Bad decisions

Alfred Peter Friedrich von Tirpitz
Alfred Peter Friedrich von Tirpitz

What's the point of having a navy if you never use it?

Those words were in my opinion what led to the great war, 12 words that showed that the Kaiser simply did not understand anything about war. The following ones were, "This will all be over by Christmas."

The aim of the war was to make Cuba a German colony, and the original plan was crafted in 1898, the idea was a great German fleet would sail across the atlantic defeat the American navy in a decisive battle attack Norfolk and then blockade the American's a german diplomat would arrive with our demands and we would emerge victorious from the conflict.

It was pure wishful thinking and we were able to successfully convince the Kaiser that the plan wouldn't be prudent because we simply put did not have enough ships to make the plan work. So then the second plan was hatched, a two pronged invasion of Boston and New York city. The plan called for 60 warships, at least 60 cargo ships, 75,000 tons of coal and a hundred thousand troops. I dismissed it at first and just hoped the Kaiser would develop another fancy as he often did we all thought it was a done topic by 1900. We were wrong.

The Kaiser looked at the Russo-Japanese war and concluded that a surprise attack could easily cow the American's and that their lack of military preparedness would mean an easy victory. At the time Germany was in the mists of a massive naval building spree with us spending 60% of the nations budget on the military. There were plans to scrap the older ships to make way for the new ones. This is when the Kaiser let us know of his plan.

We would take the older ships, sail them to north America and attack Boston and New York in a sneak attack.

When I asked him how we would supply our troops with supplies he simply stated they would live off the land, he thought the American's had a weak will and that their leadership would capitulate to us utterly once a proper show of force and german might had been made. So in 1907 we send out 5 wittlesbach class battleships crusiers, transport ships, the entire invasion fleet ended up being half of the warships that were initially called for and half cargo ships to hold the troops, who numbered less then the 100,00 men the plan required, how much fewer? 50,000 men.

The element of surprise, lack of preparation, the weakness of the American government would be more then enough to get them to fold with in months, demands grew as the plan was hatched going from just Cuba, to the entire east coast of the united states, we convinced him to settle for just demanding Florida. So we set sail in the dead of night determined to finish the war quickly, after all how much fight did this Theodore Roosevelt have in him?
 
Theodore Roosevelt was within 24 hours of going to war with Germany in 1902 over the Venezuelan debt crisis. The ships were in place, Admiral Dewey was in command, and it would have gone ahead except the Kaiser caved in (secretly) to American demands. Face was saved and war was averted.
 

nbcman

Donor
How would there be any US surprise for this honking big German armada sailing past the UK (thru the GIUK gap) or the UK and France (down the English Channel) at the speed of transport ships (6 kts). The RN would freak out and at a minimum shadow the German fleet. Also, what are the Germans going to do when the majority of their ships run out of coal on the way to Boston as it is over 3400 miles between Bremerhaven and Boston?

Unless the RN is providing coaling support to the Germans and somehow no one notices the German armada or notifies the US while the Germans take a minimum of 24 days to sail there, the Kraizy Kaiser Invasion scenario is completely implausible.

EDIT: Since there will be no surprise, here is the USN Atlantic Fleet OOB for 1907. There would be 15 BB class ships plus other vessels waiting for the 5 German PDNs. Even if some of the USN ships are not as advanced as the German PDNs, it is no contest that the USN would win and there would be no invasion of the US.
 
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McPherson

Banned
How would there be any US surprise for this honking big German armada sailing past the UK (thru the GIUK gap) or the UK and France (down the English Channel) at the speed of transport ships (6 kts). The RN would freak out and at a minimum shadow the German fleet. Also, what are the Germans going to do when the majority of their ships run out of coal on the way to Boston as it is over 3400 miles between Bremerhaven and Boston?

Unless the RN is providing coaling support to the Germans and somehow no one notices the German armada or notifies the US while the Germans take a minimum of 24 days to sail there, the Kraizy Kaiser Invasion scenario is completely implausible.

