Axis evacuates Tunisia March 1943

When Rommel visits Hitler at his headquarters after beginning sick leave in March 1943, Rommel requests evacuation of Africa, OTL of course Hitler does not do this but continues to commit additional forces to Tunisia. What if Hitler agreed to the evacuation.

Would the extra forces evacuated or just not committed at that point be enough to seriously contest an Allied invasion of southern Europe for the rest of 1943????

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OTL until this point, the campaign in Tunisia wasn't so bad for the Germans, it kept the Allies piddling around in North Africa for months far away from anything terribly important to Germany.

Hitler underestimating the Allied build up, thought he could hold the place for a long time, keeping the Allies occupied for many more months, which of course didn't work out so well OTL.

So what could the Axis have gotten out if they tried evacuation???? The planes and Siebel ferries would only be bringing supplies in, and only taking troops out. At the very least you would have the extra troops and equipment not committed to Tunisia in April OTL now available for Sicily.

I am thinking though you could get about 50,000 men in April 43 out without heavy equipment, flying the transports at night, using destroyers on fast night runs, and using MFPs and Siebel ferries which were hard for the Allies to intercept generally due to their shallow drafts, flak protection, and decent quanity.
 
well, one the one hand, the allies are a few months ahead, which is about the only thing going for them.

On the other hand, the axis will avoid the loss of a quarter of a million men, along with the tons of equipment captured (including 600+ aircraft) or destroyed. Among these were probably Italy's best formations (which performed reasonably well on occasion) and officers (men like Messe) as well as the elite afrika korps veterans (what was left of them anyway). The Luftwaffe would not be forced into a grinding attritional battle, sparing the 1000+ aircraft that were shot down. Of equal importance, the americans get little to no experience out of the whole thing, and Fredenhall remains in command. All of these might lead to an allied disaster once they go for Sicily.
 
Assuming that the Axis manage to evacuate a large enough proportion of their troops (with or without equipment), this should put them in a significantly better position in the following months. I'm not saying that the Axis will win the war or anything like that, but their position will be improved at least in the short run. Especially the Western allies will have difficulties with attempting a landing in Europe since now there isn't anymore a "soft underbelly" of Europe since the veterans of Africa are now guarding it. If they want a landing in 1943 they have to attempt a now much riskier attack against Italy or an equally risky early invasion of France. And the Germans won't need to detach any troops from the Eastern Front to repel the Allied attack. In the end, the chances that an allied landing in 1943 would be repelled are increased, and after this the Axis powers will get a chance to catch their breath, at least in the West.
 
When Rommel visits Hitler at his headquarters after beginning sick leave in March 1943, Rommel requests evacuation of Africa, OTL of course Hitler does not do this but continues to commit additional forces to Tunisia. What if Hitler agreed to the evacuation.

Would the extra forces evacuated or just not committed at that point be enough to seriously contest an Allied invasion of southern Europe for the rest of 1943????

-----------------------------

OTL until this point, the campaign in Tunisia wasn't so bad for the Germans, it kept the Allies piddling around in North Africa for months far away from anything terribly important to Germany.

Hitler underestimating the Allied build up, thought he could hold the place for a long time, keeping the Allies occupied for many more months, which of course didn't work out so well OTL.

So what could the Axis have gotten out if they tried evacuation???? The planes and Siebel ferries would only be bringing supplies in, and only taking troops out. At the very least you would have the extra troops and equipment not committed to Tunisia in April OTL now available for Sicily.

I am thinking though you could get about 50,000 men in April 43 out without heavy equipment, flying the transports at night, using destroyers on fast night runs, and using MFPs and Siebel ferries which were hard for the Allies to intercept generally due to their shallow drafts, flak protection, and decent quanity.

It depends on how the Allies react.

Do they sit and watch?

The chances are the Allied offensives that were already starting to open in March are going to do better because the Axis are withdrawing troops and equipment on a daily basis. There isn't going to be a Dunkirk because the Allies will have command of the sea and as the Axis withdraw they're going to lose airfields to the Allies.

IMO maybe 50-75,000 could conceivably escape. The Germans and Italians would have to agree the ratio of Germans to Italians but it would be mostly the Italian Navy's responsibility.

You would probably see a final end 2-3 weeks earlier than OTL. The Allies would still stick to their plan ( I don't think the Allies planned on the Axis staying until they were all killed or captured).

Sicily is a harder fight and lasts longer but the outcome is the same. By about Sept/Oct '43 the war would look pretty much the same as OTL.
 
oops, just noticed you said March 1943. In this case, not that much changes. I thought it was about no Tunisia at all. sry
 
It depends on how the Allies react.

You would probably see a final end 2-3 weeks earlier than OTL. The Allies would still stick to their plan ( I don't think the Allies planned on the Axis staying until they were all killed or captured).

I wonder if Africa could hold out just as long as OTL. Assuming the Axis defence was supply constrained in OTL April 43 more than manpower constrained and the planes and ships are bringing in supply before pulling out troops the actual combat power may not be much reduced during the initial pullouts.

And if the Axis do such things like withdraw from the Mareth Line to the Wadi Akarit in preparation of the pull out to shorten the lines and so avoid the Mareth battle it would also help compensate.

Also wondering if morale would be better at the end if evacuation was a real possibility.
 
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