Back from the Brink: A study of the Western Survival

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Deleted member 67076

Back From the Brink​
Author’s Preamble:

Alright, this has been an idea floating around in my head for a while. The basic premise of this timeline is one where the Western Roman Empire is able to make it through the turmoil-filled fifth century alive.

This is not a Western Rome-wank as that is for our purposes, very unlikely. This is not to say it can’t be done. Do not expect Roman Germania and a second Pax Romana anytime soon. A likely comparison to this is a post 1250 Byzantine Revival. (1) Not impossible, but very, very unlikely. No, here they will struggle. Blood, sweat and tears will be shed, but they will survive.

Now some of you may notice this is similar to Basileus Giorgios’ Timeline City of God. Yes, he is aware of this and he has given me his blessing to pursue a timeline with a similar premise.

The Point of Divergence, well one of them, (as there will be several) will be the quick end of the Vandal tribes as a threat to Rome by use of war with a neighboring tribe, the Suevi in 409-411, before they become a credible threat. In turn this leads to Rome’s African front being secure for now. With the African front secure, Rome can turn her efforts into other things...

Introduction:

409 CE. All is not well for Rome. The once mighty empire now stands on a shaky frame. Far from being the superpower of her time, she is a broken shell of her former self, a paper tiger. All around there are problems: socially, economically, militarily. Corruption and decadence run rampant. Rome’s currency, struggling to pay off their soldiers, suffers the indignity of devaluation. The government is weak, divided and indecisive. The Army, once the model of all nations and the greatest force Europe had ever seen, is now a far cry from the forces that defended the empire long ago. Taking advantage of this weakness, the barbarian tribes, once pushed back by Rome’s might, now begin their invasions, conquering all in their path.

For now, Rome appeases them with gifts of titles and lands, but how long until will they want more, and Rome is unable to please them? Change must come and it must come soon. Fortunately for the empire, as the saying goes, help often comes when you need it most. This will happen in the quiet province of Iberia, in the year 411 CE...


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The empire of the west, at the beginning of 409 CE (areas in revolt not shown)



Chapter one: Greed is (relatively) Good

Greed, for lack of a better word, is good. Greed is right. Greed works. Greed clarifies, cuts through, and captures, the essence of the evolutionary spirit. Greed, in all of its forms; greed for life, for money, for love, knowledge, has marked the upward surge of mankind and greed...

The Province of Hispania, formerly one of the wealthiest, content and peaceful provinces of the empire is now embroiled in war. The forces of Constantinus III, general of the west come to blows with the forces of Gerontius, general and supporter of the usurper, Maximus of Hispania, creating yet another civil war in already ravaged empire. Constantine, already the power behind the throne, seeks to solidify his rule by eliminating threats like Maximus. The once unified Roman forces are stuck fighting each other for dominance. With Roman forces occupied on fighting each other, the Pyrenees passes were left unguarded.

As a result, various Germanic tribes use this opportunity to move into the rich province of Hispania. Among them are the Suevi, Alans, Visigoths Hasdingi and Silingi, the latter two better known collectively as the Vandals. On September of 409, thousands made the fatefully journey into Iberia.

The tribes quickly moved into the area, brutally looting whatever they can attain, dragging Hispania into chaos and famine for 2 years. In 411 CE, the tribes began to divide Hispania among them. The division was to be held by lots. (2)
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All around Hispaina, Roman troops were overrun by the invading tribes

However, rather than peacefully dividing up the lands, negotiations quickly broke down to tribal arguments over who “deserved the most land” with part of the tribes demanding more lands than they received. Eventually war broke out among the tribes, one the Romans were too happy to take advantage of.

In the ensuing conflict, the Suevi, allied with the Romans, went to war with the Vandals and Alans, defeating them, and in the process, killing their king Godigisel, and his sons, Genseric and Gunderic in battle. (3) As a result, the Vandals were weakened by this war and deprived of some of their best leaders. In the coming years, they retreated from Iberia into the province of Gaul. In reward for the Suevi’s loyalty, they were awarded the lands the Vandals.