EDIT: Since there will be no surprise, here is the USN Atlantic Fleet OOB for 1907. There would be 15 BB class ships plus other vessels waiting for the 5 German PDNs. Even if some of the USN ships are not as advanced as the German PDNs, it is no contest that the USN would win and there would be no invasion of the US.


(^^^) Also the American admirals of that generation are just too damned good. It would be a slaughter.
 

Deleted member 94680

How would there be any US surprise for this honking big German armada sailing past the UK

The armada would never sail. The Kaiser might have had a lot of authority, but he wasn’t a dictator or autocrat. There would be many hours, if not days, of highly strung arguments, temper tantrums, threats of resignations, probably some resignations and finally the Kaiser will back down. He’d flounce in a funk for a few days, or weeks, and eventually bounce back with some new, equally ridiculous, scheme. Probably to do with the Army. Which would be modified by diplomats, military figures and various friends to the point of ‘safety’ for Germany.
 

McPherson

Banned
The armada would never sail. The Kaiser might have had a lot of authority, but he wasn’t a dictator or autocrat. There would be many hours, if not days, of highly strung arguments, temper tantrums, threats of resignations, probably some resignations and finally the Kaiser will back down. He’d flounce in a funk for a few days, or weeks, and eventually bounce back with some new, equally ridiculous, scheme. Probably to do with the Army. Which would be modified by diplomats, military figures and various friends to the point of ‘safety’ for Germany.

I have two problems.

a. The Russians managed to sail past the UK to be sunk by the IJN, so an HSF future artificial reef system off the Virginia Capes after a rendezvous with USN artillery is quite feasible and plausible.
b. Wilhelm the Second had " diplomats, military figures and various friends" trying to head him off at the pass but you know... July Crisis. All it would take is von Dederichs drowning in Manila Bay after he messes up with Dewey and the brakes are off.
 

Deleted member 94680

a. The Russians managed to sail past the UK to be sunk by the IJN, so an HSF future artificial reef system off the Virginia Capes after a rendezvous with USN artillery is quite feasible and plausible.

So? I never mentioned the British stopping them. I don’t think they would, for the very historical precedent you mentioned.

b. Wilhelm the Second had " diplomats, military figures and various friends" trying to head him off at the pass but you know... July Crisis. All it would take is von Dederichs drowning in Manila Bay after he messes up with Dewey and the brakes are off.

The July Crisis is what happens when the diplomats and military figures agree with him. It was a rare alignment of various actors within the German system. Partly as such because every other “Wilhelmine Crisis” was headed off by these inter-factional relationships.

My point was it would never get to any Admiral messing up in Manila Bay (do the Germans steam clean past New England?) in the first place, as they would never set sail.

By the way, von Dederichs retired in 1902, Dewey was Admiral of the Navy by 1903 and the PoD is 1907 and for an Atlantic crossing with an eastern seaboard invasion.
 

McPherson

Banned
The aim of the war was to make Cuba a German colony, and the original plan was crafted in 1898,
By the way, von Dederichs retired in 1902, Dewey was Admiral of the Navy by 1903 and the PoD is 1907 and for an Atlantic crossing with an eastern seaboard invasion.

In 1898-99, when all the insanity was crafted... the original author was that imbecile, Tirpitz. Honestly... how a landlubber like him supposedly was going to pull off a naval war against the likes of Alfred Thayer Mahan, Henry C. Taylor, Theodore Roosevelt, Arent S. Crowninshield et al is beyond me.

The possibility of a German/American War as described in the OP is best in 1898 or in the Venezuelan crisis of 1902–1903.

Frankly, Germany's best naval chance is 1898. Once the GWF gets going it is a bad mistake to tangle with the USN in home waters.
 

nbcman

Donor
In 1898-99, when all the insanity was crafted... the original author was that imbecile, Tirpitz. Honestly... how a landlubber like him supposedly was going to pull off a naval war against the likes of Alfred Thayer Mahan, Henry C. Taylor, Theodore Roosevelt, Arent S. Crowninshield et al is beyond me.

