Ok, I'm looking for a realistic fate of the Polish Commonwealth (at this point, Poland, Lithuania, Belarus, parts of Ukraine, nominally the Duchy of Courland) after a 7 Years War where Prussia is essentially reduced to a 2nd class power (largely divided by a victorious France, Austria, Russia, Sweden, Saxony, Bavaria, Mecklenburg, etc, etc, etc).
In OTL, Prussia somehow managed to survive the 7 Years War in the face of overwhelming odds, largely due to Russian/Austrian failure to coordinate and the "Miracle of the House of Brandenburg" that was Peter III's brief reign.
Assume those never occurred.
The Polish Commonwealth was under the "Golden Liberty" which basically allowed any member of the Diet/Parliament to veto any real legislation. Naturally, this made for a weak and utterly dysfunctional state sprawling in the middle of Europe that served as a buffer for Prussia, Russia and Austria.
By the 1770-90s the calls for reform were coming. However, it was easy for neighbors to dominate given a few judicious bribes could halt any legislation and the army could be kept small and helpless.
Russia had historically been most dominant but this occasionally slipped when attention was required elsewhere (Wars with the Ottoman) and sufficient force couldn't be sent to the borders to intimidate the Poles.
Frederick II of Prussia was most aggressive in search of land. Russian and Austria were ok with taking them once it became clear that rebellious Poland was becoming more trouble than it was worth to try to keep down.
In the 1780's/90's, after two partitions, the remainder of Poland rebelled multiple times, won some battles.
Without a strong, aggressive Hohenzollern House, what happens to Poland long term? Would the partitions have occurred?
If the first two partitions hadn't occurred, how would that affect the rebellions of the 1790's before the last partition?
How does this end?
Would Russia and Austria attempt to keep Poland dysfunctional forever, dealing with rebellion after rebellion?
Would Russia have attempted to partition unilaterally?
If so, how would Austria react?
Any ideas?
I have a timeline I'm putting together but don't have a clue of how to deal with Poland.
I can't believe this would go on forever. At the very least, Napoleon may have something to save about it around 1800 (a Polish Revolution similar to France's?).