Aztecs and Incas surviving European contact = no Industrial Revolution?

That Cortez and his expedition all being killed would stall European colonization is probably a given. The question, then, is if it would stall them long enough for the native population to recover from smallpox. That's the key.

If the populations are still recovering when Europe decides to give it another shot, history probably proceeds as OTL. On the other hand, if their population recovers before Europe comes calling on the mainland again, that could possibly buy them enough time to reverse engineer European weaponry. If they can manage that, then Europe has no edge over the natives, and colonization of the Americas would probably never top Scramble for Africa levels.
 
That Cortez and his expedition all being killed would stall European colonization is probably a given. The question, then, is if it would stall them long enough for the native population to recover from smallpox. That's the key.

If the populations are still recovering when Europe decides to give it another shot, history probably proceeds as OTL. On the other hand, if their population recovers before Europe comes calling on the mainland again, that could possibly buy them enough time to reverse engineer European weaponry. If they can manage that, then Europe has no edge over the natives, and colonization of the Americas would probably never top Scramble for Africa levels.
In that scenario only Mesoamerica would gain resistance, if that. The prognosis for Old World diseases in the New World is not good and it requires continued contact, or a population large enough for the disease to keep circling around, for the native societies to build immunity.
 
That Cortez and his expedition all being killed would stall European colonization is probably a given. The question, then, is if it would stall them long enough for the native population to recover from smallpox. That's the key.

If the populations are still recovering when Europe decides to give it another shot, history probably proceeds as OTL. On the other hand, if their population recovers before Europe comes calling on the mainland again, that could possibly buy them enough time to reverse engineer European weaponry. If they can manage that, then Europe has no edge over the natives, and colonization of the Americas would probably never top Scramble for Africa levels.

The Amerinidans have a lot to learn and a relatively short time to do it. Reverse engineering something is still bloody hard when you dont even know what something is made out of. They are going to need European help to get it done fast enough and there is also the question of whether or not they will understand the dangers that they are facing. They may very well believe that they dont need the European weapons and go about their business as usual (ala Qing China).
 
-Did the horses survive the attempted Spanish conquest? If so that is a game changer for so much of the Native civilizations.
-Brazil will still colonize the mainland and eventually find the Inka but by then their civil war is over and they might stretch from Colombia to Chile and maybe to the Plata
-Mesoamerica continues as a series of city-states but still remains divided, though one might rise to dominate the region
-Mayan library survives and might eventually get transcribed in the West
-Spanish wars of 16th century are minimized, France dominates the scene and far fewer people are killed
-England still colonizes eastern coast of the continent
-Portugal rises to dominate trade from India and Asia with colonies far and wide
-Industrial Revolution still happens
 
-Spanish wars of 16th century are minimized, France dominates the scene and far fewer people are killed

Except that most of the funding for the Habsburg war effort came from taxes on Castile - four times that of the income from the New World at its height.

So barring butterflies and stuff, Spanish wars are not going to be minimized.
 
Except that most of the funding for the Habsburg war effort came from taxes on Castile - four times that of the income from the New World at its height.

So barring butterflies and stuff, Spanish wars are not going to be minimized.


Would you happen to know what the numbers were like?
 
Except that most of the funding for the Habsburg war effort came from taxes on Castile - four times that of the income from the New World at its height.

At the risk of sounding ignorant, wasn't Castile's wealth coming from the New World? It was Castile (as opposed to Aragon) that had colonial 'rights' to the Americas as I recall.
 
Would you happen to know what the numbers were like?

All figures according to The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers:

Between 1566 and 1654, the sum total from "the Indies" is 121 million ducats - with the height of American silver income being the 1560s to the 1630s*.

And my bad, New World gold and silver is "about one -quarter to one third" of the amount from Castile - so call it in the neighborhood of 400 million ducats from Castile in this period.

The Habsburg revenues from other parts of their domain (Sicily, for example) were considerably more fraught with local issues getting in the way of raising significant sums or those sums being available for projects outside the region itself and I don't have any exact figures for them.

For comparison to expenses, Charles V's campaign at Metz (1552) cost 2.5 million ducats, the expenses in the Netherlands in the period mentioned earlier (1560s-1630s) were at least 218 million ducats, and the Armada of 1588 is ten million.

So while we're talking considerable sums from the New World, the New World is at best an additional and much needed source of income to an overstretched state, not the mainstay of its finances.

*Around a quarter million ducats in the 1550s.
 
At the risk of sounding ignorant, wasn't Castile's wealth coming from the New World? It was Castile (as opposed to Aragon) that had colonial 'rights' to the Americas as I recall.

Income from Castile in this context is "taxes on peasants and merchants". So there may be some wealth from the New World involved, I suspect most of it is based on wool and similar - nothing exciting or glamorous.

I don't have specifics of how that breaks down, however.
 
All figures according to The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers:

Between 1566 and 1654, the sum total from "the Indies" is 121 million ducats - with the height of American silver income being the 1560s to the 1630s*.

And my bad, New World gold and silver is "about one -quarter to one third" of the amount from Castile - so call it in the neighborhood of 400 million ducats from Castile in this period.