The possibility of a German/American War as described in the OP is best in 1898 or in the Venezuelan crisis of 1902–1903.

Frankly, Germany's best naval chance is 1898. Once the GWF gets going it is a bad mistake to tangle with the USN in home waters.
Unless Germany tries when the GWF is on the other side of the world-maybe October - December 1908 when they were in the Far East. Otherwise, Germany's Armada would be doomed if they tried in 1907 per the OP.
 
Alfred Peter Friedrich von Tirpitz
Alfred Peter Friedrich von Tirpitz



Operation wishful thinking was in my opinion a bad idea, a really bad idea and normally it would have been blocked but the elections had brought in people who were patrotic who belived in the strength of germany in other words bootlicks. We were able to limit our losses by only giving up older ships the plan was to limit our losses and then just pay damages once the brief conflict was over.

As for operation wishful thinking it of course required absolute secrecy so officially the fleet was sailing for other reasons and we told the British and French some nonsense about showing some colonials who truely held the power. Our spies were confidant that they bought the ruse and we sailed out into the atlantic with just enough coal to make a round trip, there was little to no margin of error and we were confident that we had the element of surprise.

Our fleet split into two and attacked the cities of Boston and New York, there was just one slight problem.

The american's knew, the american fleet who had been absent for the entire trip proved that they did exist at the worst possible time. We attacked in the dead of night in Boston harbor, then found our ships trapped in said harbor by the american navy. Other then some minor damage to the docks Boston did little damage and in return every ship we sent was sunk. The only troops and sailors who survived were the ones rescued by the yankees.

New York went both better and worse, the American plan was to meet our troops with a contengent of Marines, and trap our forces in the hudson, we had though by accident attacked the wrong position and attacked Manhatten, with 30,000 troops. Our ships bombarded the island, giving away our position to the Americans who promptly redeployed to cut us off and easily trap our forces. Our ships may have been more advanced but they had more of them and all of our ships were destroyed but not before our troops landed. Their maps were innacurate, because we landed in the wrong place but our men decided to press their advantage and attack and ended up getting seperated in the darkness fire and unfamilar terrain.

Unable to see targets of milatary value the men decided to make due and attack at will this led to some decisions that in retrospect were unwise. Such as the attack and slaughter of Saint anthony's covent. In the darkness the men thought it looked like some thing of value and attacked it, by the time they figured out it was a religious insitution the nuns were already dead and the place was on fire.

There were incidents like that through out the night and when daylight hit the americans fought back. Police officers, milatary personal and enraged civilians started hunting our troops and we had more or less expended all of our ammunition by this point resupply from ship was not possible because the ships had been sunk. Our troops were slaughtered by angry mobs there were no survivors of the New York campain.

When the news of the disaster got back to us, most of the general staff was not surprised. The Kaiser was in a rage about the murder of German troops in New York city and went on a tirade, about spies and demanded we find them. And we did, a lady of easy virtue from Lorraine named Marie Martin. Rather then buckling like most would she was defiant in the public trial referring to our troops as murderers who stole land that rightfully belonged to france and said her actions were done to protect innocent women and children from our evil empire.

Well with a public confession like that the Kaiser ordered her to be dealt with publically, personally I doubted it was just one spy who leaked the plan to the Americans but we dutifully followed his orders Marie made a show of the event by singing La Marseillaise before we ended her life. Unknown to us of course was the fact that there was a french journalist in the crowd. Who of course relayed the story to French newspapers, which then went global.

The Kaiser then went on a rant infront of the troops and gave them access to the bars around berlin on the crown, the milatary police found out that some of our troops were thinking about attacking the american embassy so we quickly moved to protect it and searched the city for the idiots before they hurt anyone, however very drunk and not native to berlin the group of 5 men did attack an embasy. The Russian one, when we got there several embassy workers were dead including the diplomat and his small child.

Those of us in the general staff decided that we needed to contact the Russians at once, and try to smooth things over, and we likewise were able to convince the Kaiser to try to talk to the americans. We belived they were reasonable if weak people and we could settle this all with some money and apologies.

