Axis Germany-Spain-China (How To?)

How to achieve a recognizable WW2 with Axis of Germany-Spain-KMT China?

(Italy moved to neutral column, at least during initial phase of the war, Japan can move to either side, remain neutral or run parallel war)

the POD for Spain might be a quick coup by Nationalists in 1936, with no Spanish Civil War (or rather the POD for Spain would have to be no Spanish Civil War)

China would be very difficult, my scenario is that they develop a modest air force (something equipped with German HS-123s or similar) and are able to extract at least a heavy price from Japan if/when they cross into China proper.
 
there are numerous threads on Axis Spain and all cite the civil war precluding any military pluses for Axis side? that would not be the same if they still had their huge treasury and intact military?
 
Well, any alliance that has China as part of it will, almost automatically, have Japan as an enemy. Unless China gives Japan MAJOR concessions and plays second fiddle to Japan.
Also, if China is controlled by the nationalists, then there is a HUGE corruption issue that will sap China’s ability to fight a war effectively.
 

Deleted member 1487

there are numerous threads on Axis Spain and all cite the civil war precluding any military pluses for Axis side? that would not be the same if they still had their huge treasury and intact military?
For Spain it would certainly help if they got more breaks during the SCW and they won sooner with less destruction in the country. Perhaps they get really lucky and have intel about the Soviets taking the treasury to Moscow and German patrol ships intercept the convoy. That would help Nationalist Spain A LOT
 
For Spain it would certainly help if they got more breaks during the SCW and they won sooner with less destruction in the country. Perhaps they get really lucky and have intel about the Soviets taking the treasury to Moscow and German patrol ships intercept the convoy. That would help Nationalist Spain A LOT

Alternatively, just have the initial Coup attempt succeed and have the legitiment government willingly step aside in a "State ofEmergency" to grant the Fascists control over the tools of the state and support of the politically undecided/unpartisan loyalists and undecided military units. The Communist backlash/uprising, likely scattered violent and radical it would be, would serve as a retroactive justifacion in people's eyes with a little media spin.

Keeping Italy neutral if Mussolini is still in charge is the dicey part, in my opinion. The man, to paraphrase Roosevelt, always thought the best course of action was to do something and the worst thing to do was nothing, to say nothing of needing to be seen as picking a side in order to insure access to strategic material in quantities needed for their industries and military ventures. Maybe France and GB strike a deal over Ethiopia and Yugoslavia/the Balkans?
 
For Spain it would certainly help if they got more breaks during the SCW and they won sooner with less destruction in the country. Perhaps they get really lucky and have intel about the Soviets taking the treasury to Moscow and German patrol ships intercept the convoy. That would help Nationalist Spain A LOT

Alternatively, just have the initial Coup attempt succeed and have the legitiment government willingly step aside in a "State ofEmergency" to grant the Fascists control over the tools of the state and support of the politically undecided/unpartisan loyalists and undecided military units. The Communist backlash/uprising, likely scattered violent and radical it would be, would serve as a retroactive justifacion in people's eyes with a little media spin.

had in mind that it would almost be necessary to retain the treasury? that and a quick coup were basis of my own POD, further afield for the regime to want to take over Portugal and her empire? (meaning coup in 1936, moves on Portugal during the war, not all at once)
 
Well, any alliance that has China as part of it will, almost automatically, have Japan as an enemy. Unless China gives Japan MAJOR concessions and plays second fiddle to Japan.
Also, if China is controlled by the nationalists, then there is a HUGE corruption issue that will sap China’s ability to fight a war effectively.

maybe USSR battles Japan for a bit longer in 1939? or my desired POD and Chinese surprise Japan in 1937? not sure if it is plausible for them to retain Shanghai but possibly turn it into Pyrrhic victory for Japanese? China had ordered u-boats and they historically tried to bomb the Japanese flagship at Shanghai, so a lucky strike from either of those avenues and nasty naval loss.

also under this scenario the Spanish Civil War does not occur or ends quickly and a corps of "volunteers" could be on the scene (of course smaller in number, likely, than present in Spain but still significant)

Keeping Italy neutral if Mussolini is still in charge is the dicey part, in my opinion. The man, to paraphrase Roosevelt, always thought the best course of action was to do something and the worst thing to do was nothing, to say nothing of needing to be seen as picking a side in order to insure access to strategic material in quantities needed for their industries and military ventures. Maybe France and GB strike a deal over Ethiopia and Yugoslavia/the Balkans?