(1) Elfwine, in the event you’re reading this, no it’s not a ‘9th inning salvation TL’. It’s at most, the bottom of the 6th inning with the score 6-4 and the Barbarians batting. For everyone else, ignore the baseball reference.
(2) It is not known whether it was the tribes themselves dividing Iberia of they received lands from the Roman government. For our purposes, assume the former. This is also the POD. In OTL the tribes divided up the lands rather peacefully through use of lots.
(3) Genseric was the one who established the Vandal Kingdom of Africa, dealing, what could best be described as a shot in the stomach for the WRE.
 
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Far from being the superpower of her time, she is a broken shell of her former self, a paper tiger.
I'm very unsure about this. The Western Roman state in the early fifth century is very far from a paper tiger: it's an order of magnitude more wealthy and powerful than all of the other petty kingdoms of northern and western Europe put together.

Soverihn said:
All around there are problems: socially, economically, militarily. Corruption and decadence run rampant.
Which is something that can easily be said about the glory days of the late Republic too.

Soverihn said:
Rome’s currency, struggling to pay off their soldiers, suffers the indignity of devaluation.
I'm not aware of any devaluation of the solidus in the fourth or fifth century: happy to be proved wrong, though!

Soverihn said:
The Army, once the model of all nations and the greatest force Europe had ever seen, is now a far cry from the forces that defended the empire long ago. Taking advantage of this weakness, the barbarian tribes, once pushed back by Rome’s might, now begin their invasions, conquering all in their path.
It's still the model of all European nations, and is still the greatest force Europe has ever seen. It's also much larger than it has been at any point since the warlord-era of the Late Republic.

Soverihn said:
The Province of Iberia, formerly one of the wealthiest, content and peaceful provinces of the empire is now embroiled in war.
Do you mean the Diocese of Hispania? I know of no "Province of Iberia".

Soverihn said:
Constantine, already the power behind the throne, seeks to solidify his rule by eliminating threats like Maximus.
Do you mean Flavius Constantius here?

Soverihn said:
As a result, various Germanic tribes use this opportunity to move into the rich province of Hispania. Among them are the Suevi, Alans, Visigoths Hasdingi and Silingi, the latter two better known collectively as the Vandals. On September of 409, thousands made the fatefully journey into Iberia.
The Visigoths did not move into Hispania with the Alan-led coalition. Instead, they were sent there several years later as Roman mercenaries, following their defeat at the hands of Constantius.

This is a promising TL, but I think you need to do more research. Fortunately, most of it is easily available in Peter Heather's The Fall of the Roman Empire, an absolute must read for any historian.
 

Deleted member 67076

I'm very unsure about this. The Western Roman state in the early fifth century is very far from a paper tiger: it's an order of magnitude more wealthy and powerful than all of the other petty kingdoms of northern and western Europe put together.
Compare Rome now to to the pre 3rd century crisis level and that's why I call it a paper tiger

Which is something that can easily be said about the glory days of the late Republic too.
True.

I'm not aware of any devaluation of the solidus in the fourth or fifth century: happy to be proved wrong, though!
I've read that the early 5th century was a period of economic recession and as such devaluation occurred.

It's still the model of all European nations, and is still the greatest force Europe has ever seen. It's also much larger than it has been at any point since the warlord-era of the Late Republic.
Again, true.


Do you mean the Diocese of Hispania? I know of no "Province of Iberia".

Do you mean Flavius Constantius here?
Whoops, I messed up. :eek: This is why you don't eat and type at the same time. Editing!

The Visigoths did not move into Hispania with the Alan-led coalition. Instead, they were sent there several years later as Roman mercenaries, following their defeat at the hands of Constantius.

This is a promising TL, but I think you need to do more research. Fortunately, most of it is easily available in Peter Heather's The Fall of the Roman Empire, an absolute must read for any historian.

Really?:confused: I read that they were already in Iberia at the time.

As always thank you for taking the time to point out my mistakes BG and helping me improve! I'm buying that book.
 
Hmmm, I proposed a idea similar to this. Gerontius stays loyal to Constantine 3 and the two kill/freeze the barbarians to death in the Pyreneese.
 
5th century coins in the West Roman Empire

I'm not aware of any devaluation of the solidus in the fourth or fifth century: happy to be proved wrong, though!