Well the Russian matter blew up in our faces with the russian press calling for blood they declared war on us, the french soon followed screaming out some nonsense like for Marine Martin, this was bad but we were confident we could end this by simply invading France through Belgium and then turn over and defend in the east until Russian honor was satisfied.

As for the americans it turned out that they were not a reasonable people at all....
 

McPherson

Banned
Unless Germany tries when the GWF is on the other side of the world-maybe October - December 1908 when they were in the Far East. Otherwise, Germany's Armada would be doomed if they tried in 1907 per the OP.

Theodore Roosevelt sends his diplomats to this guy... Georges Clemenceau(PM of France 1906-1909 for his first time around.) and says something to the effect; "Hé, Geoeges; Kaiser Bill a perdu son caractère raisonnable. Peut-être, alors qu’il envoie sa marine mourir contre les côtes de mon pays, comment aimeriez-vous récupérer l’Alsace/Lorraine ? Je veux dire qu’il est juste de retourner son geste.

("Hey, Geoeges; Kaiser Bill has lost his reasonableness. Perhaps, as he sends his navy to die against my country's coasts, how would you like to get Alsace/Lorraine back? I mean it is fair to return his gesture.")

Something like that... with an American army to help out.

And how long can the Germans stay, once the recall goes out or can they even make it when that recall goes out?
 
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nbcman

Donor
Theodore Roosevelt sends his diplomats to this guy... Georges Clemenceau(PM of France 1906-1909 for his first time around.) and says something to the effect; "Hé, Geoeges; Kaiser Bill a perdu son caractère raisonnable. Peut-être, alors qu’il envoie sa marine mourir contre les côtes de mon pays, comment aimeriez-vous récupérer l’Alsace/Lorraine ? Je veux dire qu’il est juste de retourner son geste.

("Hey, Geoeges; Kaiser Bill has lost his reasonableness. Perhaps, as he sends his navy to die against my country's coasts, how would you like to get Alsace/Lorraine back? I mean it is fair to return his gesture.")

Something like that... with an American army to help out.
Yeah, I know it the scenario is still a mess. But it is the difference between marginally suicidal dumb to stick your head in the woodchipper stupid.
 

McPherson

Banned
Yeah, I know it the scenario is still a mess. But it is the difference between marginally suicidal dumb to stick your head in the woodchipper stupid.

Some Background 1.

Some Background 2.

Naval Law 1898. (wiki)

Naval Law 1898. (wiki in German)

What the Germans had in 1898:

Ironclads (converted modernized frigates)

16 x 21 cm,
SMS Kronprinz, 1867

2 × 21 cm, 14 × 21 cm
SMS Friedrich Carl, 1867

33 x 72pdr guns… modernized 18 x 24 cm, 4 x 21 cm.
SMS König Wilhelm, 1868

8 x 21 cm
SMS Hansa, 1872

4 × 26 cm, 2 × 17 cm
SMS Preussen, 1873
SMS Friedrich der Grosse, 1874
SMS Grosser Kurfürst, 1875

8 x 26 cm guns
SMS Kaiser, 1875
SMS Deutschland, 1875

6 x 26 cm guns
SMS Sachsen, 1877
SMS Bayern, 1878
SMS Württemberg, 1878
SMS Baden, 1880

8 x 24 cm guns
SMS Oldenburg, 1884

Coast defense gunships.

3 x 24 cm guns
SMS Siegfried, 1889
SMS Beowulf, 1890
SMS Frithjof, 1892
SMS Heimdall, 1892
SMS Hildebrand, 1892
SMS Hagen, 1893

3 x 24 cm guns)
SMS Odin, 1894
SMS Ägir, 1895

Battleships;

6 x 28 cm guns
SMS Kurfürst Friedrich Wilhelm, 1891
SMS Brandenburg, 1891
SMS Weissenburg, 1891
SMS Wörth, 1892

4 x 24 cm guns
SMS Kaiser Friedrich III, 1896
SMS Kaiser Wilhelm II, 1897

Armored cruisers

4 x 24 cm guns, 12 x 15 cm guns
SMS Fürst Bismarck, 1897

Protected cruisers:

14 x 15 cm guns, 4 x 15 cm guns
SMS Irene
SMS Prinzess Wilhelm

4 x 15 cm guns
SMS Kaiserin Augusta, 1892

2 x 21 cm guns, 8 x 15 cm guns)
SMS Victoria Louise, 1897
SMS Hertha, 1897
SMS Freya, 1897
SMS Vineta, 1897

Peace cruisers.