IF there is no Spanish Civil War to compare with historical? there is no real affinity developed between Germany and Italy, they do not need to be hostile but the OTL relations would not be there?

IF a Vichy regime or similar is established, along with Spain being involved (to whatever degree) in invasion of France? Italy might be in a snit over not gaining their desired territories?
 

Deleted member 1487

had in mind that it would almost be necessary to retain the treasury? that and a quick coup were basis of my own POD, further afield for the regime to want to take over Portugal and her empire? (meaning coup in 1936, moves on Portugal during the war, not all at once)
Portugal maybe, Empire is going to be impossible as far as I can see.
 
had in mind that it would almost be necessary to retain the treasury? that and a quick coup were basis of my own POD, further afield for the regime to want to take over Portugal and her empire? (meaning coup in 1936, moves on Portugal during the war, not all at once)

A quick coup would allow them to retain the treasury, easy. But the invasion of Portugal? They're a natural ideological ally, also being under a Catholic-Conservative military dictatorship.
 
Portugal maybe, Empire is going to be impossible as far as I can see.

A quick coup would allow them to retain the treasury, easy. But the invasion of Portugal? They're a natural ideological ally, also being under a Catholic-Conservative military dictatorship.

impossible to capture during wartime, other than Portugal and a few odd islands, but it offers a negotiated end to the war? if they are not fighting over British territories other than Gibraltar?

but the more realistic part, a quick coup and no loss of their treasure, no need for Germany to loan monies to Nationalist regime, a move on tungsten mines in Portugal (and whole country if they resist.) the whole finances of Axis are different.
 
impossible to capture during wartime, other than Portugal and a few odd islands, but it offers a negotiated end to the war? if they are not fighting over British territories other than Gibraltar?

but the more realistic part, a quick coup and no loss of their treasure, no need for Germany to loan monies to Nationalist regime, a move on tungsten mines in Portugal (and whole country if they resist.) the whole finances of Axis are different.

... Or they could just trade/buy the tungsten and not invade Portugal for no reason, driving them into the arms of their long-time British ally when in all likelihood they'd be more than happy to co-operate with the Axis in terms of commerce. I mean, Germany needed oil but that diden't mean their first thought was "invade Romania and seize the oil wells by force!". They got a provided support for a friendly regieme and made contracts, because when you CAN strike a long-term deal for peaceful trade its alot less costly and provides a steadier flower of resources than rape and plunder.
 
... Or they could just trade/buy the tungsten and not invade Portugal for no reason, driving them into the arms of their long-time British ally when in all likelihood they'd be more than happy to co-operate with the Axis in terms of commerce. I mean, Germany needed oil but that diden't mean their first thought was "invade Romania and seize the oil wells by force!". They got a provided support for a friendly regieme and made contracts, because when you CAN strike a long-term deal for peaceful trade its alot less costly and provides a steadier flower of resources than rape and plunder.

understand your point but a Nationalist regime in Spain might desire to unite Iberia and think themselves more deserving of colonial empire than Portugal? Germany did not try to establish a "common market" with Austria after all. the main tungsten mine is also near the border which makes it even more appetizing target. (and OTL they actually had to pay in gold for it, IIRC something approx. 200m US)

(btw read War for Oil, Nazi quest for an Oil Empire and oilfields of Romania were considered almost a German resource, not just by Nazis, they DID plan on seizing them if necessary)
 
understand your point but a Nationalist regime in Spain might desire to unite Iberia and think themselves more deserving of colonial empire than Portugal? Germany did not try to establish a "common market" with Austria after all. the main tungsten mine is also near the border which makes it even more appetizing target. (and OTL they actually had to pay in gold for it, IIRC something approx. 200m US)

(btw read War for Oil, Nazi quest for an Oil Empire and oilfields of Romania were considered almost a German resource, not just by Nazis, they DID plan on seizing them if necessary)

The Austrians by and large wanted to join Germany and considered themselves German. It was the Austro Fascists who were fighting AGAINST this Pan-German sentiment and convince the population to be Austrian Nationalists, and even that had to be spun as them being "Better Germans". And yes, the Germans were prepared to seize the mines IF NECESSARY; they were a vital strategic resource, after all, but they diden't have to because they finagled the supply peacefully. And it resulted in getting the output undamaged, Romanian military support during the war, ect.

