Avoiding World War Two

This is maybe a little thought exercise buuuut . . . It all starts with an alternate National Socialist party. It's similar to the one we know in a broad strokes sense, but has a few interesting differences. They aren't rabidly anti-semitic and don't delude themselves into thinking they could conquer the Soviet Union.

(If you must, call it NINO Germany or Nazi In Name Only Germany. I really don't want to get in to an argument about it being impossible for the Nazis to be anything but anti-semitic and anti-Soviet.)

Certain events still happen. Anschluss occurs. They take the Sudenland and eventually gobble up the Czech portion of Czechoslovakia. First difference would be that instead of a puppet Slovakia, Hungary ends up annexing Slovakia.

This TL has it's own version of a Molotov-Ribbentrop pact. Maybe appeasement lasts a little longer for whatever reason. Maybe they launch a much more successful version of whatever the hell they would call Operation Himmler TTL. But for whatever reason, France and Great Britain don't declare war when Poland is invaded.

As a little tweak, the Germans are more or less as successful as they were OTL so get a slightly bigger piece of Poland than originally agreed upon . . . And because they don't have to worry about war with the Allies maybe they still get to claim Lithuania.

Soviets still claim Estonia and Latvia. They still claim Besserabia. They still have a winter war that ends with them claiming Kerelia.

Another difference that crops up, maybe with German interference since Hungary got to gobble Slovakia . . . Hungary doesn't take a nibble out of Romania. Without that precedent, Bulgaria doesn't take their little nibble either. Thus Romania only loses Beserabia in TTL.

I think that's enough for Europe so let's hit Asia.

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This Germany doesn't plan on invading the Soviet Union so they aren't overly concerned with finding an Asian ally who can attack the Soviets. This means that Germany is rather friendly with China and doesn't abandon them.

So Chang Kai Shek is still receiving aid, training, advisors, etc etc from the Germans.

There's no great conflagration to distract anyone's attention from Asia. Japan finds itself in a bit of a pinch. Maybe thanks to continued German assistance China is doing a bit better when Japan tries to gobble up more Chinese territory.

This and embargoes and the like lead Japan to, with extreme reluctance and resentment, agree to leave China alone because they need that precious crude and they really can't risk everyone coming down on them at the same time.

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A recap.

Germany is as big as it was OTL after the fall of Poland but has also annexed Lithuania.

Hungary annexed Slovakia but didn't get that piece of Romania. (I think that was Transylvania?)

Bulgaria didn't get their piece of Romania either.

Italy is just going to have to make do with Libya, Ethiopia, and Albania.

Spain still ended up under Franco's control.

Japan was basically forced to be happy with holding Manchuria, Korea, Taiwan, and whatever else they had at the time in the Pacific.

China continues to receive aid from Germany and the two are quite friendly.

The Soviets took Besarabia, Estonia, Latvia, and Karelia.

World War Two did NOT happen.

Maybe an Axis still exists as a kind of defensive pact between most of the nations that would be part of it OTL. (They agree to support each other if the Soviets attack them but don't deliberately seek war with the Soviet Union.)

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Now taking all of this information into account . . . . How does the world develop in this WW2-less TL?

What happens when America doesn't have all the benefits of the Lend Lease scenario or seeing Europe decimated while they remain unscathed . . . Removing that America-Soviet Union competition and the super power concept?

How does Europe grow and change? How long can the European powers hold onto their colonies without WW2? What happens in a Fascist Germany that doesn't hate Jews, put down "Jewish science", or concern itself with any master race bullshit?

What happens in Asia? Can the Nationalist defeat the Communists this time around? Will Japan be able to hold onto Manchuria, Korea, and Taiwan? Can it "Japanify" them?

Would their eventually be some kind of three way ideological struggle between Fascism, Communism, and Democracy that occurs through proxy wars and the like? Or no Cold War style shenanigans whatsoever?

As for ASB stuff . . . I do think that European situation is possible. But I'm less sure about Japan giving up and not suicidally lashing out at everyone.

But for the purposes of ideas on how this world would function, I'd like to avoid the Pacific Theater too.

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And one final thought . . . How do you think a Germany not under the control of Hitler and those who thought like him be lead?

Closer in style to Mussolini's Italy or Franco's Spain? Maybe the leader goes on to claim he's just a regent for Germany's royal family and claims he will restore the monarchy to power when Germany is ready but never quite relinquishes his power . . . (So it could be a few decades before any monarch resumes control. Assuming that happens or things don't turn out the way Spain did when Franco died.)
 