The Habsburg revenues from other parts of their domain (Sicily, for example) were considerably more fraught with local issues getting in the way of raising significant sums or those sums being available for projects outside the region itself and I don't have any exact figures for them.

For comparison to expenses, Charles V's campaign at Metz (1552) cost 2.5 million ducats, the expenses in the Netherlands in the period mentioned earlier (1560s-1630s) were at least 218 million ducats, and the Armada of 1588 is ten million.

So while we're talking considerable sums from the New World, the New World is at best an additional and much needed source of income to an overstretched state, not the mainstay of its finances.

*Around a quarter million ducats in the 1550s.

Gotcha.

On a separate note, (and I think twovultures is hinting at this) since the taxes are being levied on peasants and merchants, wouldn't the inflation play a role in determining those numbers?

IIRC the Spanish economy as a whole, not just Castille, underwent severe inflation in the late 1500's but the way everyday prices turned out didn't really affect the economies of the colonies.
If that is the case, wouldn't the taxes levied on the merchants above all, be greater in Castille than in the New World, if back in the peninsula they could, arguably, make a greater profit for the same product (however trivial it might be)?

Same for the peasants selling their goods?
 
Gotcha.

On a separate note, (and I think twovultures is hinting at this) since the taxes are being levied on peasants and merchants, wouldn't the inflation play a role in determining those numbers?

IIRC the Spanish economy as a whole, not just Castille, underwent severe inflation in the late 1500's but the way everyday prices turned out didn't really affect the economies of the colonies.
If that is the case, wouldn't the taxes levied on the merchants above all, be greater in Castille than in the New World, if back in the peninsula they could, arguably, make a greater profit for the same product (however trivial it might be)?

Same for the peasants selling their goods?

I'm sure the inflation would determine the absolute numbers, but not the amount relative to New World gold and silver - and there's no mention of any significant income from the colonies outside gold and silver.

And why would income from taxes be greater via inflation?
 
I'm sure the inflation would determine the absolute numbers, but not the amount relative to New World gold and silver - and there's no mention of any significant income from the colonies outside gold and silver.

And why would income from taxes be greater via inflation?

I think that a definite answer in this regard would come from the original sources, where Rise and Fall got its numbers from. The way I see it, the information could come from colonial records of what’s being shipped off, or tax records from the peninsula. In any case:

What you basically have are separate economies, with one (the colonial) sending off tribute to the motherland.

During the XVI c. the “income” from the colonies would be shipped off in; “cobs,” the everyday coinage of the colonies and a terrible attempt at imitating the monies of the Peninsula; or in ingots. The lack of a consistent coinage operating on both sides of the pond with accurate weight and size standards might also affect some of the numbers.
Here’s where the funny math comes into play; let’s say that the Mexican authorities ship off 1000 ducats to Spain, from what they collected/minted. Upon arrival in Spain, the cargo would be melted down and reissued as actual coinage with the appropriate size and measurements. Now the money is in Spain, where inflation has escalated the prices. As a result, those same 1000 ducats now buy a lot less than they could have back in Mexico.
Dealing with merchants only, taxation would be proportional and at rates; not a set amount per product sold. If in 1500 a pair of shoes sold for 5 ducats, the government taxing at 20% could only get 1. With the inflation in 1550, a pair of shoes sells for 50 ducats; the revenue in tax would now be 10 ducats.

The difficulty here lies in realizing that the economies were not as heavily intertwined as they are today. The surplus of metals could affect Spain itself and its citizens; the tax code might not change, but the value of the money had. People paid more for goods with a devaluated currency, and the government, keeping taxing rates at a constant level, would get more ducats which had a decreased purchasing power in Europe, but were nominally still the same “currency” as that which came from the New World.

I do have to admit that the second half of my response is only speculation. But in terms of the absolute numbers, we’d have to know with certainty what the levels of inflation where in Spain itself, and the colonies.
 
Well, if the crown is getting X ducats of income "from the New World" and Y ducats of income "from Castile", inflation is messing with how much an individual ducat as minted is actually worth whatever the source is.

So if they ship off one thousand ducats of pure silver, the amount the treasury gets out of it is based on how many ducats that turns into, I would think.
 
Last edited:
-Did the horses survive the attempted Spanish conquest? If so that is a game changer for so much of the Native civilizations.
-Brazil will still colonize the mainland and eventually find the Inka but by then their civil war is over and they might stretch from Colombia to Chile and maybe to the Plata
-Mesoamerica continues as a series of city-states but still remains divided, though one might rise to dominate the region
-Mayan library survives and might eventually get transcribed in the West
-Spanish wars of 16th century are minimized, France dominates the scene and far fewer people are killed
-England still colonizes eastern coast of the continent
-Portugal rises to dominate trade from India and Asia with colonies far and wide
-Industrial Revolution still happens
Ang that would be more interesting to see..
 
Income from Castile in this context is "taxes on peasants and merchants". So there may be some wealth from the New World involved, I suspect most of it is based on wool and similar - nothing exciting or glamorous..

I wonder... I suspect that you are looking (or Kennedy rather) at the monarchy's Quinto, or actual share of New World silver. When you calculate the silver that ended up being used in the East Asian trade, or passed through private hands, I wonder if the results look different.
 
Top