Avoiding the Polish Partitions of 1770-1790 with no Prussian involvement

Ok, I'm looking for a realistic fate of the Polish Commonwealth (at this point, Poland, Lithuania, Belarus, parts of Ukraine, nominally the Duchy of Courland) after a 7 Years War where Prussia is essentially reduced to a 2nd class power (largely divided by a victorious France, Austria, Russia, Sweden, Saxony, Bavaria, Mecklenburg, etc, etc, etc).

In OTL, Prussia somehow managed to survive the 7 Years War in the face of overwhelming odds, largely due to Russian/Austrian failure to coordinate and the "Miracle of the House of Brandenburg" that was Peter III's brief reign.

Assume those never occurred.

The Polish Commonwealth was under the "Golden Liberty" which basically allowed any member of the Diet/Parliament to veto any real legislation. Naturally, this made for a weak and utterly dysfunctional state sprawling in the middle of Europe that served as a buffer for Prussia, Russia and Austria.

By the 1770-90s the calls for reform were coming. However, it was easy for neighbors to dominate given a few judicious bribes could halt any legislation and the army could be kept small and helpless.

Russia had historically been most dominant but this occasionally slipped when attention was required elsewhere (Wars with the Ottoman) and sufficient force couldn't be sent to the borders to intimidate the Poles.

Frederick II of Prussia was most aggressive in search of land. Russian and Austria were ok with taking them once it became clear that rebellious Poland was becoming more trouble than it was worth to try to keep down.

In the 1780's/90's, after two partitions, the remainder of Poland rebelled multiple times, won some battles.

Without a strong, aggressive Hohenzollern House, what happens to Poland long term? Would the partitions have occurred?

If the first two partitions hadn't occurred, how would that affect the rebellions of the 1790's before the last partition?

How does this end?

Would Russia and Austria attempt to keep Poland dysfunctional forever, dealing with rebellion after rebellion?

Would Russia have attempted to partition unilaterally?

If so, how would Austria react?

Any ideas?

I have a timeline I'm putting together but don't have a clue of how to deal with Poland.

I can't believe this would go on forever. At the very least, Napoleon may have something to save about it around 1800 (a Polish Revolution similar to France's?).
 
Have some Polish king successfully consolidate his kingdom and limit the power the nobles have in the Sejm. There was one back in the 1600s who had a shot at doing so, but I can't remember exactly.
 
Until Prussia shook things up, Poland was a Russian satellite state. It won't be partitioned because Russia is going to try to swallow her whole.
 
Until Prussia shook things up, Poland was a Russian satellite state. It won't be partitioned because Russia is going to try to swallow her whole.

Well, going even back, into the early 1600s, which in Russian history is colloquially known as the "Troubles", you could have Russia continue its series of civil wars and false Tsars, and have the surrounding nations capitalize on the chaos, like Poland, Sweden, the Ottoman Empire, and possibly even Great Britain. Basically switch the fates of Russia and Poland.
 
Here's another way to avoid the Polish Partitions of the late 1700s: Have Russia and Sweden agree to partition it in the 1660s in the Great Northern War. Bam, no Poland to partition it later. Perhaps Austria and Brandenburg could be invited in to take parts as well.
 
Thanks, I'm aiming for a POD of 1760 when Prussia is destroyed.

With only Russia and Austria truly in competition for dominance in Poland, what would happen?

Could Russia swallow Poland in the face of opposition of the Austria(with Silesia), Saxony, Poland itself, possibly the Ottoman and Sweden, etc?

Russia may have been the big dog but I'm not sure if they are that big.
 
The thing is the partitioners of Poland were also descendants of the Piast Kings and have more legitemate rights to the Polish throne compared to the elected rulers including Jogaila, in fact the direct descendant of Casimir III are the Kings of Prussia - you know the propaganda of the Prussians that they are descendants of the Piast dynasty, the same for the Austrians and the Tsar of Russia, Catherine the Great is descended from the sister of Przemysl II, the first King of Poland after the fragmentation period of Poland.

How about having Silesia not affected by the Reformation and have it stay having a large Polish speaking population - in that way Austria will be interested in a two way partition, Austria gets the rest of Poland and Russia gains all the Lithuanian and Ruthenian provinces.

Basically, seeds of the Partition were already planted during the time of Louis of Hungary, the Polish provinces gained by Prussia were almost the same one whose nobles don't want a foreign dynasty to rule them which are Silesia and Greater Poland both provinces ended up largely Pro-German, basically if we want Poland to remain intact we should have Elisabeth of Pomerania not married to Charles IV and give her to a more suitable husband - who would defend her rights as the heiress to Poland, I think without the partition, Posen and Pomerellia will be lost to Austria or Prussia in a war.
 
