This is maybe a little thought exercise buuuut . . . It all starts with an alternate National Socialist party. It's similar to the one we know in a broad strokes sense, but has a few interesting differences. They aren't rabidly anti-semitic and don't delude themselves into thinking they could conquer the Soviet Union.
(If you must, call it NINO Germany or Nazi In Name Only Germany. I really don't want to get in to an argument about it being impossible for the Nazis to be anything but anti-semitic and anti-Soviet.)
Certain events still happen. Anschluss occurs. They take the Sudenland and eventually gobble up the Czech portion of Czechoslovakia. First difference would be that instead of a puppet Slovakia, Hungary ends up annexing Slovakia.
This TL has it's own version of a Molotov-Ribbentrop pact. Maybe appeasement lasts a little longer for whatever reason. Maybe they launch a much more successful version of whatever the hell they would call Operation Himmler TTL. But for whatever reason, France and Great Britain don't declare war when Poland is invaded.
As a little tweak, the Germans are more or less as successful as they were OTL so get a slightly bigger piece of Poland than originally agreed upon . . . And because they don't have to worry about war with the Allies maybe they still get to claim Lithuania.
Soviets still claim Estonia and Latvia. They still claim Besserabia. They still have a winter war that ends with them claiming Kerelia.
Another difference that crops up, maybe with German interference since Hungary got to gobble Slovakia . . . Hungary doesn't take a nibble out of Romania. Without that precedent, Bulgaria doesn't take their little nibble either. Thus Romania only loses Beserabia in TTL.
I think that's enough for Europe so let's hit Asia.
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This Germany doesn't plan on invading the Soviet Union so they aren't overly concerned with finding an Asian ally who can attack the Soviets. This means that Germany is rather friendly with China and doesn't abandon them.
So Chang Kai Shek is still receiving aid, training, advisors, etc etc from the Germans.
There's no great conflagration to distract anyone's attention from Asia. Japan finds itself in a bit of a pinch. Maybe thanks to continued German assistance China is doing a bit better when Japan tries to gobble up more Chinese territory.
This and embargoes and the like lead Japan to, with extreme reluctance and resentment, agree to leave China alone because they need that precious crude and they really can't risk everyone coming down on them at the same time.
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A recap.
Germany is as big as it was OTL after the fall of Poland but has also annexed Lithuania.
Hungary annexed Slovakia but didn't get that piece of Romania. (I think that was Transylvania?)
Bulgaria didn't get their piece of Romania either.
Italy is just going to have to make do with Libya, Ethiopia, and Albania.
Spain still ended up under Franco's control.
Japan was basically forced to be happy with holding Manchuria, Korea, Taiwan, and whatever else they had at the time in the Pacific.
China continues to receive aid from Germany and the two are quite friendly.
The Soviets took Besarabia, Estonia, Latvia, and Karelia.
World War Two did NOT happen.
Maybe an Axis still exists as a kind of defensive pact between most of the nations that would be part of it OTL. (They agree to support each other if the Soviets attack them but don't deliberately seek war with the Soviet Union.)
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Now taking all of this information into account . . . . How does the world develop in this WW2-less TL?
What happens when America doesn't have all the benefits of the Lend Lease scenario or seeing Europe decimated while they remain unscathed . . . Removing that America-Soviet Union competition and the super power concept?
How does Europe grow and change? How long can the European powers hold onto their colonies without WW2? What happens in a Fascist Germany that doesn't hate Jews, put down "Jewish science", or concern itself with any master race bullshit?
What happens in Asia? Can the Nationalist defeat the Communists this time around? Will Japan be able to hold onto Manchuria, Korea, and Taiwan? Can it "Japanify" them?
Would their eventually be some kind of three way ideological struggle between Fascism, Communism, and Democracy that occurs through proxy wars and the like? Or no Cold War style shenanigans whatsoever?
As for ASB stuff . . . I do think that European situation is possible. But I'm less sure about Japan giving up and not suicidally lashing out at everyone.
But for the purposes of ideas on how this world would function, I'd like to avoid the Pacific Theater too.
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And one final thought . . . How do you think a Germany not under the control of Hitler and those who thought like him be lead?
Closer in style to Mussolini's Italy or Franco's Spain? Maybe the leader goes on to claim he's just a regent for Germany's royal family and claims he will restore the monarchy to power when Germany is ready but never quite relinquishes his power . . . (So it could be a few decades before any monarch resumes control. Assuming that happens or things don't turn out the way Spain did when Franco died.)