8 x 10.5 cm guns
SMS Schwalbe, 1887
SMS Sperber, 1888

8 x 10.5 cm guns
SMS Bussard, 1890
SMS Falke, 1891
SMS Seeadler, 1892
SMS Cormoran, 1892
SMS Condor, 1892
SMS Geier, 1894

3,700 tons, 10 x 10.5 cm guns
SMS Gefion, 1893

Messenger boats

6 x 5 cm guns
SMS Zieten, 1876

6 x 8.8 cm guns
SMS Blitz, 1882
SMS Pfeil, 1882

8 x 8.8 cm guns)
SMS Greif, 1886

3 x 10.5 cm guns, 4 x 8.8 cm guns)
SMS Wacht, 1887
SMS Jagd, 1888

4 x 8.8 cm guns)
SMS Meteor, 1890
SMS Comet, 1892

4 x 8.8 cm guns
SMS Hela, 1895

and about 40 wooden or steel hulled gunboats.

I'm working on the thesis, that it would be most balanced and bizarre and likely in 1898. The PoD is reasonable.

Now you can look at that and realize that the Americans not only OUTGUNNED these guys, had better armor were FASTER and better trained and led.

Now the Germans on an average had 2x the number of ships afloat class to class, but the Americans were doubling their fleet about that time.

That is the actual August 1898 situation.
 
The smartest war move would be to let the Americans come to them.. Not the other way.

Germany simply never was a marine power of real weight. Unless u boots are all the rage to back up this fleet... And I know Bill wasn't exactly playing with a full deck, and Tirpitz wasn't exactly God of the seas, but I can't see it getting going or else.. Well yeah.. The next navy review is done while standing on American glass bottom boats.

Not to mention the lives, the equipment.. Etc.. It would be utter daft. The USA isn't the enemy.. Its france, England and Russia.

I really can't picture how this would really get off the ground. Hey USA.. We are at war.. Lobs rock from Keil.

Honestly almost as much a non starter as the USA just showing up off the coast of Germany to start a war. At sea or home turf the US is going to win. But turn the tabkes and home turf I belive the Germans win. Its simply hard to fantom.. But I agree, it would be a disaster for Germany.

I mean even in the event they land.. Get everything a shore.. Then the US navy shows up.. Win or loose alot of the German navy is now sunk...

Now you have troops in supportable in the USA.. Hell the US doesn't even have to fire a shot.. Starve them out.

