Avoiding the Mithridatic Wars

Hey guys! I'm very new (note my post count) to alternate history, and I'm not particularly well schooled in history in general, despite enjoying learning about it. This period and region combination in particular are very new to me, so I'm researching as I go and hoping to get some guidance and suggestions with this project. Without further ado, here's what I have so far:

The Mithridatic Peace
Part One

In the year 89 BC, a tense standoff between Mithridates VI of Pontus and Nicomedes IV of Bithynia was heating up. Pressure from the Roman Legatus Aquillius and his retinue on Nicomedes to invade Pontus was concerning all in the area, especially Tigranes of Armenia. Tigranes knew that Mithridates would be able to hold off the invasion, and knew that it could even result in a successful start to any potential war for both Pontus and Armenia, but he was also wary of Rome. Though at the time only two Roman legions were close enough to respond to initial attacks, and the Social War currently occurring in Italy may prevent a full scale retaliation, Tigranes did not want to become embroiled in a war with such a powerful nation. The smaller (though still formidable) kingdoms to the South and East were more appealing targets for the relatively knew emperor. Parthia in particular was on Tigranes' mind as he formed an alliance with Pontus, as he had been held hostage there for over a decade by Mithridates II.

As the Pontic-Armenian alliance was sealed by Tigranes taking Mithridates' daughter as his wife, Nicomedes was becoming increasingly concerned with his situation. As he had large debts owing to lenders in Rome, he could not ignore the repeated requests for Bithynia to invade Pontus, but he thought that such an invasion would result in huge losses for his kingdom, even if he won. As he owed so much to Rome (Nicomedes had recently been reinstated as King of Bithynia by the Senate after a successful invasion by Mithridates forced him to flee to Italy) it was assumed by many that he would invade at once, probably as early as possible in 89 BC. Instead however, Nicomedes resisted the pressure, seemingly unsure about what to do. During this time Nicomedes kept to himself as much as possible, declining to meet with all but the most powerful guests at Nicomedia.

Summer passed, and still no war broke out. Nicomedes seemed to be waiting for something, some excuse not to fight. No such reason presented itself, and as Winter began, a few of Nicomedes' creditors started threatening him. Nicomedes had no way to repay his loans, and for a while he even started drawing up plans to invade in the Spring of 88 BC. Mithridates VI had by now amassed a large army, around 100,000 strong. Tigranes had also been strengthening his defenses in preparation for a war he did not want to commit to, with an army of 75,000 ready to fight. Nicomedes had only 40,000 soldiers, though the two Roman Legions commanded by Aquillius were prepared to join forces with them. It was early 88 BC, near the end of Winter and drawing close to the time Nicomedes was planning to attack, when he received more accurate reports about the size of the army commanded by Mithridates and immediately refused to invade, or even send raiding parties to Pontus.

In the spring of 88 BC, Nicomedes was found dead in his bedroom, presumably assassinated by an irate creditor knowing that with Mithridates apparently getting ready for war, Nicomedes would never be able to pay back his debts.
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Any thoughts, suggestions, criticisms? As a note, I have tried to find a good POD that will avoid a war at least in the short run (one or two years) but unless I can think of another good one, I think war in the years after that is pretty much unavoidable. And here is a political map at the beginning of 88 BC, lifted from the wikipedia First Mithridatic Wars article.
 
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It sounds good I don't know how long you can prevent Mithradates from making war with Rome, so this is going to be very interesting). One problem I have though is with the troop numbers. Do you have any estimates other than the ancient sources (notorious for wildly exagerrating numbers) that say these small kingdoms could field armies that large? I don't have my book on Mithradates on my atm so I can't check, but it seems hard to believe that the Pontic kingdom could support an army of 400,000, and Nicomedes 100,000 (especially considering, I believe the Romans during the second punic war had a manpower reserve of about 750,000 and they were fairly large, not to mention had a very large manpower by any standards of the day, and even they could not field an army anywhere close to that number though).

Other than that though, I am really looking forward to this timeline. I enjoy Mithradates and late republican timelines, and this has both...
 
To be honest I am pulling the numbers from wikipedia articles about the battles, the siege of Athens and Piraeus was where my estimate for Pontus was from and Battle of the River Amnias was my source for Bithynia. The sources seem to be ancient historians, Appian and Paterculus.

Would you have any advice on where to find better estimates, or perhaps an estimate of your own?

Edit: also just realized that I misinterpreted the siege of Athens and Piraeus article. I now think that the number includes civilian prisoners/casualties.

