Balkanization of Bolivia

Hi everybody, this is for a TL I'm planning.

Do you think the 2008 Bolivian crisis could have escalated into a civil war between the Evo Morales government and the Media Luna departments, which would eventually look for independence?

I was thinking of a 2006 POD. Inmediately after Morales becomes President, the Camba separatist groups begin to arm themselves, obtaining weapons from Colombian far-right paramilitary groups and smuggling them to Bolivia, via the Brazilian jungle, through Pando, the northernmost deparment of the country. By 2008, the unrest happens with more violence, with many more deaths than in OTL, eventually evolving into a civil war with some factions of the Bolivian Army and Air Force rebelling against the government and supporting the separatists.

Also, how do you think would react the United States and the South American countries to such a war? I can easily see Venezuela militarily backing the Bolivian government, but what about the more moderate countries? Brazil? Anything besides the usual diplomatic call to peace?
 

fero

Banned
map help a lot

Bolivian autonomy referendums, 2008

Bolivia_media_luna.png
 
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I don't see any country in the Americas recognizing a separatist nation. OTOH the separatist would be on top of Bolivia's natural gas reserves, so I could see a Brazilian military intervention to stop the civil war and assure the gas continues to flow.
 
I think it could probably be done, albeit it might be necessary to lay some groundwork with an earlier POD. The current world climate has a lot of sympathy for the liberation of minority nations, but Juanml is right: Brazil likes gas almost as much as it dislikes encouraging minority independence. It's got enough of its own.
 
But how would the world react to that Brazilian intromission in a foreign war? Would the UN or another international organization to take measures against Brazil?

Also, since 85% of the gas reserves are in the small department of Tarija, do you think is plausible in this context to see an Brazilian-Argentine (since Tarija borders with Argentina) joint "occupation" force in the department to keep the gas flowing?
 
As said above, no way Brazil would support separatist movements in Bolivia, despite the fact that Brazilian farmers who live in the border provinces are supporters of it. Not only it goes against the traditional lines of our foreign policy to South America, but also it would be strongly opposed by Lula's government. Even during the crisis of 2006, when Evo Morales declared the nationalization of gas and oil fields (which hugely affected Petrobras there) we accepted that in order to not cause a greater problem with our neighbours.
 
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