Daft.. They would make movies about this and they would epic
 

McPherson

Banned
The smartest war move would be to let the Americans come to them.. Not the other way.
Germans tried that one twice.
Germany simply never was a marine power of real weight. Unless u boots are all the rage to back up this fleet... And I know Bill wasn't exactly playing with a full deck, and Tirpitz wasn't exactly God of the seas, but I can't see it getting going or else.. Well yeah.. The next navy review is done while standing on American glass bottom boats.
Hmm. The submarine arm would be going the other way in that case, since the Americans actually had better ones at that time.
Not to mention the lives, the equipment.. Etc.. It would be utterly daft. The USA isn't the enemy.. Its France, England and Russia.
That makes sense to me to consider the guys next door; who want to cut your throats, are the real enemies.
I really can't picture how this would really get off the ground. Hey USA.. We are at war.. Lobs rock from Kiel.
Majestät: Vizeadmiral von Diederichs ertrank zusammen mit 28 Offizieren und 328 Matrosen des gepanzerten Schiffes Irene, das sich am Meeresboden der Manila Bay befindet. Die Details sind unklar, aber die Amerikaner behaupten, dass es ein Navigationsunfall war, als die USS Columbia unser Schiff rammte.
(Majesty: Vice-Admiral von Diederichs drowned; along with 28 officers and 328 sailors from the armored ship, Irene, which is now located on the seabed of Manila Bay. The details are unclear, but the Americans claim it was a navigational accident when the USS Columbia rammed our ship.)
Honestly almost as much a non starter as the USA just showing up off the coast of Germany to start a war. At sea or home turf the US is going to win. But turn the tables and home turf I believe the Germans win. Its simply hard to fathom.. But I agree, it would be a disaster for Germany.
As to that, Through ticket to Berlin has to go through Paris.
I mean even in the event they land.. Get everything ashore. Then the US navy shows up.. Win or loose a lot of the German navy is now sunk...
I think they run as soon as the battle fleet shows up and wrecks their colliers.
Now you have troops [not] supportable in the USA.. Hell, the US doesn't even have to fire a shot.. Starve them out.
Yup. The National Guard just seals off the beachheads and the railroad artillery shows up for target practice.
Daft.. They would make movies about this and they would be epic.
"Death of a Nation" by D. W. Griffith^1

^1 Reprehensible human being who created a despicable movie called "Birth of a Nation". Do not be fooled by the modern puff pieces about him, he was a typical racist of his era.
 

Deleted member 94680

In 1898-99, when all the insanity was crafted... the original author was that imbecile, Tirpitz. Honestly... how a landlubber like him supposedly was going to pull off a naval war against the likes of Alfred Thayer Mahan, Henry C. Taylor, Theodore Roosevelt, Arent S. Crowninshield et al is beyond me.

The possibility of a German/American War as described in the OP is best in 1898 or in the Venezuelan crisis of 1902–1903.

Frankly, Germany's best naval chance is 1898. Once the GWF gets going it is a bad mistake to tangle with the USN in home waters.

Fair enough on all of the points, but it's not what the OP wrote. Also, why are you dragging my replies into your theorising when I didn't write what you're challenging? It makes it rather confusing to reply when I'm asked to respond to something I didn't suggest in the first place.

But Tirpitz a landlubber? How do you figure that one?
 

McPherson

Banned
So? I never mentioned the British stopping them. I don’t think they would, for the very historical precedent you mentioned.
Your point and your explanation was that the Germans would never stumble into an insane pointless war. My point is that ANY nation can stumble into an insane pointless war, with a host of nations doing that very thing over the most idiotic of reasons. Take an archduke killed by a terrorist or a manufactured naval incident and you get WWI or the Vietnam War as RTL examples. It is a recurring historical theme.
The July Crisis is what happens when the diplomats and military figures agree with him. It was a rare alignment of various actors within the German system. Partly as such because every other “Wilhelmine Crisis” was headed off by these inter-factional relationships.
More of less, the lemmings all line up and agree that they must allow it, when they see the mobilizations cascade on a non-preventable timetable of interlocking idiotic planning. Germany has to move quickly or they will be caught in a Franco-Russian nutcracker... Now that IS bad planning but even the whacko, Wilhelm, hesitated and was overruled by his own military and political advisors when he asked if the German mobilization could be recalled or delayed. It could not, once he authorized it, and the news got out, or the whole German war-plan for a quick war would be derailed. LITERALLY.
My point was it would never get to any Admiral messing up in Manila Bay (do the Germans steam clean past New England?) in the first place, as they would never set sail.
Oh... hello. The Germans (Whacky Wilhelm included.) would react domestically to the theoretical von Diederichs ATL screw up, when Dewey blows him to glory for interfering with American operations, the EXACT way that McKinley was side-railed into war against Spain when the Maine "mysteriously" blew up and for much the same reason. Public opinion shaped by incompetent journalism and taken advantage by opportunistic politicians in and out of uniform would steer Germany into war. Full of their own overestimation of themselves and underestimation of the enemy, they would charge into a disaster eyes wide open. I mean if you read the Spanish American War and realize that it was a miracle that the Tercio did not hand the American army their asses, this is the precise kind of stupidity that mirrors the Boer War and a half dozen debacles the Euro and Western powers march into at the turn of the century in Africa and Asia.
By the way, von Dederichs retired in 1902, Dewey was Admiral of the Navy by 1903 and the PoD is 1907 and for an Atlantic crossing with an eastern seaboard invasion.
But both of them are present at Manila Bay in 1898.
Fair enough on all of the points, but it's not what the OP wrote. Also, why are you dragging my replies into your theorising when I didn't write what you're challenging? It makes it rather confusing to reply when I'm asked to respond to something I didn't suggest in the first place.
See previous statements that I have developed off your comments.(^^^) The OP is kind of interesting in that it picks the wrong dates as to when a PoD is possible.
But Tirpitz a landlubber? How do you figure that one?
Because he was clueless ABOUT SEAPOWER.

