Probably more to the point: What does *Hitler* do next?
Don't think how. The Russians agree to a ceasefire after getting seriously mauled somehow. What does the Axis do next?
It depends a lot on the
when. With Stalin at the rudder I don't think even a Soviet cease-fire is realistic. The Germans could have a de facto win, if they take Moscow in 1942 as per the lines of Dale Cozort's
excellent scenario, but the Soviets would probably just 'wither away' -- further into Siberia -- until they were ready to try to attack again, in some capacity. Hitler would have to keep a LOT of men and materiél in the East, not only to control the vast occupied zones against fanatical partisans but also as a buffer against renewed Soviet attacks, however much weaker they may be.
As always, when we talk about 'what the Nazis do' there is a rational answer and a more logical answer. If I was in charge I'd dig in with a minimum of troops, treat the civilian population nicely and boost the Luftwaffe to no end if nothing else then to annoy the 'Victorious Nazi-Germany always goes down in nuclear flames a year later'-crowd :-D
But with Hitler ... I think he's actually going to screw things up even more IF he wins, by any imaginable definition (such as Soviet collapse after German win at Moscow/Leningrad/Stalingrad). The short-term prospects look good: Lots of resources and plenty of slave-labor. But that would make the Führer's already megalomaniacal ego explode! Think about how much power he kept gaining vis-a-vis his generals after each succesful military gamble in the past!
A Hitler who is victorious on the continent after late 1942 will feel virtually untouchable, despite the Heer having bled white on the Russian steppes to give him that - last - victory. He will probably not be wacko (or powerful) enough to try a Sealion 1943 without the intervention of ASB's, but anything less insane than that caper that is very likely now to be next on Hitler's To Do-List, methinks:
- Give Rommel a new army and send him deep into the Middle-East to get bogged down in Iraq and then spread German logistics out to almost atomic thin-ness ...
- Throw more resources (which they still don't have) into developing new 'Wunderwaffen' - like more jets that won't really make a difference because there probably isn't time enough to train pilots to fly them before they are shot down ... and they will be outnumbered anyway - at least if the Luftwaffe tries to have another go at Britain (bolstered by - or allied with - the US). There might be some short-term victories when the first jets begin to roam the skies over London, but the Brits (again supported by the US) will be right behind in terms of getting up some jets (and more planes) of their own ...
- Maybe he'd give the Kriegsmarine a carrier or a new battleship just to show off against the RN and the USN ... and get the 'Yamato-treatment' somewhere in the Atlantic?
- Throw his weight around in Spain (Gibraltar) or Turkey (slightly better access to Mid-East oil/seal off Mediterranean and Black Sea) ... and end up with another sink for troops once the Allies decide to open up a second front. Of course, it will apply to the Allies as well (most likely in Spain), but if the US comes aboard they will have 10 times as many troops to fill the sink.
Which begs the question ...
the crucial question ... will Hitler still declare war on the US if he is winning the Battle of Moscow in December 1941?
The smart thing would be not to do it, try to treat the Slav(e)s more nicely to keep them in check, starve out Britain (if possible) with a new U-boat campaign, secure gains, pour development into Luftwaffe, long-range rockets and nukes and hopefully make the US think twice about trying to 'liberate' Europe with an extended D-Day bolstered by tactical nukes in 1944-45-ish, once they have Japan by the b*lls.
But Hitler would declare war anyway ... I'm 90% sure of this. He was not doing too well in December 1941, when those Siberian reinforcements began to trickle in and the Germans discovered that it's a bad idea to fight a winter war without winter uniforms, and still he followed up Pearl Harbor with a declaration of war against the US. If he is doing just slightly better in this TL and Panzers roll into Moscow in the spring of 1942, well, then ... he'd not hold back against the US.
So maybe it comes down to the same thing - Germany vs. the US in the mid-40s, with or without a declaration of war ... but German success is only remotely possible if Hitler stays away from the US and tries to secure his gains in Europe.
And a 'Hitler staying away from opponent to secure gains'-scenario is just, well, not possible ...
Thoughts? Comments?