Edit2: I'm finding speculation on modern forums that seems to point to 130,000-ish for Pontus around that time. They aren't giving sources, but I've seen it in about three or four different places between 120 and 150. I'm guessing that would put Nicomedes with around 45,000-50,000 troops, supported by the two legions mentioned. Armenia would be close to 100,000 then, I would guess.
 
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Edit: also just realized that I misinterpreted the siege of Athens and Piraeus article. I now think that the number includes civilian prisoners/casualties.

Edit2: I'm finding speculation on modern forums that seems to point to 130,000-ish for Pontus around that time. They aren't giving sources, but I've seen it in about three or four different places between 120 and 150. I'm guessing that would put Nicomedes with around 45,000-50,000 troops, supported by the two legions mentioned. Armenia would be close to 100,000 then, I would guess.

That sounds more reasonable. I just got out my book on Mithradates (The Poison King By Adrenne Mayor if you are interested), so lemme check it and see if can find any estimates...

According to the book, Appian estimates that Mithradates had 250,000 soldiers and 50,000 cavalry, and accordng to Memnon, it was 190,000 infantry and 10,000 cavalry (this is including all the garisons and defense forces and more like what he could theoretically call on I will presume). He mustered 40,000 initially against Aquillius. Memnon says he invaded Greece with 100,000 barbarian bronze shields and 10,000 cavalry in three separate groups, but again, I'd be a little skeptical of those numbers (though a lot of them seemed to be more mercenaries and barbarian allies rather than core Pontic troops, so that definitely is possible).

Mithradates troops at Chaeronea are supposedly 120,000 strong, while Sulla's were apparently 30-40,000 strong (again, I'd round that number of 120,000 down, maybe to 80,000-90,000 at most).

Though since i actually (surprisingly) haven't found much contradicting the 120,000, I could very well be wrong. Given though that in almost all the Greco Persian wars, the numbers are usually more exaggerated than usual though, I'd still take the 120,000 figure with a grain of salt.
 
I'd take the lowest numbers in the sources above and at least halve them. Possibly even at times quarter numbers from pre-modern sources. It was damn hard for ancient, classical, and even early pre-modern states to feed such huge armies let alone field them (and pay for them).
 
The Mithridatic Peace
Part Two

With Nicomedes slain and his brother Socrates Chrestus put to death by Mithridates VI in 90 BC, it seemed that the throne would fall to Nysa, the younger sister of Nicomedes and and Socrates. Nysa was at the time around her early thirties and had not married, to the surprise and indeed disbelief of the rulers of the time. At this age it was suspected that she would never marry, and when she died the royal bloodline would become extinct. Realizing this, many families across the region contested her claim, although the nearest relation to the royal family who put forth a claim was Mithridates VI, brother in law to Nysa's grandfather.

The people of Bithynia did not want a childless woman on the throne, wishing instead for a more stable government and not wanting the political turmoil they saw in Cappadocia over the last 5 years to spill into their own country. On the day that Nysa was crowned by a small group of her supporters, a riot broke out in the streets of Nicomedia, making its way quickly to the castle and forcing Nysa to flee. She managed to escape safely, fleeing to the east. Though many were confused as to why she did not seek refuge in Italy as her brother had, she was quickly forgotten as Mithridates seized his chance to gain control of Bithynia.

With no ruler in place, the military of Bithynia was smaller and less organized than ever, so after most of the Pontic army - around 85,000 men - marched into the major towns and cities then started to spread out through the countryside, it was only a few weeks before Mithridates was convinced that he had total control of the area, and that the Roman legions that had been preparing to help Nicomedes had quickly withdrawn from Bithynia. There had been some hostilities between Pontic soldiers and Cappadocian soldiers on the south-eastern border of Bithynia, but Ariobarzanes withdrew quickly as he did not trust the Roman legions to help him if he engaged Mithridates, and was worried about Tigranes launching a counter-invasion if he overextended.

It was now turning to winter in 88 BC, and the Social War in Italy was coming to an end, with only the Samnites left resisting the Romans, although they too were almost ready to concede defeat. The Roman General Sulla had been elected Consul alongside the former Praetor Pompeius, as a result of his work to end the Social War. The two men were steadfast allies, giving pause to any who thought of opposing the wishes of Rome - particularly Tigranes, who saw Sulla in particular as a warrior and leader to be feared. Tigranes sent messengers to Mithridates VI to withdraw from Bithynia or risk the wrath of the Senate. Mithridates replied quickly to his son-in-law, asking Tigranes to send soldiers to help bolster his numbers. Tigranes refused, saying that if Rome attacked he would help defend the borders of Pontus - but not Bithynia.
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I had some serious trouble with this one, and I'm not very happy with the Nysa part in particular, but with so little information about her around she would be a complete wild card, so I figured I had to get rid of her. After that, I can only see Mithridates and Rome being potential successors once Nysa had left, as anyone else would have so little power that they wouldn't stand a chance at holding Bithynia.

