Ayad Allawi Becomes Iraqi PM in 2010

CaliGuy

Banned
What if Ayad Allawi's bloc would have performed even better in the 2010 Iraqi elections, thus allowing him to become Iraq's Prime Minister again in 2010?
 
He actually received the most seats in the election 91 seats vs 88 seats for Maliki and should have had first stab at forming the government, but Maliki with US and Iranian backing sat on his ass for almost a year and managed to finally cobble together a govenment which was narrow, fragile and dependent on Sadr so when the SOFA talks started and they demanded parliamentary immunity he feared the Sadrists would bolt and break the government if he tried to force it though so he was trying to get the US to do it as an executive agreement. The US pulled out of talks and Iraq after.

We ended up returning about 100 SF advisers to Iraq after the 2012 election to again train CTS in Baghdad, but they were watching things already start to come apart.

Allawi winning would give Sunni Arabs more hope for the political process, but in the end there was too many jihadists flooding in from Syria, the Syrian civil war was revving up Iraqi Sunnis and the Iraqi Army had some major defects that needed a larger American presence behind the wire on the order of several thousand to help deal with.

In the end Allawi might delay the time that the enemy decides to start conventionally invading Iraq again into late 2014 or 2015 which would have a lot of repercussions for the Syrian civil war like the enemy consolidating the East, taking out the Syrian Kurdish enclave and perhaps taking much of Aleppo at the same time before they attack Iraq.

But, in the end they will invade Iraq and without real air support and with the units especially in Mosul being out of wack ethnographically and Fallujah being a restive hotbed it's a good chance Iraq starts being conquered.

However if the WH agrees to keep say 3-5K troops and some F16s in Iraq then they continue to use terrorism against Baghdad and their old Zarqawi era strategy which was the far better bet to win given most around the world didn't see the real evil behind what they were until they went conventional and they were no longer vague violence that Westerners could pass off as just a normal sectarian thing in the region that doesn't effect us.

Them going conventional in Iraq was ironically one of their bigger mistakes they have made over the years as it forced the West back in and united Iraqis and the world against an enemy in a way Zarqawi knew enough not to do.

In the end Allawi could have held things together for longer, but without larger Western help to Iraq then the WH was prepared to give the Syrian civil war spillover isn't going to not burn Iraq hard after IS took Eastern Syria.
 
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