Avoiding the War of 1812

President Madison and the British Minister in Washington, Lord Erskine, nearly negotiated a settlement in 1809 to avoid disputes between the US and UK were having about maritime concerns. In OTL it was rejected by King George. If this succeeds and the War of 1812 can be avoided or delayed significantly what are the long-term effects?
 
To Britain .... almost none, we didn't want the war, didn't really fight the war, and signed a shameful treaty to end the war.

To America .... well their economy wouldn't have been wrecked, they would have a different looking capital city if Washington hadn't be burnt. Jackson would never have been President.

My guess is that the Americans needed to see if the could invade Canada so the war would have happened anyway, only the Americans would HAVE to see themselves as the agressors (as with Mexico / Texas) rather than saying they where forced into the war becuase the British didn't play fair.

And now what our American friends explode.......
 
the UK and USA would sooner or later come to grips with how to treat the Native Americans inside their borders. The UK was trying to get the USA to agree to treat them as separate nations, while the USA wanted them treated as being in charge of the ones inside their borders. Obviously, the USA view held sway, not only in the USA but Canada as well. The War of 1812 was directly responsible for that... without the war, it will have to be resolved some other way...
 
I agree with Dave Howery, even if the maritime disputes are solved, the issue of the Native Americans is going to be a major sticking point especially with Tecumseh raising all kinds of ruckus. Not saying that it can't be solved diplomatically, but it will be difficult.

Interestingly enough the demographics of Upper Canada (OTL Ontario) is going to be vastly different in TTL due to the continued immigration of Americans into the region in order to take advantage of the free land offered to anyone who agreed to settle the region and declare loyalty to the King. Needless to say the mere declaration didn't mean a whole lot as you had plenty of "Canadians" in OTL who were more than willing to help the Americans or at the very least sit things out. This could have ramifications further down the line, especially when these American immigrants start agitating for similar democratic rights held by their fellows to the south.

Andrew Jackson may still rise in TTL, though perhaps not as meteorically. The Creek Civil War isn't going to be able to be completely avoided and when it does break out Jackson's going to get involved in the war down there. Given the paucity of good commanders in TTL's US Army especially within the southern militias his star's going to rise slightly there as well. Especially if he invades Florida (which is a distinct possibility...In OTL there were some Georgians who were fillibustering down there around St. Augustine only to be curtailed by the War of 1812...)
 
Interestingly enough the demographics of Upper Canada (OTL Ontario) is going to be vastly different in TTL due to the continued immigration of Americans into the region in order to take advantage of the free land offered to anyone who agreed to settle the region and declare loyalty to the King.

What did these immigrants do in OTL?
 
What did these immigrants do in OTL?

For the most part they sat the war out waiting to see who would come out on top. Some aided the Americans, others the British but most simply waited until it became apparent that the British were gaining the upper hand and then pretended that they had been staunch loyalists all along. Given that the English Canadians were eager to build a national identity on the militia myth of 1812 the less than exemplary service to the Crown of the American immigrants was conveniently ignored.
 
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