Balkanization of the North America in a CS Victory TL

Anaxagoras

Banned
Did a thread on this about a year ago, but it didn't go anywhere. Rather than pull a thread necro, I figured I try again...

In a CS Victory TL, what is the greatest extent that North America might "balkanize"?

I can see an independent Texas seceding from the Confederacy, especially after oil is discovered. Some have also suggested that New Orleans might try to set itself up as a sort of Creole city-state, though that seems somewhat implausible to me.

An independent Mormon state ("Deseret") is sort of a staple of AH fiction, but is it more plausible in a CS Victory TL than it was IOTL? And what about the idea of a Pacific Republic splitting off from the Union at some point?

Within the United States itself, could postwar political turmoil between Republicans and Democrats see an independent New England or an independent Free City of New York?

Could the American purchase of Alaska be butterflied away, allowing for the existence of a Russian American in a CS Victory TL? And what impact would there be on Canada?

Brainstorm away, AH.commers!
 
I think that the Californians have a lot of gold and very little physical connection to the East. Deseret may have ambitions but it has very few people. If Deseret goes, and if California goes, the fate of New Mexico and Arizona could be interesting. Texas is a wild card, they might go their own way or they might stay and become the financial pillar of a post-boll weevil CSA. Indian/Oklahoma territory likely follows Texas, and the aforementioned AZ/NM *might* join an independent Texas if surrounded by non-US countries. OTL Oregon, Idaho, and Washington might form a Cascadia of sorts, though again population is a limitation.

Most likely if California does not leave then no one else will either. There is no chance of anything east of the Rockies separating unless some other event intervenes.
 

iddt3

Donor
I think that the Californians have a lot of gold and very little physical connection to the East. Deseret may have ambitions but it has very few people. If Deseret goes, and if California goes, the fate of New Mexico and Arizona could be interesting. Texas is a wild card, they might go their own way or they might stay and become the financial pillar of a post-boll weevil CSA. Indian/Oklahoma territory likely follows Texas, and the aforementioned AZ/NM *might* join an independent Texas if surrounded by non-US countries. OTL Oregon, Idaho, and Washington might form a Cascadia of sorts, though again population is a limitation.

Most likely if California does not leave then no one else will either. There is no chance of anything east of the Rockies separating unless some other event intervenes.
Very little connection, aside from their entire economy being organized around exporting Gold to the East and getting Goods and Labor in return. I find further Balkanization in the north unlikely, the Federal Government is going to clamp down hard on anything that smacks of secession post war. The South though...
 

Rush Tarquin

Gone Fishin'
With PODs a dozen or so years before an ACW analogue, I believe you can get an independent Deseret and California without too much effort. If a British vessel has to make a stopover in California during the Mexican-American War just in time for the 'arrival' of the bear flag revolt, the area could become contested. The ACW could cement California as being in the British sphere of influence, or if need be with a British intervention in the ACW (the harder option).

Rejigging the balance of slave states vs free states, there could be an attempt to try to force through Deseret's admission on track to become a free state to maintain the balance of free states vs slave states, but then a roadblock is thrown up over polygamy, the boundaries of the territory, and Brigham Young wanting to be governor. The issue of Deseret's admission might be delayed until after the ACW, at which point admission might not look as attractive as before with a British-sphered California and CS southwest.

With the assumption of US-British hostilities before, during or after the ACW, there are a number of possibilities through proxy conflicts. The US could back the Metis in Assinoboine and the British could back the Sioux. Later, the US might give more backing to the Fenians as well.
 
I think it would be best to start with independent Texas and California before the civil war... at least I've seen timelines that have taken this route and seemed pretty dern good!
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
I think that the Californians have a lot of gold and very little physical connection to the East. Deseret may have ambitions but it has very few people. If Deseret goes, and if California goes, the fate of New Mexico and Arizona could be interesting. Texas is a wild card, they might go their own way or they might stay and become the financial pillar of a post-boll weevil CSA. Indian/Oklahoma territory likely follows Texas, and the aforementioned AZ/NM *might* join an independent Texas if surrounded by non-US countries. OTL Oregon, Idaho, and Washington might form a Cascadia of sorts, though again population is a limitation.

Most likely if California does not leave then no one else will either. There is no chance of anything east of the Rockies separating unless some other event intervenes.

Politics in the 1890s certainly showed an West-East divide, with the success of the Greenback Party in the Western states. The butterflies of a CS victory might increase such regionalism.
 
I think it would be best to start with independent Texas and California before the civil war... at least I've seen timelines that have taken this route and seemed pretty dern good!

If they're independent, then you've probably butterflied away the Civil War.
 
The most likely way? The CSA breaks up into 11 separate countries. After all they set the precedent that if someone doesn't like something they can throw a temper tantrum and leave on a whim! It might even balkanize further after that.
 
Have California not admitted as a state before the civil war or give them an influx of Mexican refugees who have no real loyalty to the American government.

Civil War could stir up some agitation and BOOM we get the mixings of California seccessionist movement larger than in OTL.
 
How in blue blazes do you butterfly away the Civil War with a POD after the Revolution?

There are far more trivial divergences that could avoid the ACW. If Texas and California never join the US, then you don't have the Compromise of 1850, which polarized both sides. At a minimum that's going to delay the ACW by several years and there's a strong chance it never happens.
 
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