The solidus wasn't debased. It had the same gold content in 476 as it had in the 4th century. Not too many were being minted after Valentinian III, however, and they command high to astronomical (six figures for a coin of Olybrius) prices today.

Silver coinage had virtually disappeared after Honorius, and 5th century Roman copper coins are really crude compared to earlier centuries.

Some sources: David Sear, Roman Coins and Their Values; Roman Silver Coins, Vol. V; Coin Auction Archives website.
 
The Visigoths settled in Southern Gaul after the sacking of Rome. The Romans invited them in Spain a little later to help deal with the Vandals and Suevi.

Other than that, great TL. I'll be following with interest.
 

Deleted member 67076

The Visigoths settled in Southern Gaul after the sacking of Rome. The Romans invited them in Spain a little later to help deal with the Vandals and Suevi.

Other than that, great TL. I'll be following with interest.

Finally! A survivng Western Rome TL! You're off to a good start. Keep going!
Thanks guys!:D I'll try yo update this after my other TL
 
That's it! I am now subscribed! Perhaps you can work Prince Theodosius of the Goths in from the "AH:Galla Placidia's child with Atawulf survives; A Gothic Dynasty"? From your comments in that thread I kinda think you are already considering it.

Hero of Canton
 
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Interested to see where this goes; subscribing.

Making the Suevi more powerful, particularly as Roman allies, has interesting butterflies. If the Visigoths never make it into Spain, things could get even more interesting.

If the Vandals don't make it to Africa, there's a chance Augustine lives a bit longer as well, which has some butterfly potential also.
 
My Roman Empire's Death by Suicide Rant

WTF with the obsession with racial purity on the part of the aristocracy in the 5th Century?

I just can't understand why the wealthy aristocracy of Roman Empire after seeing the Empire brought to its height by Spanish Provincial Emperors in the 2nd Century, saved from extinction by Illyrian Provincial Emperors in the 3rd Century would suddenly pick this dire time to become obsessed with racial purity so as to deny ethnically German but culturally Roman leaders, STILICHO to be exact, the highest office and force them to rule from behind a screen. Maybe in an ATL like this the Empire embraces this new infusion of Germanic vigor and instead of antagonists we see the likes of Emperor Stilicho, Emperor Aetius, and eventually Roman Emperor/King of the Goths Theodosius son of Galla Placidia and Atalf. A line of German Emperors that "Revived the Roman name".

Hell we mighta seen the likes of Magister Militum Alaric and Magister Militum Gensaric! Imagine the benefits of the Visigoths and the Vandals as loyal auxiliaries and legionaires rather than barbarian laeti!

Hero of Canton
 

Deleted member 67076

Its been way too long since I last updated this. Hopefully the quality will be better than the fist update:

Chapter 2: The Usurpers

409: The Vandals, a group of Germanic tribes composed of the Silingi and Hasdingi, had just been dealt a devastating blow by a joint Roman-Suevi force. In the ensuing battle, the Vandal King, Godigisel, and his sons, Genseric and Gunderic have been killed, along with other soldiers. Derived of their leadership, the Vandals retreat back into the relative safety of Gaul.

As a reward, the Suevi, were given the lands that were to be allotted to the Vandals. Content with receiving more lands, the Suevi began to rather peacefully settle the eastern parts of the province. With regards to the other tribes who crossed the Pyrenees, they were weakened from war, and as such either relented to the Roman forces or were gradually pushed out of Hispania.

However, the job was still not done. Far from it. General Gerontius, former supporter of the usurper Constantine III, in turn rebelled against him, attempting to install his own candidate for the purple, Maximus of Hispania. This was likely in response to Constantine's attempt to install his own son and general, Constans to the title of Caesar, second to Honorius. Whatever the reason this practically undid the streak of good luck the Romans had with the inter-tribe war and once again, denied the the Imperial government a prosperous province to tax and recruit.


Gaul, currently under the de facto control of the British usurper Constantine III, who was just recently installed co-emperor after intensely pressuring the weak emperor Honorius, was currently attempting to solidify his control of the west. Currently he was engaging the various barbarian tribes in Gaul, attempting to push them back across the frontier, to some avail.