BACKGROUND.
German admiral, Secretary of State for the Navy, philosopher, organiser and devoted enemy of Britain, Alfred was born in 1849 and lived to the age of eighty. All his adult life he was a supporter of Weltpolitik, which depended on the acquisition of colonies, and the construction of a navy big enough and strong enough to protect them. Disliking the size of the British Navy, he proposed huge fleets precisely to prevent Britain from blocking Germany’s entry into world markets.

In 1897 he wrote, ‘For Germany the most dangerous opponent at the present time is England,’ and went on to explain why Germany needed to challenge Britain in home waters: ‘between Heligoland and the Thames’. Britain at that time had thirty-eight battleships and thirty-four cruisers, a heavy burden on the Exchequer but satisfying to the public in town and country. Germany had seven battleships and two cruisers. Tirpitz commented: ‘the construction of a fleet is the work of a generation.’

He developed his own ‘Risk Theory’, which proposed ‘the building of a fleet strong enough to threaten British superiority in the North Sea, so that by attacking such a fleet Britain would take the risk of losing so many ships that it would become inferior to other rivals, such as France and Russia. This (Tirpitz concluded) would make Britain realise the necessity of coming to an agreement with Germany and would enable Germany to acquire an empire by peaceful means’.

Von Tirpitz believed that the Navy Laws of 1898 which allowed for the building of 19 battleships would gain the support of German working classes. The second Navy Law of 1900 doubled this quantity. Combined, the Laws would provide much needed employment, and inspire patriotism. Politically, Tirpitz thought that such a magnificent enterprise would count against the rising Social Democratic Party and make it easier for the Junker class (mostly army officers and bureaucrats) to maintain their position of superiority in the State.

Tirpitz’ assumptions were false, or his intelligence networks had overstated the case. He thought that Britain would never be able to concentrate enough of her fleet in the North Sea to meet any Germany challenge, because the Navy was so involved elsewhere. He also believed that Britain would never ally with any other world power except Germany.

I love maps.

1582354969778.png


Tirpitz ignored the use of the sea as the main real reason for a navy. How was the HSF with a composite tactical radius of about 1,500 kilometers, supposed to get to the western approaches and seek decision for the use of the seas where it mattered? As long as the British fleet sat at the sortie radius limit of the HSF, they could sit at Scapa Flow and REFUSE battle and dare the HSF to come to them and be slaughtered. Even parity for Tirpitz does not help since the German fleet cannot operate into the North Atlantic. No colliers. No base system, no sustainment. No logistics.

Mahan would have laughed at Tirpitz, actually did laugh at Tirpitz when he saw that garbage about navies that the man put into print.

Naval geography was always at the core of Mahan's work. His analysis of the Napoleonic Naval Wars (See Map.) showed that the Western Approaches was the only piece of naval geography that mattered when it came to the United Kingdom. The Americans knew this from the Revolutionary War onward. They built their cruisers for it.

Only a landlubber, who thinks in land warfare terms, would fail to realize where the nexus of decision is.
 
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