Baldwin dosnt retire in 1937 and thus Britain offers no Polish gurantee

Not as many as those who were prepared to fight, by a long shot.

By 1939 Mosley's a joke, although there are a minority of pro-Germans in high levels - like the Duke of Wellington (forgotten which - might be the 5th?), they don't have much influence. The British people were prepared to negotiate with Hitler up until he took Czechoslovakia. Before then, the majority had believed all Hitler wanted to do was reverse the treaty of Versailles and take back what was rightfully German.

Agreed, there were Nazi sympathizers in the US and France as well but not very many of them. A country with a population the size of any of the Great Powers is going to have its share of wierdos.
 
IMHO, the germans would have a greater chance attacking the USSR in 1940 without war in the west than in OTL. Anyway, a lot would depend (as in OTL) in the initial push. If given time to recover, the soviets can put a long and bloody war, and Hitler must also look at the west which is quickly rearming.
But in general terms, a better chance.
 
With the Right in power in France by 1940 I dont think they would attack Germany but they would re-arm and may even take Southern Belgium.
 
With the Right in power in France by 1940 I dont think they would attack Germany but they would re-arm and may even take Southern Belgium.

There were many changes of government in France in the Thirties, yet in reality many of the government ministers were the same, because of a minority party going from one side of the fence to the other.
French re-armament only occured, because of the threat from Germany. This was recognised by both the 'right' & 'left' in France, why assume that a 'right led' France would be pro-German? If it was occuppied - sure until then no.
Why would France want Belguim, its priority is to safeguard Alsacce-Lorraine - a prime target of the Germans.
Many in the German General Staff were against the Invassion of Russia in '41, even after a successful campaign in France, more will be against it in 1940 without a Battle of France to improve combat efficiency. And without the victory over France, Germany is less likely to brow-beat other countries to join them e.g. Hungary & Roumania.
I doubt if Germany would get as far as Smolensk!
 
Apart of this we should think that in OTL Stalin thought that for Hitler it was better have the Soviet Union as ally and collaborator (the Soviet Union played a great role through sending supplies and raw materials to Germany during the period of 1939-1941 in contributing to the german war effort and neutralizing in great part the politic of blockade used by the Western Allies during the Phoney War, in fact the studies shows that the germans obtained an amount of raw materials and other important goods during this period of colllaboration far superior that the obtained during his sacking of the occupied areas of Soviet Union during 1941-44) because this he considered any report about a possible german invasion of Soviet Union as an exageration or even worse as a possible manouver by a desperate United Kingdom in trying to alienate Soviet-German relations.

In this TTL, it is clear that the primary target of Germany is Soviet Union (no Pact between Germany and Soviet Union) so in TTL is very probable that the soviets are prepared and mobilized when the germans try to invade USSR -in fact it is impossible to hidden such massive preparatives, as was the case of OTL, it was the obsession of Stalin that Hitler could not be so stupid to begin a war in two fronts when he was so benefiting of the goods that Soviet Union sent to Germany and that it was surely a Churchill manouver to alienate the relations with Germany the real fact that made of the reports about concentration of german troops near the borders of USSR plus reports from sources within Germany or from desertors that Germany was preparing a massive assault against the soviets only for Stalin a clear campaign of desinformation from UK or simplily an exageration- so when the germans invade Soviet Union in TTL there will no surprise, they will have to confront an army prepared, mobilized...
 
We'll have to see how much the intital german succes in OTL Barbarrossa was due to surprise and how much to tactical superiority and equipment. In TTL, the soviets would know the germans are coming, but it won't mean they are fully mobilized (it takes time) or their tactics are better than in OTL. As I said, in 1940 their weakness would be greater (recent purges, no T-34). Anyway, if winter comes and Moscow and Leningrad are not taken, the soviets have a chance.
 
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