Axis Middle Eastern offensive following a successful Operation Blue

A few months ago I did a thread https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...-goring-improve-the-german-war-effort.399279/ on the premise of some improvements in the German war effort which could follow Hitler dying in early 1942 to be succeeded by Goring. The relevant possibilities were that he would agree to reinforce Operation Paukenschlag with submarines which were held back by Hitler in OTL, setting back the Anglo-American war effort by some months as discussed here https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/paukenschlag-reinforced.370756/, authorize prioritizing taking Leningrad over Sevastopol (which was going to surrender soon anyway) which would be a major blow to the USSR and free hundreds of thousands of badly needed Axis troops as discussed here https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/operation-nordlicht-instead-of-störfang.398497/, and would stick to the plan for Case Blue, taking Stalingrad before its defenses could be reinforced as discussed in threads such as this one https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...nzer-not-diverted-to-the-don-crossing.400058/. The Soviet high command, it seems, might very well have responded to such setbacks with a hasty counteroffensive which would fail badly as a result of the 6th Army not being tied down fighting in Stalingrad, pushing the USSR into collapse and forcing Stalin or whoever to seek terms which would turn a rump USSR into an Axis vassal state.

In this scenario, Army Group North is transferred to France, to make completely sure a successful 1943 landing is out of the question and Army Group Center is kept as an occupation force/general reserve. With German prestige at new highs following the defeat of the Soviet Union, Goring negotiates an agreement with the Turkish government to allow German troops to pass through Turkey, similar to the previous Turkish offer back in 1941 when Hitler was attempting to aid the pro-Axis regime which had temporarily taken over Iraq. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German–Turkish_Non-Aggression_Pact The British 10th Army at this time consisted of five infantry divisions, an armored division, and a motorized brigade. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tenth_Army_(United_Kingdom) It is improbable, to say the least, that such a force could have withstood Army Group South. Any thoughts? (other than the usual "doesn't matter" while ignoring the points raised)
 

The transport links in turkey are totally inadequate to support anything like an army group. A panzer corps with some air support maybe. The British can fight that given they will have logistic and air superiority. The best trick would be let them come and then use a couple of commando squads or mossie squadrons to blow some of the turkish rail tunnels and cut them off completely.
 
(waiting for wiking and/or ObessedNuker to rofl-stomp this very well researched question) o_O

I looked before posting this thread and couldn't find anything on this scenario specifically.

The transport links in turkey are totally inadequate to support anything like an army group. A panzer corps with some air support maybe.

Army Group Center, consisting then of 1.7 million men including three tank armies, was successfully given enough supplies over the course of a few weeks in late August and September of 1941 to begin Operation Typhoon on 2 October. The stockpiling was conducted over one (sometimes two) railroads which were often washed out and entirely unusable due to rainfall and had been heavily damaged and denuded of rolling stock during the Soviet retreat (sources are The Wages of Destruction page 454 and the "Russian Roulette" chapter of Supplying War), neither of which would apply to the Turkish railroad network in this scenario.

It should also be noted that supply consumption is heavily dependent on the presence of the opposition due to varying rates of ammunition consumption. Here, due to the massive numerical disparity, huge chunks of Army Group South would be advancing against virtually no opposition and would as a result be consuming little to no ammunition, unlike during Operation Typhoon, which had initially to contend with Soviet forces totaling up to 1.4 million men and over 3,000 tanks. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Moscow

The British can fight that given they will have logistic and air superiority. The best trick would be let them come and then use a couple of commando squads or mossie squadrons to blow some of the turkish rail tunnels and cut them off completely.

The Luftwaffe, even after Stalingrad and months of relentless fighting with the USAAF and RAF over Germany, massed over 2,000 aircraft for Operation Citadel in the summer of 1943. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Kursk I very much doubt that the British had 3,000 or so aircraft sitting in Mesopotamia doing nothing.
 
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The Luftwaffe, even after Stalingrad and months of relentless fighting with the USAAF and RAF over Germany, massed over 2,000 aircraft for Operation Citadel in the summer of 1943. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Kursk I very much doubt that the British had 3,000 or so aircraft sitting in Mesopotamia doing nothing.
Well, no, but such a Luftwaffe build up in Turkey takes some time. The British will notice. The question, of course, becomes one of what can they do about it.
 
Well, no, but such a Luftwaffe build up in Turkey takes some time. The British will notice. The question, of course, becomes one of what can they do about it.

A Luftwaffe buildup in Turkey would not be necessary, the sheer extent to which the 10th Army is outnumbered would mean a mainly ground-based action with little participation by either sides' air forces would be fine for the Germans. That said, the nearest RAF force that I'm aware of, the Desert Air Force in North Africa, possessed a little over 1,500 combat aircraft. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Desert_Air_Force (it is true the wiki article on Kursk linked to above doesn't explicitly identity the over 2,000 German aircraft as "combat aircraft," but I've never read anything about non-combat aircraft being used in a substantial way by either side during Kursk) Even if it is assumed that both sides conduct an extensive prior buildup and the entirety of the DAF is shifted to Mesopotamia (which wouldn't be possible as it would mean ceding control of the air to the Luftwaffe in the Mediterranean) the British don't even reach parity.
 
[QUOTE="CrimsonKing, post: 13795644, member: 90338"[/QUOTE]

Ok, here is a good link.

http://militera.lib.ru/h/stolfi/11.html

Note that the Germans had the main double line to Smolensk running by mid late august. The density of the road and rail net in western Russia allowed for easy conversion, and varied road routes for running supply convoys. The germans also took a year, to add 8600 km to the existing rail net in Poland to build up for the jump off.

The mountains of Anatolia have no such support structure. There is one single track rail line, that goes through a number of highly vulnerable tunnels. This is supported by a much less developed road net.

Not only do the Germans have much less to work with, in your Op they have to get the men there before kick off. It will take 6 months just to build the infrastucture to that.

1.7 million is ridiculous.
 
Ok, here is a good link.

http://militera.lib.ru/h/stolfi/11.html

Note that the Germans had the main double line to Smolensk running by mid late august.

Which is exactly what I indicated, "successfully given enough supplies over the course of a few weeks in late August and September."

The density of the road and rail net in western Russia allowed for easy conversion,

And in Turkey, there would be even less conversion needed, because there was already a considerable amount of standard gauge track.

and varied road routes for running supply convoys. The germans also took a year, to add 8600 km to the existing rail net in Poland to build up for the jump off.

Against an army consisting of 5.5 million+ men and enormous quantities of all categories of weapons, not a handful of garrison divisions.

The mountains of Anatolia have no such support structure. There is one single track rail line, that goes through a number of highly vulnerable tunnels.

"As with other countries, rapid expansion followed; by 1922 over 8000 km of lines had been constructed in the Ottoman Empire.[note 1] At the birth of the Republic of Turkey in 1923, there were 3,660 km of standard gauge lines, of which 1,378 km were state-owned; while the lines owned by foreign investors were eventually nationalized starting from 1927. The railways were considered an essential part of the state by the government of the Republic, and continued to expand with new railway projects - over 3000 km of new tracks were built in Turkey between 1923 and 1940." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rail_transport_in_Turkey

This is supported by a much less developed road net. Not only do the Germans have much less to work with, in your Op they have to get the men there before kick off. It will take 6 months just to build the infrastucture to that.

1.7 million is ridiculous.

The USSR's "road net" at the time of WWII consisted of dirt tracks supplemented by a single paved road.
 
What would be the economic and political impact to the British war effort of losing the Middle East? What would happen in India, for example?
 
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