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Hi everybody, this is for a TL I'm planning.
Do you think the 2008 Bolivian crisis could have escalated into a civil war between the Evo Morales government and the Media Luna departments, which would eventually look for independence?
I was thinking of a 2006 POD. Inmediately after Morales becomes President, the Camba separatist groups begin to arm themselves, obtaining weapons from Colombian far-right paramilitary groups and smuggling them to Bolivia, via the Brazilian jungle, through Pando, the northernmost deparment of the country. By 2008, the unrest happens with more violence, with many more deaths than in OTL, eventually evolving into a civil war with some factions of the Bolivian Army and Air Force rebelling against the government and supporting the separatists.
Also, how do you think would react the United States and the South American countries to such a war? I can easily see Venezuela militarily backing the Bolivian government, but what about the more moderate countries? Brazil? Anything besides the usual diplomatic call to peace?