Your assumption that a cuddlier Nazi party would be allowed to get away with all that is ASB.
While the fact that France and Britain couldn't trust Hitler was part of their reason for finally going to war, the build up was due to German reamament and territorial aggression. You still have this, so the UK and France have just as much reason to go to war as they did in OTL.

I'll ignore for the moment the issues a cuddly Nazi party would have with the measures they needed to build up their armaments while keeping the economy from collapsing...
 
ASB since germany and soviets eventually come in conflict no matter what imo, even in as ridiculously implausible a scenario as this. Even if they don't, German economy would collapse without further conquest
 
IMHO, you cannot have Germany gobble up Austria, the Sudetenland, Czech land AND Poland and not have WW2.

At the end of the Sudetenland crisis, when Hitler invades the Czech rump, both France and Britain realize it's war sooner or later. Now if you have Germany getting Sudetenland and leaving the rest of Czech lands exist independently, then maybe you'd have Britain and France ready to agree to another Munich conference to adjust Poland's western border (but not watch idly by as the Reich conquers and annexes Poland).
 
The USSR is still going to invade Germany circa 1942/1943. Stalin was planning for this LONG before the M-R pact.

Japan is going to continue expanding until they self-destruct or, more likely, attack the US/UK and get hammered... and the longer Japan waits, the worse the war goes for them once it starts.

You need an earlier or more radical PoD to avoid WWII.
 
In my opinion, you can have a cuddlier, or as I would put it, saner NS-party; but the international scenario you posit is a) not avoiding WW2 and b) still be wildly expansionist!

Now there were elements within the party which argued that a National Socialist Germany should before all be isolationist in order to not taint the fragile genetic heritage of the Germans by exposing them to too many Slavs etc., as is inevitable if conquering/enslaving them. One could imagine this train of thought to be dominant within the party under a different leader. You can certainly not change Hitler this much, also in regards to other topics!

Now, the revanchist programme would consist of uniting the Germans in this state, i.e. Anschluss of Austria and Sudetenland, probably puppetizing the CSR/Czech Republic, negotiations concerning Eupen, a plea for German-South West. Acquisition of Memelland once the opportunity is there. Maybe a completely different stance concerning South Tyrolia.

Now this German regime would certainly plan for a war against Poland because you couldn't expect a diplomatic success there. The aim would be something close to the 1914-borders, but expect major ethnic cleansing from both sides akin to the Greek/Turk-affair in the 1920s.
Poland would continue to exist as a buffer state against the Bolchevist threat.

Now it very much depends on the character of German expansionism until then if France and the UK intervene. If there has been no occupation of Prague, less shameful anti-semitism, and clear German statements that this campaign is not meant to annex Poland, but to create a situation which is the foundation for lasting peace between Germans and Slavs - then I am pretty sure that they rather swallow the bitter pill. Mourir pour la Danzig? Not under these circumstances!

It is, with a lot of armbending, imaginable to have a NSDAP with a different anti-semitic approach. Not buying the utter nonsense of a Jewish race, they would try to find out (by all the freaky OTL-instruments of measuring noses etc.) which German Jews are actually really of German blood despite not being Christian and which are, such as the Ostjuden, of a different kind. This way you still have Anti-"Jewish" measures, expulsions etc., but in a very different way. Cynically put, it would hit those Jews which don't have many friends anywhere. The isolationsim of this *NS-regime would also mean that they wouldn't run across Europe killing 'em all.
Oh, and you would have loads of German Jews assimilating as much as possible up to the level of party membership.

You have to take into account that you won't have the massive Aryanization spoils this way!

Now, I do not see why Anti-Communism should disappear from the party platform (or maybe I misunderstand you here). Alone for internal reasons, Communism has to be discredited (and the national SOCIALISM expand the German welfare state at the same time). Germany can champaign Anticommunism internationally (and well be in tune with other capitalists...) without plotting Barbarossa. Good diplomacy might use this tune in order to create a bloc of Anti-Communist, (semi-)Authoritarian nations under German hegemony, including Poland, Romania, the CSR and maybe even the Baltic states. Just a thought.

On the economy... a German regime planning only for a limited war against Poland wouldn't have to go over the top economically in the way Hitler did. The ideology of Autarcism will, though, create a whole new set of problems. And there would still be a lot of deficit spending. So while the German economy will not go down in flames by 1939 in such a scenario, it will not soar through the 40s either, I guess.
 
The USSR is still going to invade Germany circa 1942/1943. Stalin was planning for this LONG before the M-R pact.

Stalin would continue planning this until his death if what he perceives to be the Capitalist camp is not split decisively by war.

If Stalin attacks German allies in Eastern Europe in a situation like the one I just described, the result wouldn't be a world war, but a crusade against Communism and the break-up of the Sovjet empire.