And back in part one I lowered the military numbers significantly, it should be more realistic now.
 

katchen

Banned
Tigranes is being realistic too. The mountains of Bithinya are much lower and far less rugged and more open to the rest of Anatolia than the mountain fastness surrounding Pontus, which is a lot farther from Rome's supply lines too. And if push comes to shove, Tigranes can make a case to the Parthians that after Pontus, Armenia is threatened and after Armenia, it is Parthia's turn to fall to Rome. Parthia too may come to Pontus's aid.
 
I'd take the lowest numbers in the sources above and at least halve them. Possibly even at times quarter numbers from pre-modern sources. It was damn hard for ancient, classical, and even early pre-modern states to feed such huge armies let alone field them (and pay for them).

I wouldn't go that low. It's not that difficult to see Mithradates commanding a force of 80,000 (especially considering given the sources we can at least assume Sulla was still heavily outnumbered), especially if we take into account that around 10-15,000 of them IIRC were Tigranes' own men and a large portion of them were also local Thracian and Anatolian allies.
 
Tigranes is being realistic too. The mountains of Bithinya are much lower and far less rugged and more open to the rest of Anatolia than the mountain fastness surrounding Pontus, which is a lot farther from Rome's supply lines too. And if push comes to shove, Tigranes can make a case to the Parthians that after Pontus, Armenia is threatened and after Armenia, it is Parthia's turn to fall to Rome. Parthia too may come to Pontus's aid.
Parthia isn't coming to Pontus' aide anytime soon. Not only do the Parthians have more than enough on their plate already, they despise Tigranes. Some of Tigranes territory was already that taken from the Parthians, such as Media. I'm willing to bet one of the few reasons they didn't team up with the Romans against Tigranes was because they were already busy with other internal matters.

Anyway, good update. Mithradates is taking a gamble, and this time he can't play the "I was attacked first card". Looking forward to the rest of the TL.
 
I wouldn't go that low. It's not that difficult to see Mithradates commanding a force of 80,000 (especially considering given the sources we can at least assume Sulla was still heavily outnumbered), especially if we take into account that around 10-15,000 of them IIRC were Tigranes' own men and a large portion of them were also local Thracian and Anatolian allies.

Maybe. Modern scholarship is very critical of the size of ancient, classical and medieval armies as "documented" by chroniclers of the day. A kind of rule of thumb is that a stable polity could incorporate about 1% of the population into military service (this is standing army plus levies*). At least with the structure and surviving documentation of Roman armies (Han and T'ang armies, too), one can get a handle on their sizes. For many other polities, we aren't as fortunate.

Some good general discussion on pre-modern army sizes can be found on this thread:
http://historum.com/ancient-history/63673-size-ancient-armies.html

*edit for clarification: By standing army + levies, I don't mean that all of these are thrown into battle at once. This includes garrisons, frontier forces, reserves, etc. Only a fraction of these real or potential forces would actually be on a particular battle field.
 
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I'd take the lowest numbers in the sources above and at least halve them. Possibly even at times quarter numbers from pre-modern sources. It was damn hard for ancient, classical, and even early pre-modern states to feed such huge armies let alone field them (and pay for them).

Agreed with this.

When I see any figure for a pre-modern army that's higher than about 50,000 I raise an eyebrow.
 
I'm seeing two theories floating around the internet as to Nysa's relation to Nicomedes IV. According to most websites I've found (most of which are quoting wikipedia, and I can't connect to the source wikipedia quotes to check its validity) Nysa is the brother of Nicomedes IV, but the source you posted there says daughter...I think I'll stick with sister in this TL, not that it has much of an effect on events. Also, I don't really see Mithridates taking Nysa as a wife in the short period of time before she is crowned, so once the people of Bithynia chase her out of the country, Mithridates figures that he will be seen as more likely to be a stable ruler, at least in the short term, and if he even considers searching for Nysa in order to marry her, he assumes that she probably wouldn't be any help to his conquest anyway.

Just my thoughts and reasoning for the events of the second installment, obviously I'm pretty new to the rulers of the time in that area, so I could be a fair way off...
 
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