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Russia knew that keeping Poland in a state of near-anarchy was the only way of maintaining influence, short of direct annexation. Reforms are hard to avoid, the best one can hope for is to delay them until France breaks its containment under Napoleon and runs wild across Europe. Otherwise Russia will react to reforms with violence and major annexations (or some sort of personal union which will ultimately amount to the same thing). Swallowing all of Poland was possible, at least for a time, but in the long run it would be even worse for Russia's internal development then OTL unless Poland manages to break free after some time (the OTL November Uprising gave Russia quite a lot of trouble. If the alt-"Congress Kingdom" is bigger).
 
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Thanks, I'm aiming for a POD of 1760 when Prussia is destroyed.

With only Russia and Austria truly in competition for dominance in Poland, what would happen?

Could Russia swallow Poland in the face of opposition of the Austria(with Silesia), Saxony, Poland itself, possibly the Ottoman and Sweden, etc?

Russia may have been the big dog but I'm not sure if they are that big.

Russia's annexation would have been gradual. It starts with them controlling Polish politics, choosing their man as King etc (OTL). Then they sign an agreement to station troops there in peace time. Then the next elected king is a minor Romanov, etc. By the time formal annexation happens, everyone accepts the place is Russia's backyard.

As for other nations ability to stop it, it's not much. Take Austria. Think of the 7YW in our timeline: Russia had basically crippled Prussia. Prussia's land was invaded, the army was in collapse, the treasury near bankrupt. Then Russia pulls out, and the near-broken Prussia could turn things around and defeat the Austrians. So Russia can beat a strong Prussia, but a broken Prussia can defeat Austria. How do you think a Russia vs Austria war will go? The next biggest power in Sweden, who's attack on Russia in the Russo-Swedish war was brushed aside by Catherine as a minor distraction. Saxony is weaker still. The Ottomans aren't going to give a damn, as Russia getting involved in Poland means they're not getting involved with them.

If anyone's going to stop it, it's going to be a long-run campaign by Polish and Ukrainian dissidents. But they didn't have too much success against occupying powers in our timeline.
 
Russia's annexation would have been gradual. It starts with them controlling Polish politics, choosing their man as King etc (OTL). Then they sign an agreement to station troops there in peace time. Then the next elected king is a minor Romanov, etc. By the time formal annexation happens, everyone accepts the place is Russia's backyard.

As for other nations ability to stop it, it's not much. Take Austria. Think of the 7YW in our timeline: Russia had basically crippled Prussia. Prussia's land was invaded, the army was in collapse, the treasury near bankrupt. Then Russia pulls out, and the near-broken Prussia could turn things around and defeat the Austrians. So Russia can beat a strong Prussia, but a broken Prussia can defeat Austria. How do you think a Russia vs Austria war will go? The next biggest power in Sweden, who's attack on Russia in the Russo-Swedish war was brushed aside by Catherine as a minor distraction. Saxony is weaker still. The Ottomans aren't going to give a damn, as Russia getting involved in Poland means they're not getting involved with them.

If anyone's going to stop it, it's going to be a long-run campaign by Polish and Ukrainian dissidents. But they didn't have too much success against occupying powers in our timeline.

I think Prussia or Austria will get Posen as a compensation.
 
I think Prussia or Austria will get Posen as a compensation.

Prussia is done for in the scenario described. Ducal Prussia has already probably been taken by the Russians, and what's left is a rump Brandenburg. Prussia is no longer a power, but a medium sized state on the level of Saxony.

Posen is too far away to be useful to Austria. Austria may get given some territory on the border to smooth things over, but given Russia's overwhelming superiority here, that's not a given.
 
Prussia is done for in the scenario described. Ducal Prussia has already probably been taken by the Russians, and what's left is a rump Brandenburg. Prussia is no longer a power, but a medium sized state on the level of Saxony.

Posen is too far away to be useful to Austria. Austria may get given some territory on the border to smooth things over, but given Russia's overwhelming superiority here, that's not a given.

The Duchy of Siewierz was basically a possession of the Bishop of Krakow in Silesia, I think Austria will get it once Poland gets annexed by Russia, I also think Krakow will also be a priority of Austria if it wars with Russia since it was once a part of Bohemia.
 
Russia's annexation would have been gradual. It starts with them controlling Polish politics, choosing their man as King etc (OTL). Then they sign an agreement to station troops there in peace time. Then the next elected king is a minor Romanov, etc. By the time formal annexation happens, everyone accepts the place is Russia's backyard.

As for other nations ability to stop it, it's not much. Take Austria. Think of the 7YW in our timeline: Russia had basically crippled Prussia. Prussia's land was invaded, the army was in collapse, the treasury near bankrupt. Then Russia pulls out, and the near-broken Prussia could turn things around and defeat the Austrians. So Russia can beat a strong Prussia, but a broken Prussia can defeat Austria. How do you think a Russia vs Austria war will go? The next biggest power in Sweden, who's attack on Russia in the Russo-Swedish war was brushed aside by Catherine as a minor distraction. Saxony is weaker still. The Ottomans aren't going to give a damn, as Russia getting involved in Poland means they're not getting involved with them.