But as I said before, he would not dare. Actually, that would just be the best case scenario for the Sovjet Union.
 
surely, if no war between Britain/France and Germany
and Stalin invades westward in 42/43, you could have the scenario of a compact between the three powers against the Soviets (anti communist alliance)
 
But as I said before, he would not dare. Actually, that would just be the best case scenario for the Sovjet Union.

Umm. Stalin? Uncle Joe? Not dare?!? Are you kidding?

I'm also not clear how everyone in Europe being at war with the USSR (and probably the US being at war with Japan, at some point) doesn't qualify as a world war. Does it only count as a world war if it is most of Europe and Russia beating up on Germany and her allies?
 
NINO Germany or Nazi In Name Only Germany

It's similar to the one we know in a broad strokes sense, but has a few interesting differences. They aren't rabidly anti-semitic and don't delude themselves into thinking they could conquer the Soviet Union.

Wouldn´t that be essentially the (then already existing) DNVP?
Slightly anti-semitic, nationalistic, trying to reverse the Versailles treaty but not totally insane?

Anschluss yes, Sudetenland yes BUT no occupation of the rump Czechoslovakia. 1914 borders plus German speaking parts of former KuK Habsburg. Basically what Hörnla said.
(With the exception of Elsass-Lothringen, Eupen-Malmedy and Northern Schleswig probably. The Weimar Republic explicitly accepted the Western borders in the Locarno treaty.)

The problems is that the DNVP only got between 7-9% of the votes in the early 1930s. :)

It´s very unlikely though that any such imagined right-wing party wouldn´t support anti-communism. So I could see them - at least for a time - cooperating with the Sowjet Union on weapon development. Happened already in the Weimar Republic in the 1920s. But no way would they agree to any kind of a Molotov-Ribbentrop pact. They would see all three Baltic states (with their German minorities) as a German influence zone. Add friendly relations to Finland.
 
Umm. Stalin? Uncle Joe? Not dare?!? Are you kidding?

I'm also not clear how everyone in Europe being at war with the USSR (and probably the US being at war with Japan, at some point) doesn't qualify as a world war. Does it only count as a world war if it is most of Europe and Russia beating up on Germany and her allies?

Don´t know about the definition of a world war. :)
But that would be a war only in Eastern Europe and maybe the Pacific ocean.

But regarding Stalin, note that he only started his war against Finland and the threats against Romania plus the occupation of Eastern Poland after the war in Western Europe had already started. Everybody else was already "distracted". Without a war between Germany and France / UK I think he would have been much more cautious. Trying to avoid a "European" alliance against him.

And regarding Japan.
Without the defeat of France and the Netherlands in 1940 and the "distraction" of the UK in Europe and North Africa do you think Japan would still opt for the "Southern resource area" option? Plus attacking the USA too?
You don´t need that many naval ships against the USSR Baltic or Northern fleets. Which means that the French and British navies could deploy a lot more ships to Asia if needed.
 
I admit I don't know a whole lot about the political parties of Germany.

And that this Germany simply wasn't seeking to start a war with the Soviets and that a M-T Pact deal could still happen in a "We don't like each other but we can use each other kind of way."

And I will admit part of the OP was to test the waters on how much expansion one could get away with. (I personally think a longer lasting appeasement phase, a more in depth Op. Himmler, or even both could have gotten Germany Poland without a war against France/UK but whatever. I'm hardly an expert so I'll concede this.)

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That being said . . . Let's amend things a bit then.

Germany is a fascist country but not controlled by the Nazis. (I still don't know if they'd be closer in style to Mussolini or Franco . . . Or if they'd come up with some other alternative take on fascism.)

Germany annexes Austria. Annexes the Sudenland. Tries to use diplomatic measures on Poland. When that doesn't work, they basically force Poland to accept Germany reclaiming it's 1914 territory but Poland as a nation still exists. They get Memel. (Maybe they get that little piece back from Denmark too? Diplomatically.)

The Soviets don't take the Baltic states, assault Finland, or try to take Besserabia.

Germany is head of an anti-Soviet alliance that will go after the Soviets if they start anything. This is probably mainly states that border the USSR but could maybe one day, if lucky, include the Allies.

Germany pursues friendly relations with China, sending materials and advisors and the like.

With no distractions in Japan's favor and increasing international pressure, Japan stops fucking with China and makes do with the holdings it already has.

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WW2 is possibly avoided.

How does the world develop with all that that implies?

Can the Baltics stay free or are they doomed to drift ever further into either the German or Soviet camp? (And possibly face annexation?)

