demands to Athens. In case of war, well now Italy can use all her resource against Greece, so after the Greeks counteroffensive (if this happen, with more italian airplane on the front and with Regia Marina in control of the sea thing are more dire for the defenders) Benny pull all what he can for defeat Greece and frankly even if it will be costly for the italian the end result was never in doubt.
But in all likely the true objective of any italian expansion is Yugoslavia, Mussolini will try hard to convince Hitler to let him invade the nations if bullying them on make concession will not work.
 

Phyrx

Banned
Nope, you’ll need different reasons, or at least justifications; Italy went to war at least partially because of claims by the Italian governor of the Dodecanese, De Vecchi, that the Greeks were allowing British shipping to use Greek waters. The real reason is that Ciano and De Vecchi wanted to plunder Greece and Mussolini didn’t need much convincing.

With Britain out of the war mid-1940 the situation in the Balkans is going to change enormously. The balance of power in Europe has shifted decisively towards Berlin and everyone is going to adjust themselves accordingly. Metaxas was already very pro-German, and many senior Nazis, Gobbles for example, were very pro-Greek, some kind of accommodation is likely there. Even before there is any threat from Italy, the Greek government is likely to develop a closer relationship with Germany. With no possibility of external aid, which if Britain made peace there wouldn’t be, Metaxas would fight if attacked, but would appeal to Hitler to mediate the dispute, and would probably be forced to accept territorial losses for the war to be resolved.

There is a great deal of uncertainty about just how much involvement the British secret intelligence service actually had in the Yugoslav coup. If they were the main engineers of the coup, then peace would mean that there would not be a coup. If they were not in principals involved in the coup but were instead opportunists providing assistance to a Yugoslav conspiracy, which given that the first thing the Coup leaders did was send a message to Berlin assuring the Germans of their loyalty, you still have a coup, but no change in Yugoslav foreign policy and no German invasion.
Hmm, my impression was that Italy mostly invaded Greece just 'cause Mussolini was jealous of Hitler and he wanted to build an empire too. Basically what lukedalton said.

But you don't think Britain would help Greece, even if Italy invaded? Do you think they'd intervene in Iraq or Iran? Or would they really just be throwing in the towel completely?

Yeah, my thoughts were running more along what lukedalton's saying, but I'm obviously by no means an expert, and I'm happy to have more insight. Thanks!
 

Sir

Banned
I would assume Germany and Britain would end up at war again very quickly. Not much changes in the timeline. Africa would broadly be the same, and I don't think Britain can maintain a foothold in Greece. It looks really bad if Hitler doesn't help his ally against a hated foe.

But the pause in the war has one very important result: Stalin freaks out. He was waiting for the truce that never came OTL to get serious about the Nazis. In this timeline, Operation Barbarossa is going to be a unpleasant shock for the German army.
 
I would assume Germany and Britain would end up at war again very quickly. Not much changes in the timeline. Africa would broadly be the same, and I don't think Britain can maintain a foothold in Greece. It looks really bad if Hitler doesn't help his ally against a hated foe.

But the pause in the war has one very important result: Stalin freaks out. He was waiting for the truce that never came OTL to get serious about the Nazis. In this timeline, Operation Barbarossa is going to be a unpleasant shock for the German army.

I actually think the opposite might happen; The POD in this case takes place after Stalin's devastating officer purges, and the quality of his officer corps will still be very low. I doubt that this POD will cause him to control his army more competently either, simply cause him to concentrate more on the west. He might actually line up more bowling pins to be knocked over.
 

rohala

Banned
Let's accept the Anglo-German peace, but the big question is if there's a state of war between Britain and Italy. I don't think Italy would be interested to fight a war with Britain without Germany. Also note that Britain had guaranteed Greek independence, and an attack against Greece was an act of war against Britain.

Without Britain, Greece is lost against Italy, if only beacuse the Italians are completely in cotrol of the seas. They can land everywhere they want, and they will also choke the Greek forces from supplies. Greek war production was dependent on imports of certain materials, and its capacity equalled barely half (more like a third) of the war requirements. Except for the first months, the Greek army would need to reduce its ammunition consumption significantly.

With British aid, mainly in the form of supplies arriving by sea and the RN keeping the sea routes open for transport, Greece can sustain herself well against the hapless Italians in Albania. This topic has been discussed again I believe and I expressed the opionion that Albania made a poor base for operations for the Italians, not to mention that the Italian land forces were of poor quality. If Germany made clear that the Italians are left to their fate, most probably Italy would have to bail out from Albania, or face annihilation by a joint Greek Yugolsav offensive. The idea that time was working for the Italians is wrong, as Greece was becoming increasingly betetr integrated in a network of assistance from Britain and USA, and had the war not ended in April 1941, Greece would have had available significant quantities of new equipment to put into service for the summer 1941 campaign season.
 