For the invasion of Portugal... do you honestly think the military action required to take and hold the mine (Which would ultimately require a conquest of Portugal) plus the cost to operate it isen't going to cost more than 200 million USD? To say nothing of the diplomatic bad-boy points you'll be getting for such an action: in the event of a successful qucik coup back by the legitiment government, the Spainards are probably still going to have access to the international market where they can actually make use of their gold/treasury (Fat lot of good saving it does you if you can't exchange your commercial paper for something actually useful in war), especially from raw-resource glutted and market-starved South America. Invade Portugal and US influence is going to be slamming that door shut.

And before you say "They can just conduct a quick, splended campaign to seize the mine"... no, Portugal would seek international assistance, particularly from GB, and fight back. This would cost more Spainish lives and money directly to defend and police the areas, to say nothing of the rise in cost of production of sabotage/infastructure damage/collaterial damage from battles in the area as the Portugese struggle to regain their country (At minimum, they'll be bombing you with whatever they can muster).

As for uniting Iberia and wanting a larger colonial Empire... sure some elements of the country might. But the classical conservative elements and corperatists in the Right-Wing coahalition that was the Fascist regime? Not against their ideological mirror in the former case or at that cost for the later. The Carlists don't care, the Liberals-Old Government Centerists who're going to be sticking around if you want to pull off the quick coup and subsequent quick reassertion of control over the state and crackdown on the Communists to prevent a civil war/police action of a fair scale don't want to. Not all Right-Wing elements of the era were Imperialists/Autarkey focused; in Spain the legitimate "Nazis" (or as close as you're getting) are the Falangists, who are more anti-Communists and domestic-focused than expansionist like the Italians and Germans were, and are vastly out-numbered and out-organized by the more numerous/better armed/better respected military establishment who were the glue that held everything together. Good luck having that minority manage to get their way.
 
And yes, the Germans were prepared to seize the mines IF NECESSARY; they were a vital strategic resource, after all, but they diden't have to because they finagled the supply peacefully. And it resulted in getting the output undamaged, Romanian military support during the war, ect.

peacefully? after the birds of prey took over a third of the country? looked set to take more. about a year after assassinating the prime minister and ushering the King out? peacefully

For the invasion of Portugal... do you honestly think the military action required to take and hold the mine (Which would ultimately require a conquest of Portugal) plus the cost to operate it isen't going to cost more than 200 million USD? To say nothing of the diplomatic bad-boy points you'll be getting for such an action

And before you say "They can just conduct a quick, splended campaign to seize the mine"... no, Portugal would seek international assistance, particularly from GB, and fight back. This would cost more Spainish lives and money directly to defend and police the areas, to say nothing of the rise in cost of production of sabotage/infastructure damage/collaterial damage from battles in the area as the Portugese struggle to regain their country (At minimum, they'll be bombing you with whatever they can muster).

remarkable as their plan historically was to evacuate the government to the Azores against a much weaker Nationalist Spain?
 
on the Pacific side, if the fall of France resulted in a Vichy regime or similar an Axis China could collaborate with Vichy Indochina? one of the reasons Japanese moved on Indochina was supplies flowing to China

not that KMT China would have troops to spare to defend all of Indochina (or desire to do so) but they could assist in the north and would at least present much more of challenge to Japan.

not sure what Germany could have done to bolster Chinese forces? historically they had less than 1,000 artillery pieces in whole of China, maybe mortars and Neberlwerfer the easiest to produce in volume, given difficulty fabricating artillery barrels?
 
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