See Also: Most of the questions from my first post.
 
Tries to use diplomatic measures on Poland. When that doesn't work, they basically force Poland to accept Germany reclaiming it's 1914 territory but Poland as a nation still exists.

How would they do this? I've heard mixed opinions regarding an invasion of Poland that doesn't pull either France or Britain into war. Assuming Hitler was willing to do so and he didn't break the Munich agreement, how could he have best gone about reclaiming the Polish lands?
 
How would they do this? I've heard mixed opinions regarding an invasion of Poland that doesn't pull either France or Britain into war. Assuming Hitler was willing to do so and he didn't break the Munich agreement, how could he have best gone about reclaiming the Polish lands?

Difficult...
But if he honors the Munich agreement I can see the UK (and maybe France) still willing to accept "reasonable" proposals.

Like:
- The city of Danzig (after a plebiscite) allowed to join Germany
- a road / railway connecting East Prussia with the rest of Germany and cargo transported there not having to pay Polish tolls and custom fees
- more rights for the German minority in Poland

I´ve no idea how Poland might have reacted to these proposals.
But if Hitler at this point is still seen as honoring all treaties I could see the UK pressing Poland to accept these "reasonable" proposals. Remember that during most of the 1930s Hitler Germany was seen as a counterweight to Stalin.

Should Poland refuse I could see the UK staying neutral. And without UK support France too. I´m skeptical though that they would support a return to the 1914 German border. Maybe some slight border corrections but not a wholesome return to 1914.
(Unless of course one POD is that the Poles go totally crazy and massacre a lot of their German minority? But why would they do that?)
 
Western support or not, Poland will fight to keep "the Corridor". It can't afford otherwise - it's pretty much a lifeline. Without it there's nothing stopping Germany from strangling the Polish economy.

Another thing: with calmer and saner Germany Stalin may decide to pursue the conflict against Japan. Russo-Japanese War 2: The Union Strikes Back.
 
Western support or not, Poland will fight to keep "the Corridor". It can't afford otherwise - it's pretty much a lifeline. Without it there's nothing stopping Germany from strangling the Polish economy.

Another thing: with calmer and saner Germany Stalin may decide to pursue the conflict against Japan. Russo-Japanese War 2: The Union Strikes Back.

You´re definitely right here.
That´s why I was proposing only "reasonable" demands.
An extra-territorial road / railway connecting Germany with East Prussia not subject to Polish tolls or fees might seem reasonable to the UK (and France) if Hitler at that time is still seen as honoring his treaties.
It would still be Polish land - preserving the corridor - just not subject to Polish tolls and fees.
 

Eurofed

Banned
If the rise of the Nazi party is somehow butterflied out (which may take as little as Hitler ding in WWI or 1923), but the POD doesn't wipe out at least some of the causes that led to the fall of Weimar, a regime change to some kind of sane, non-genocidal far right regime is the by far most likely outcome to the crisis of the early '30s in Germany. Depending on butterflies, it might be akin to fascist Italy or be an authoritarian Kaiserreich restoration. It does not matter overmuch as it concerns foreign policy because the broad outlines shall be very similar.

The leadership shall be highly driven to fulfill the irredentist aspirations of the German people, in this rough order of priority: Austria, Danzig and the Corridor, Sudetenland, Upper Silesia, Memel, by any means that don't involve a new war with Britain and France. Nobody but a few extremist loonies shall be much interested in making a bid for Alsace-Lorraine, South Tyrol, or Eupen-Malmedy. They are going to be strongly anticommunist but not really any interested in invading the Soviet Union without provocation. For that matter, while they are going to get as close as they can to the 1914 border with Poland, and they are going to love making CZS and Poland puppets, and establish a German sphere of influence in Eastern Europe, if they can get away with it, they are not going to be overly interested in annexing either at the risk of a general war. They shall also be much interested in bringing an end to reparations ASAP and rearm enough to recover military parity with France, win a war with Poland, and contain the USSR, but no further. As such, German rearmament shall be at a less breakneck pace and much less stressful to German economy.

Since this Germany is in all likelihood going to stick to the terms of *Munich, and leave Czechoslovakia alone (at most go for slow and 'gentle' satellitization that won't bother London and Paris) and shall frame its claims on Poland in terms that indicate Berlin is only out for the pre-1914 stuff at the most, it is extremely likely that Britain shall be willing to make Munich II and back German claims on Poland, or turn the other way if Warsaw refuses to satisfy them and a German-Polish war happens because of Polish intransigence.

