Balkans and Yugoslavia in a post CP victory?

[No_Names_Left321]

I’ve been pondering on whether or not a United Serbo-Montegrian state would be possible in a late CP victory. This expanded into how the Balkans as a whole would look. Typical late war victory scenario, US never joins, Russia folds, Spring offensive succeeds, BEF is badly depleted, if not destroyed, allied troops from the Macedonian front are transported to France to prevent a breakthrough, but France requests an armistice anyway. British launch an offensive into the Middle East but without an eastern or western front, there’s only the Macedonian, Italian and Mesopotamian/Sinai front. Ottomans under pressure but Germans free to send troops to these fronts and thus Italy folds, Pro allied king in Greece under public pressure to fold and Middle Eastern Front wouldn’t be able to hold once the Germans mass troops (logistical nightmare so most likely a stalemate) so the British fold as well. War is over by September/October 1918 let’s say. The Bulgarians would receive most of Serbia and the Austrians would annex the Montenegrin coast, but they wouldn’t want the Serbians and Montenegrins to unite into a single state, as they are we weakened internally from the war. There were talks of occupying or annexing Novi Pazar but I doubt the Austrians would want to annex any Serbian land. I’ve heard Germany wanted a united Serbian state but I don’t know any sources to back this up. Of course, this would be bad for the Austrians, as it could inspire Bosnians and Croats to join, but Austria was dependent on Germany, so who would win in the end? Any discussion and input is greatly appreciated

 

[Halagaz]

Germany did want an united Serbian-Montenegrin state (to which they also planned to annex northern Albania). After 1916, they also managed to get some Austrian figures to accept this plan, and it also had the Ottomans' approval...and yeah, Germany is the senior partner in the alliance. While Austria is increasingly dependent on Germany as the war drags on.

So the end result is most likely what Berlin had in mind: a weirdly shaped, medium-sized Serbia covering Montenegro and north Albania but losing tons of land to Bulgaria.

If Austria survives, there is no question of a "proper" Yugoslavia being formed. Those lands stay under Vienna's shadow. Serbia is a German-Austrian puppet - but mostly German.

If Austria crumbles shortly after the war...well, there will still be no Yugoslavia. Serbia might get some minor border changes in its favor, but nothing too fancy. The remaining South Slavic lands are given to Hungary, or transformed into a separate kingdom (which would be a German puppet, just like Serbia itself).

 

[CountDVB]

Given how Austria would likely join Germany, lands might be divided between Hungary and Bulgaria, or probably a puppet nation is formed under a German prince with some land fed to Bulgaria

 

[cloistered scholar]

I've always liked the idea of a Bulgarian led Jugoslavia being created in a CP victory scenario. Though instead of being a union of all south slavs, it would be a union of all Orthodox south slavs.

I dont see the survival of the Habsburg empire being very likely if the CP win in late 1918 or 1919. Instead I see Hungary being released, with Croatians being accepted as equals within the nation, unlike all other non German minorities. Call it Hungrocroatia. In this situation, I see its Serbian population aggressively Croatianized, or expelled to alt-Jugoslavia.

 

[No_Names_Left321]

Germany did want an united Serbian-Montenegrin state (to which they also planned to annex northern Albania). After 1916, they also managed to get some Austrian figures to accept this plan, and it also had the Ottomans' approval...and yeah, Germany is the senior partner in the alliance. While Austria is increasingly dependent on Germany as the war drags on.

Interesting, I didn’t know that Berlin was able to convince the ottomans and some Austrians to support it. What are your sources? I would love to read more about it.

 

[AnonymousSauce]

I've always liked the idea of a Bulgarian led Jugoslavia being created in a CP victory scenario. Though instead of being a union of all south slavs, it would be a union of all Orthodox south slavs.

I dont see the survival of the Habsburg empire being very likely if the CP win in late 1918 or 1919. Instead I see Hungary being released, with Croatians being accepted as equals within the nation, unlike all other non German minorities. Call it Hungrocroatia. In this situation, I see its Serbian population aggressively Croatianized, or expelled to alt-Jugoslavia.

So what happens to Bosnia in this situation, annexed by Hungary or Bulgaroslavia, or what?

 

[BigBlueBox]

I've always liked the idea of a Bulgarian led Jugoslavia being created in a CP victory scenario. Though instead of being a union of all south slavs, it would be a union of all Orthodox south slavs.

I dont see the survival of the Habsburg empire being very likely if the CP win in late 1918 or 1919. Instead I see Hungary being released, with Croatians being accepted as equals within the nation, unlike all other non German minorities. Call it Hungrocroatia. In this situation, I see its Serbian population aggressively Croatianized, or expelled to alt-Jugoslavia.

There's pretty much no reason why the Croats would go with Hungary. They either stay with Austria or go their own way. If A-H is falling apart then the fact that Croatia-Slavonia was in Transleithania will be irrelevant, because the Hungarians can't force the Croats to stay.

 

[Max Sinister]

Egon Friedell (who witnessed WW1 and the stupid Austrian politics before it) once suggested: If A-H kept Novipazar, they not only seperated Serbia and Montenegro, but also had the option to expand it all the way to Saloniki, which would have given them a harbor on the Med. What do you think of this idea?

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

Egon Friedell (who witnessed WW1 and the stupid Austrian politics before it) once suggested: If A-H kept Novipazar, they not only seperated Serbia and Montenegro, but also had the option to expand it all the way to Saloniki, which would have given them a harbor on the Med. What do you think of this idea?

Expand all the way to Salonica? Absolutely not. Using their influence to get their desired rail line down to Salonica would be much easier though, assuming of course that the Bulgarians take the lands to the immediate south. IIRC Vienna had quite a lot of political capital in Athens and Sofia.

Although the same could probably be achieved even easier by acting to preserve the Obrenović dynasty.

 

[Halagaz]

Interesting, I didn’t know that Berlin was able to convince the ottomans and some Austrians to support it. What are your sources? I would love to read more about it.

The single best source is probably Austro-Hungarian War Aims in the Balkans by Marvin Fried.