Recently I noticed some interesting facts involving these Caribbean states--they have a very low population density compared to other Caribbean islands (the Bahamas is one of the least densely populated nations on Earth, for instance), and what population they do have is very unevenly distributed.
The reasons why this is seems to relate to the economy of the islands. Agriculture is not particularly viable in many places due to the generally poor soils, and the salt extraction which has traditionally been an economic focus can only provide so much employment. All of this means that a place like Andros Island, the fifth largest Caribbean island after Cuba, Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Puerto Rico has a population density far less than Iceland, Great Inagua, the seventh largest island, has less than a thousand people, and the rather large Caicos Island outside of Providenciales has barely more than a thousand people. Providenciales, most populated island in the Turks and Caicos, has a population density of over 242/km2. New Providence, most population island of the Bahamas, has a population density of over 1,200 km2.
How can we change this so the islands can have a more reasonable population density? The most obvious idea to me is to have the United States annex them, and the United States was actually in the position to do so during the American Revolution. Both the Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos were under the control of the US's allies, France and Spain, and could easily have been transferred to the United States in the Treaty of Paris. Aside from the American Revolution, there's the possibility of the islands being sold or even conquered (*Central Powers United States set loose against the British Caribbean?). In this scenario, the islands would develop similarly to 20th century Florida. They would rapidly gain population thanks to air conditioning, a cheap cost of living, and tourism spurring development into the islands, although they would lack the easy transit via railroads and the Interstate being islands and all. NASA might be based in the islands, especially a less densely populated island like Andros, Inagua, or Caicos, and that would attract development. If the islands gain statehood as one state (call it the Bahamas, Lucayas, etc.), they might end up with a population of perhaps 1 - 2 million, drawing population and development from Florida. It could be even more, but I don't think it would go much higher than 5 million (at least not until the mid/late 21st century, and by then Global Warming-fueled major hurricanes frequently hitting the area might be a huge issue, and perhaps sea level rise too, but let's ignore that for now). As in OTL Bahamas and Florida, there would be many immigrants from Haiti and Cuba.
But aside from becoming a US territory and state, is there any other way for the islands to gain a much higher and more evenly distributed population? I suppose you could have Canada gain control over the islands, I suppose, and have them become "Canada's Florida", although I think the population would end up a bit less than if they were part of the United States. But is there any chance for this to happen as an independent country or remaining a British possession? Or going back even further, another country's possession?
Overall thoughts on these scenarios, or any ideas here?
The reasons why this is seems to relate to the economy of the islands. Agriculture is not particularly viable in many places due to the generally poor soils, and the salt extraction which has traditionally been an economic focus can only provide so much employment. All of this means that a place like Andros Island, the fifth largest Caribbean island after Cuba, Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Puerto Rico has a population density far less than Iceland, Great Inagua, the seventh largest island, has less than a thousand people, and the rather large Caicos Island outside of Providenciales has barely more than a thousand people. Providenciales, most populated island in the Turks and Caicos, has a population density of over 242/km2. New Providence, most population island of the Bahamas, has a population density of over 1,200 km2.
How can we change this so the islands can have a more reasonable population density? The most obvious idea to me is to have the United States annex them, and the United States was actually in the position to do so during the American Revolution. Both the Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos were under the control of the US's allies, France and Spain, and could easily have been transferred to the United States in the Treaty of Paris. Aside from the American Revolution, there's the possibility of the islands being sold or even conquered (*Central Powers United States set loose against the British Caribbean?). In this scenario, the islands would develop similarly to 20th century Florida. They would rapidly gain population thanks to air conditioning, a cheap cost of living, and tourism spurring development into the islands, although they would lack the easy transit via railroads and the Interstate being islands and all. NASA might be based in the islands, especially a less densely populated island like Andros, Inagua, or Caicos, and that would attract development. If the islands gain statehood as one state (call it the Bahamas, Lucayas, etc.), they might end up with a population of perhaps 1 - 2 million, drawing population and development from Florida. It could be even more, but I don't think it would go much higher than 5 million (at least not until the mid/late 21st century, and by then Global Warming-fueled major hurricanes frequently hitting the area might be a huge issue, and perhaps sea level rise too, but let's ignore that for now). As in OTL Bahamas and Florida, there would be many immigrants from Haiti and Cuba.
But aside from becoming a US territory and state, is there any other way for the islands to gain a much higher and more evenly distributed population? I suppose you could have Canada gain control over the islands, I suppose, and have them become "Canada's Florida", although I think the population would end up a bit less than if they were part of the United States. But is there any chance for this to happen as an independent country or remaining a British possession? Or going back even further, another country's possession?
Overall thoughts on these scenarios, or any ideas here?