Up to German annexation of Danzig and West Prussia (more likely with Poland keeping Gdynia and an extraterritorial corridor to the same) at the Munich II table, and a restablishment of the 1914 border, or more likely something close to (Danzig, West Prussia, western-northern Posen, and Upper Silesia) are going to be acceptable terms for London. Britain was never interested in protecting the territorial integrity or economic independence of Poland if Germany proves reasonable, and they were skeptical of the 1919-21 border since the beginning. France is going to follow UK lead.

Once it has got its main foreign policy goals fulfilled, Germany is likely going to settle down as a largely satified power, and focus on building a sphere of influence in Eastern Europe by economic and political penetration, and setting itself up as an anti-Soviet bulwark. It is not going to do anything like the M-R Pact, and actually shall be hostile to Soviet moves on Finland, the Baltic states, and Romania, although they may look the other way if and when the USSR makes a move to grab the Kresy in the middle of a German-Polish war.

A collapse of Czechoslovakia is still quite possible but less likely than OTL since Germany is not going to go out of its way to support it, and Berlin would actively oppose it if CZS becomes its puppet. If it does not, however, they are not going to oppose it, as a way to weaken Czechia and pull it into their sphere. An Hungarian annexation of southern Slovakia is still going to happen as part of the *Munich settlement.

Italy is not going to do any hostile move on Anglo-French colonies or Greece, however it is quite likely that at some point Mussolini shall attack Yugoslavia with Hungarian and Bulgarian support. Since Britain doesn't really give a damn about the integrity of Yugoslavia, an Anglo-French intervention is quite unlikely. The Italian army is going to have some issues, but eventually to perform rather better than in Greece for various reasons, and win. A settlement rather like 1941, with Italy annexing central Dalmatia, and setting up Slovenia and Croatia (at least in the 1939 Banovina of Croatia, quite possibly with all of Bosnia) as independent puppets, Hungary getting Vojvodina, Bulgaria getting Vardar Macedonia, and Albania (as an independent Italian puppet, or less likely after annexation by Italy) getting Kosovo. With a victorious war, and a sphere of influence in the Balkans, Italy would mostly settle down.

At some point, a war between Hungary and Romania for northern Transylvania is likely to happen. It could go various ways, but unless Romania wins a clear victory, it is likely that the powers impose a settlement akin to the Second Vienna Award. During such a war, it is quite possible that the USSR may be able to get Bessarabia by threatening an intervention or even a limited war, but the Europen powers would be quite hostile to any further Soviet encroachment on Romania.

As it concerns the USSR, it is possible that it may be able to grab the Baltic states (especially Lettonia and Estonia, Lithuania is more troublesome since Germany would be hostile to a Soviet move on it without the M-R Pact) if the European powers are distracted by another international crisis, and to grab the Kresy and Bessarabia in the context of a German-Polish or Hungarian-Romanian war. Every Soviet aggressive move, however, increases the likelihood of formation of an European anti-Soviet alliance exponentially. A Soviet attack on Finland, Poland, or Romania (short of the opportunistic backstabbing case) is extremely likely to cause an anti-Soviet general war.

Stalin shall grab as much as he can short of a general war, which he shall shun at least until 1942-43, when Soviet industrialization and the build-up of the Red Army shall be advanced enough. Afterwards, he may risk it if he feels confident enough in the weakness of the capitalist powers, or paranoid enough to deem a pre-emptive strike is necessary. Depending on butterflies, it could go either way, a Red Alert-like anti-Soviet general war in the mid-1940s, or a capitalist-Communist Cold War without a WWII.

In the meanwhile, Stalin is more likely to seek an easier prey in the Far East. A Soviet-Japanese rematch is quite likely, with the Soviets successfully grabbing Manchuria and turning it into a SSR or puppet communist state. With an intact Japanese military, it is more likely that Japan successfuly hangs on to Korea, and the USSR would lose Sakhalin.

From there, it is likely that the USSR would move to establish its hegemony on China. This might mean a Soviet attack on Nationalist China with the aim to build a puppet Red China, or a Soviet-KMT alliance of convenience against Japan with the Soviet attempt to satellitize Nationalist China. It could go both ways, depending on diplomatic and political butterflies and how much Stalin gets ambitious and confident.

The European powers and America are not going to take much of a side about a Soviet-Japanese war limited to Manchuria, but they would be quite hostile to a Soviet hegemony on China, so they would most likely accept Japan into an anti-Communist alliance (and force Japan and the KMT to make a compromise peace). This would butterfly out Japanese aggressive plans on South East Asia.

However, there is also the possibility that the USSR and Japan may make an 'Axis' partnership of convenience (involving some kind of partition deal about spheres of influence in China) if Stalin feels threatened by an anti-Soviet alliance in Europe.
 
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