There is a great deal of uncertainty about just how much involvement the British secret intelligence service actually had in the Yugoslav coup. If they were the main engineers of the coup, then peace would mean that there would not be a coup. If they were not in principals involved in the coup but were instead opportunists providing assistance to a Yugoslav conspiracy, which given that the first thing the Coup leaders did was send a message to Berlin assuring the Germans of their loyalty, you still have a coup, but no change in Yugoslav foreign policy and no German invasion.

The coup was basically already brewing at the time the British got involved. The internal reforms within Yugoslavia (namely, Belgrade caving and giving the Croats their own, unified, territorial unit with some autonomy) was seen as the first step to a full federalization of the Kingdom, something that the conservative and Serb nationalist elements didn't agree with.

The coup still occurring is quite likely (though it's success is likely to be questionable without British aid), though it's also possible for the participants to back down, uncertain of success. If it does occur and Germany doesn't intervene, Yugoslavia would roll back it's internal reforms and remain in the German sphere. Of course, given Italian pretensions on Dalmatia, as well as Hungarian and, possibly, even Bulgarian pretensions, it's entirely possible that Berlin might just invade anyway and dismember Yugoslavia similar to OTL.
 

Cook

Banned
But you don't think Britain would help Greece, even if Italy invaded? Do you think they'd intervene in Iraq or Iran? Or would they really just be throwing in the towel completely?

The loss of the BEF would most likely have resulted in the fall of the Churchill premiership and his replacement by someone else later in 1940, if not Halifax or Lloyd-George then someone of a similar vein. That being the case it would be recognising that Britain had traditionally stood apart from Europe and that it should revert to the days prior to the Entente Cordiale which had brought Britain so much suffering in two World Wars, back to when the Empire existed in Splendid Isolation. Difficult people with dangerous ideas who didn’t see the necessity of looking to the interests of the British Empire first such as Churchill and Eden wouldn’t have a say in such circumstances. In that situation, with Britain still suffering from the shock of losing the entire British regular army and with years of rebuilding to go before they could feel reasonably confident that they would not be invaded at any moment, only a madman would propose going to war again, especially to aid a dictatorship hardly distinguishable from the one attacking it; reasonable men would point out that it was meddling in the affairs of Central Europe to aid a nationalist dictatorship against a Fascist Dictatorship was what had got Britain and France into trouble in the first place.

The British had considered offering Malta to Mussolini in exchange for continued Italian neutrality at the start of 1940 and had lost British Somaliland to the Italians in August 1940. If Britain made Peace with Germany in September 1940 as Lloyd-George had proposed, then it is likely that Malta would be given up to the Italians.

Britain would look to securing the empire, which would be facing significant internal uprisings and would still be threatened in the Far East by the growing belligerence of Japan; they’d use every effort to supress the Iraqi rebellion and, having made peace with Britain, the Germans wouldn’t be inclined to stir up trouble, at least not directly.
 
If there is peace between the British and Germans, then there is a general peace between Germany, Italy, France, Britain, Norway, Netherlands, Belgium, etc. The entire war is different. In fact, the war is over. Until Germany invades the USSR, there is no WWII and historians might consider that an entirely separate war.

In such situation, Italy probably gains something in the peace negotiations. If Italy is not given a portion of France's colonial empire (or even if Italy does get a bit), then there is probably some agreement among the great powers that Italy can do whatever it likes in the Balkans or at least agreement on certain demands the Italians will make.

In other words, I doubt very much Britain will involve itself in any war against Italy. If Britain does so, it upends the very peace settlement it just signed.

Of course, there may not even be a war. Mussolini decided on a whim to attack Greece because he was upset that Italy had not gained anything from the armistice with France, and that Germany told Italy to not do anything in the Balkans, but then sent troops into Romania anyway. He invaded Greece to give Italy a quick victory and hand them something.

In this scenario, it is unlikely the same situation exists. Italy will have gained something in the greater peace so his pride is assuaged. And depending on what Germany is doing to prepare Barbarossa, Hitler may even give Mussolini some indication what he plans and therefore Mussolini won't get upset over some Balkan intrigues. In any case, he has very little reason to invade some country out of spite.

In terms of Germany invading the Soviet Union. It is hard to say. Stalin really gave Hitler the benefit of the doubt. If Hitler comes up with some kind of plausible explanation why he isn't demobilizing, Stalin could still fool himself.

Even if he doesn't and knows an invasion will happen, Germany will stay do well initially. Germans may not get complete surprise and go up against some initial solid defense lines, the Red Army is still recovering from the purges. Stalin will still make the same kind of stupid mistakes he did initially. The Germans should still make some solid progress before winter sets in.

Of course, it's obvious that the USSR won't collapse just like IOTL, but this time the Soviet Union is alone. There are no other fronts for Germany to contend with. There is no British blockade. Germany has the cooperation of most of Europe, but none of the costs of occupation. The US won't pass Lend Lease to help the USSR alone. And if things get bad on the front, Germany can probably con Europe to send volunteers to the SS at minimum, or perhaps get them to declare war on the USSR to destroy Bolshevism. In such a scenario, it's possible a very favorable peace can be negotiated by Germany giving them most of what they want.
 
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