Baden does not join the Confederation of the Rhine

In 1803 Charles Frederick became the Elector of Baden.
In 1806 he became the first Grand Duke of Baden.
In 1806 Baden joined the Confederation of the Rhine.
Suppose Baden does not join the Confederation of the Rhine. What happens then?
 
In 1803 Charles Frederick became the Elector of Baden.
In 1806 he became the first Grand Duke of Baden.
In 1806 Baden joined the Confederation of the Rhine.
Suppose Baden does not join the Confederation of the Rhine. What happens then?

Napoleopn depose the Elector and dissolve Baden. Case close.
 
I think that Baden wouldn't be a Grand-Duchy. Because this title was a reward for joining the Confederation of the Rhine. Probably Baden would be a electorate.
Baden-1803-1819.png

Also Baden would be much smaller. All green and blue territories became a part of Baden after 1806.
Probably some territories would became a part of Württemberg. Maybe the principality of Fürstenberg could survive.
Baden can't do anything against the French Empire. (Around 1789 they had less than 2000 men, and for the invasion of Russia, Baden had to recruit 7000 men)
 
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