And yet it, there seems no end to his problems. When one ends, another rises to take its place. When one tribe was pushed back, another simply moved in. At soon as the situation in Hispania is under control, his general rebels against him. In addition to this nonsense, the Rhine frontier needed to be stabilized and the Visigoths are attempting to raise up their own usurper, a Greek senator named Priscus Attalus to the purple. And yet again, Britain was in revolt. During his stay in Gaul, he had left the island for all intents, defenseless, and was soon subject to raids by Saxon pirates, who in response, the populace revolted, expelling his officials.

Is there no end to this madness?


Alone, under pressure from all sides and for all intents without reinforcements, Constantinewas forced to consider his options. So far, there were 3. Option #1) He could attempt to march into Hispania, which, if successful had would have the effects of eliminating one of his rivals and securing control of a rich province. Option #2) Attempt to secure the frontier and hope for reinforcements, and finally, option #3) Return to Italy and attempt to depose Honorius, finally become emperor and lead your armies from Italy. Being that it was now winter, the usurper was in no position to move his troops. Thus, the rest of the year was spent wintering in Gaul. Trapped between the preverbial rock and hard place, he began to contemplate his options.

410: So begins the so called “year of 3 emperors”(Technically there were 6 claimants to the purple, but these are the important ones). We refer to, of course, Constantine, the usurper of Britannia, Maximus, the userper of Hispania and Honorius, the legitimate emperor, for whatever value that means. While Gerontius at first spent the early part of the year solidifying control of Hispania and preparing his invasion force, Constantine had made his decision. He would fight attempt to fight Gerontius. In preparation, Constantinehad made an alliance with the Franks of Gaul.(1) At spring, Constantine’s forces, under the command of his son and general Constans and bolstered with Frankish federates, began their march into Gallia Aquitania.

Gerontius has been no slouch as well. While Constantine has been trying his hand at diplomacy, Gerontius had resorted to force, and began to much to assert his control over Hispania (in Maximus' name, of course) in ways such as putting down rebellions and minting coins in the name of Emperor Maximus. Marching northward, he begins imposes his rule over much of southern Gaul, before meeting with Constantine forces.

While Constantine began his clash with Gerontius over the fate of Gaul, an important event had been passed in the empire.

A new figure emerged. One, Flavius Constantinus, had ascended to the rank of Magister Militum.

(1) Second POD: In OTL, Gerontius was the one who made the alliance with the Franks, forcing him to occupy his time fighting them and setting off the chain of events that force Constantine III desperate attempt of invading Italy, leading to his downfall
 
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It lives! Great update. Constantine (and at the same time, Gerontius as well) is really in a bad place. Everything seems to be unravelling around him (though Britain shouldn't be a problem for him since he more or less abandoned the island), and now Constantius is getting ready to retake the initiative.

The future is looking bright for the Western Empire. :D
 

Deleted member 67076

It lives! Great update. Constantine (and at the same time, Gerontius as well) is really in a bad place. Everything seems to be unravelling around him (though Britain shouldn't be a problem for him since he more or less abandoned the island), and now Constantius is getting ready to retake the initiative.

The future is looking bright for the Western Empire. :D
Thanks! It has been too long since I last updated this.

And don't get your hopes up, the 5 century is a long time.
 
Thanks! It has been too long since I last updated this.

And don't get your hopes up, the 5 century is a long time.

Yeah, I imagine it's going to drag on and on like the Third Century. (seriously, it is hard to believe that from Alexander Severus' assassination to Diocletian was only 50 years...
 

Deleted member 67076

Yeah, I imagine it's going to drag on and on like the Third Century. (seriously, it is hard to believe that from Alexander Severus' assassination to Diocletian was only 50 years...
Yup. Lots of Fridge horror when you think about it.

Anyways, new update. The next one will resolve all the loose ends in Gaul, which I've been setting up.

Chapter 3: The Diuumvirate


410, Continued:

The new Magister Militum, Flavius Constantinus was a career soldier originating in Roman Dalmatia who had managed to climb all the way to the top of the Roman Military hierarchy. How he attained the position was a stroke of luck in his part. In December of 409, Honorius reached word of Constantine’s alliance with the Franks.

