Baldwin V of Jerusalem
- Thread starter el t
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You don't get Guy of Lusingion as King, which is an enormous improvement. That said the Kingdom is certainly not out of the woods yet.
Raymond of Tripoli would remain as regent, pursuing a truce with Saladin while the Kingdom begged for foreign help/waited for the King to mature. However, asuming Raymond dies on schedule, that will leave the regency of ten year old Baldwin up for grabs. In such circumstances a crisis similar to the one that acompanied the ascention of Guy and Sybille to the throne is likley. Sybille is afterall the boy's mother. She will also likley shape his views, playing a role similar to her own mother in the early reign of Baldwin IV.
Reynald of Chatillon will continue to be a destabalizing force in the Kingdom's politics. His stepson, Humphery of Toron, is one of the realm's most powerful lords, and wed to young Baldwin's aunt Isabelle (OTL Isabelle I). I can see Reynald using him as a puppet for his own ambitions. He is also likley to act as a spoiler in reguard sto Saladin, out of greed if nothing else.
Saladin will keep looking for an excuse to breach the truce. A crisis would be very likely around the OTL time.
The young King's marrige will be dictated by the competing needs to appease his fractious nobility, and secure help from abroad.
Raymond of Tripoli would remain as regent, pursuing a truce with Saladin while the Kingdom begged for foreign help/waited for the King to mature. However, asuming Raymond dies on schedule, that will leave the regency of ten year old Baldwin up for grabs. In such circumstances a crisis similar to the one that acompanied the ascention of Guy and Sybille to the throne is likley. Sybille is afterall the boy's mother. She will also likley shape his views, playing a role similar to her own mother in the early reign of Baldwin IV.
Reynald of Chatillon will continue to be a destabalizing force in the Kingdom's politics. His stepson, Humphery of Toron, is one of the realm's most powerful lords, and wed to young Baldwin's aunt Isabelle (OTL Isabelle I). I can see Reynald using him as a puppet for his own ambitions. He is also likley to act as a spoiler in reguard sto Saladin, out of greed if nothing else.
Saladin will keep looking for an excuse to breach the truce. A crisis would be very likely around the OTL time.
The young King's marrige will be dictated by the competing needs to appease his fractious nobility, and secure help from abroad.
There are two scenarios that would be intresting to explore. One where the situation is not so dire, and the factions of the royal court continue to jockey for power. Or one where Guy of Lusingion manages to achieve a Hatin level fuckup and young Baldwin comes of age during the Third Crusade. Influenced by the outsized personalities of Philip Augustus and Richard the Lionheart.
Count Raymond will probably live longer and may even live to see King Baldwin come of age. Conrad of Montserrat was Baldwin B's uncle and he may arrive and have an influence.
Agreed about Raymond of Tripoli possibly living longer and also on Conrad arriving in Jerusalem and trying to get power as uncle of the King
There is also Count Philip of Flanders. He's one of the closest family members to Baldwin. Philip's mother, Sibylla was the daughter of King Fulk. Philip and his ancestors, in general, were some of the wealthiest and most powerful lords of Europe and made many pilgrimages and took part in the crusades.
He came to Jerusalem and was offered the regency for Baldwin and overall command of the army of Jerusalem. However, he declined and acted as a subordinate to Reynald. The lords of the kingdom also expected him to be the one who would lead the combined crusader/Roman forces into Egypt.
So Philip might just accept the regency under a healthy Baldwin and help strengthen the kingdom despite his reservations.
He came to Jerusalem and was offered the regency for Baldwin and overall command of the army of Jerusalem. However, he declined and acted as a subordinate to Reynald. The lords of the kingdom also expected him to be the one who would lead the combined crusader/Roman forces into Egypt.
So Philip might just accept the regency under a healthy Baldwin and help strengthen the kingdom despite his reservations.
As already stated, the KoJ is still in a tight spot and the sword of Damocles still hangs ominously above it. One fuck up and you would see it go down the same route as IOTL just in a different year. With Saladin ruling both Syria and Egypt the situation still isn't all that great. Perhaps things don’t go badly for the KoJ when the next fight breaks out and they somehow pull off another Montgisard? Or shit hits the fan but a far more successful third crusade comes to their rescue? Hard to say which is more likely.
Take Guy off from his OTL position of power and command and the Latin Kingdom of Jerusalem will NOT fall. Saladin was able to conquer it ONLY because Guy of Lusignan was a total idiot, unable to understand who a open field battle was a pure folly
Maybe not as spectacularly, but things were getting dicey.
Defense of the Kingdom depended on a network of castles. They could harass an advancing Muslim army, forcing them to divert troops to lay siege to them or serve as refuges for the army after a loosing battle. Saladin was moving his army along the border picking off one key castle at a time. The Latin Army lacked the strength to engage him in the field and so was forced to watch as his troops raided the borderlands and picked off strongholds. Remember that Raymond of Tripoli's plan for the 1187 campaign was to allow Tiberias to fall and wait for more help from Europe. Eventually Saladin would have breached the line, and then his army could pour into the Kingdom.
The Latin's main advantage is that Baldwin is young and Saladin is old. They needed to pray really hard that Saladin would die and his lands would split, as they did OTL.
Things were complicated but Jerusalem was far from being condemned... without that battle is likely who the Latin Kingdom of Jerusalem would have lived (and kept the city) much longer
I guess everything depends on the likelihood of the Kingdom resolving its internal conflicts and receiving outside help.