Something I’ve long wondered about is the status of the minor axis and allied powers in and around the Balkans during World War II.
Between the summer of 1940 and the summer of 1941, all five remaining neutral nations in or near the Balkans (Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Yugoslavia and Greece) went from neutrality to joining either the Axis or the Allies (and in the case of Yugoslavia and Greece joining the Allies – then being militarily defeated by the Axis).
I’ve often wondered what would happen if the dice landed differently. Taking a recent thread, someone suggested that it might be possible that Romania joins the Allies about the same time Yugoslavia and Greece were also still fighting the Axis, causing major problems for the Axis.
The overall result of World War 2 I cannot see changing. The Axis are still going to lose, even if both Yugoslavia and Greece joined the Axis as well as the other three.
Of the five of them:
Hungary
Was always likely to join the Axis. Territory gained from Czechoslovakia, Romania (both supported by Germany) and Yugoslavia means the likelihood of Horthy deciding to stay neutral (or even join the Allies) is practically non-existent. Shame really. It’d be interesting to see a WWII with a neutral Hungary.
Romania
A contender for an allied member if you ask me. Never understood why they kept accepting all the territorial losses to the Axis. Hungary and Bulgaria both get bits along with the Soviet Union. Of course, it was probably pragmatism that ruled the day and saw them join the Axis in the hope of regaining Bessarabia (and maybe even Transylvania eventually). With historic friendly relations with both France and Poland, I can certainly see a situation where Romania joins the Allies.
Of course, that might not count for much in the end – overrun by the Germans for doing so, and then the Soviet Union later in the war. The fact that they were (in this TL) an ‘Ally’ means little to the Soviets and they end up Communist anyway.
Perhaps a neutral Romania is best for them?
Bulgaria
A very much Russophile country but with Boris as a Germanphile King, and with claims against Yugoslavia, Greece, Romania (and Turkey) joining the victorious Axis seemed a smart thing to do.
Never did DOW the Soviets, but it helped them not at all.
A few more possibilities here – Could they stay neutral? Could they fully commit to the Axis and send troops to fight the Soviets? Could they even try and join the Allies?
Yugoslavia
Would’ve been an Axis member, in fact, I think actually was one but then there was the pro-British coup and the rest is history. Invaded by Germany and then quickly defeated.
The very nature of the country makes it hard whichever side they ended up on. The Serbs were pro-Allied, the Croats pro-Axis. Maybe a neutral path would’ve been best, if Germany (and Italy) could tolerate it.
Greece
Very easy to keep them neutral (have Italy leave well alone). Could they have been convinced to join the Axis (perhaps offering parts of Yugoslavian Macedonia in a dismemberment strategy)?
How would the Allies deal with an Axis Greece in the Med?