If anyone's going to stop it, it's going to be a long-run campaign by Polish and Ukrainian dissidents. But they didn't have too much success against occupying powers in our timeline.

Remember that Russia did not break Prussia alone. Austria had been fighting for years. 1x1 Prussia would have beaton any power in Europe. Had Russia been facing 100,000 Prussia, Russia would have been crushed.

In the 7 Years War, Austria reformed its Army (much inferior to Prussia's in quality at least in the beginning) and narrowed the gap to the Prussian elite (even as Prussia's Army withered with casualties replaced by conscripted foreigners).

As Frederick II's primary armies/resources was largely occupied fighting Imperial/Austrian armies, Russia taking East Prussia (largely undefended) was easy and not much of an accomplishment, even Berlin was not much of a struggle as the bulk of Prussia's army was fighting to the south (and the flower of the Prussia Army). Most of the 1x1 battles between Russia and Prussia were 2 to 1 man advantages fought by Frederick's subordinants and usually not the most talented of them.

If anything, Russia's performance in the 7 Years War proved their incapacity. The generals were timid, the soldiers impressed peasants. They were not yet the inexorable 250,000 man army marching westward like they were in the Napoleonic Wars.

You are right about Sweden, their performance was pathetic and later antogonizing the Russians in the Russo-Swedish War was insane. Sweden couldn't take a virtually undefended Pomerania.

The quantity of soldiers utilized by Austria in the 7 Years War were similar to Russia and probably better. Augmented by Silesia, a rich and populous province, Austria would be much stronger and definitively allied with the Saxon Elector (and Polish King), an effective coalition wouldn't be that hard to form. Austria also had the definitive logistics advantage being some much closer and the dysfunctional Russian Army could hardly supply a massive army at this point from so far away.

Austria also would be free to express greater interest in the goings-on in Poland.

Meanwhile, Russia's attention was still largely on the fading Ottoman.

Assuming a dismembered Prussia after the 7 Years War, a neutral France married into the Austrian family in 1770ish (and hardly interested in an Eastern War provided Austria don't attempt to conquer Polish Territory for itself and alter the balance of power) and the Ottoman in decline, I think Russian domination in Poland might be challenged rather easily.
 
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Isn't avoiding partitions rather simple? There are two ways imo- one involving Prussia total destruction:

7YW- No "miracles", Prussia is completely abolished in this scenario- PLC gets eastern Prussia (in exchange for Courland- given to Russia as planned otl), Saxony gets part of Brandenburg (or whole- in exchange ending its PU with PLC). As for Pommerania I've few ideas- it either goes to PLC in exchange for Spisz (given to Austria), together with Kustrin (as long as PLC is in state of anarchy, it's rather safe solution- Russia is not getting anything out of PLC), or it becomes separate state, or it goes to Sweden (or is split between PLC and Sweden). This leaves " Prussia" with nothing but Berlin and surroundings- or abolished at all.

Second idea is- King Poniatowski crushes insurrectionists during Bar confederacy (together with Czartoryski family), and Sejm Czaplica isn't abolished (partial reforms are introduced- with Russias blessing. No reason for partitions is given- and chanve for further reforms is opened. Austria/ GB might later back PLC up against Russia (for own interests of course) ending protectorate. Of course either Prussia or PLC must sooner or later- these two states have way too much contsted areas which are too vital to give up.
 
Even if we avoid the Partition, I think Posen or majority of it along with Pomerellia will be lost by the PLC sooner or later along with the two Silesian Duchies Auschwitz and Zator which are claimed by Austria and the Austrian-Polish Condominium the Duchy of Siewierz will be lost.
 
Even if we avoid the Partition, I think Posen or majority of it along with Pomerellia will be lost by the PLC sooner or later along with the two Silesian Duchies Auschwitz and Zator which are claimed by Austria and the Austrian-Polish Condominium the Duchy of Siewierz will be lost.

Fpr the God's sake, why would Austria be so hell bent on getting Posen? It's indefensible, unprepared for integration and- ultimately- completely unneeded by Habsburgs. Hell- if Frederick the Great wouldn't have said- "whether you take it or not, partitions will happen", Austria wouldn't even take Galicia.
 
Fpr the God's sake, why would Austria be so hell bent on getting Posen? It's indefensible, unprepared for integration and- ultimately- completely unneeded by Habsburgs. Hell- if Frederick the Great wouldn't have said- "whether you take it or not, partitions will happen", Austria wouldn't even take Galicia.


It is not the Austrians who will get Posen, the Austrians will get Spisz, Auschwitz, Zator and Siewierz - someone else will get Posen(or most of it) and Pomerellia, I think Brandenburg could be given pieces of Posen and all of Pomerellia as a compensation for its claims for East Prussia or a unified Germany snaps them off.

Posen was basically supposed to have been lost earlier if it wasn't for the Hussite Wars, this is basically overdue due to the Germanophile nobility there.
 
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