Unaware of Constantine’s plan to eliminate Maximus first, and believing him of planning to invade Italia, the fearful emperor knew he had to make a decision. Looking for a way out of this problem, the emperor attempted to find a capable general to fight off the invaders. In his desperation, Honorius attempts to find someone to solve his problems. Constantinus jumped at the call.

Meanwhile, in the northern region of Italia, one Sarus had fled to the safety of Ravenna. Sarus, an Amali Gothic chieftain and general under the service of Honorius, was currently fleeing due to an attack led by the Ataulf the Goth, brother of Alaric and a personal enemy of the chieftain.

Ataulf was currently en route to join his brother in his negotiations with the Roman government, and decided to attack Sarus’ forces, believing he could easily defeat them and potentially kill Sarus. With minimal forces at hand and little chance of reinforcement, the general decided to play it safe and ordered his forces to retreat.


Ataulf’s attack soon proved to be a blessing in disguise, as it brought together the generals, Constantinus and Sarus. History records that the two met in spring of 410 in Ravenna, as Sarus and his men ran through the gates of Ravenna, intent on escaping their pursuer. From this unlikely meeting a partnership is formed between the two, whose effects would be both immediate and long lasting throughout the empire.

Initially planning to intercept the usurper during their campaign and hit two birds with one stone, Constantinus’ idea does not come to pass. In fact he delays any plan of campaigning to, in his own words “Give attention to the situation in Italia”, of course referring to the threat of Alaric and his Goths.

Why this seemingly sudden change of policy? It is because of Sarus. Deciding to use this moment to his advantage, Sarus’ proposes to lend his men and his skills against the usurpers, if Constantinus in turn decides to help the empire resolve the “Gothic problem” (read: kill, the Gothic Brothers, of whom he had a deep hatred of, even to the point of a blood feud with Ataulf). As Sarus was previously sent up against Constantine the usurper, successfully scoring victories and even killing a general of his, the Magister Militum believes he could be of great value and considers his suggestion. The two quickly begin preparation for war, with a steadily growing sense of camaraderie grows between them. In addition the two pressure Honorius into bolstering their forces with more federates and legionaries. By the beginning of summer, the two are in charge of a large army.

The campaign begins, with Constantinus and Sarus combined forces beginning their march southward towards Rome, intent on meeting with Alaric’s army. Alaric on the other hand was steadily making progress with his negotiations with the Senate. Caught off guard by the Roman forces, Alaric is forced to order his forces to fight. The Gothic brothers may have a large army at their disposal, but the sudden attack forces them into chaos, and it takes some time before discipline is regained and Alaric can coordinate a proper plan of action, much less a counterattack. But it is too late, by then; the Goths have taken considerable losses and morale is much lower than expected. Many have fled in the chaos into the safety of the Italian hinterlands while others have even defected to the other side.

Believing to be betrayed yet again by the empire, Alaric initially attempts to flee south toward his fleet, believing he and his men can escape to Africa, but are cornered and forced to change direction. Soon the warriors decide to go north, into the lawlessness of Aquitaine, where Roman control is thin thanks to the usurpers war. The Roman forces, however, eager for more, attempt to capitalize on their success and manage to push most of the Goths out of Italia by the end of the year. However, they do not pursue, and the troops winter in Italia, preparing for future battles.

Honorius, amazed at the Duumvirates’ success, awards the two with the rank of Patricius. Convinced of their effectiveness, Honorius also begins to listen to the two’s suggestions, effectively becoming a puppet of Sarus and Constantinus. This also does well to considerably mend the former’s grudge against the emperor and secure the loyalty of him and his troops.
While the people of Rome breathe a collective sigh of relief, the people of Britannia grow increasingly fearful. After Constantine’s government collapsed on Britannia, was under attack. Stripped of her legions to provide troops for Constantine’s war, she was left with inadequate defended. Taking advantage of this weakness, Irish pirates, along with their Saxon counterparts, began a series of raids that will increase in frequency and severity as the years go by.
 
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For someone who's relatively new to this, it's good. Honorius will probably find a means to break hold of Sarus and Flavius Constantius' influence somewhere down the road. He did have Stilicho executed.
 
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