Avoiding the Continuation War?

As I understand things after being attacked by the Soviets in the Winter War but generally managing to fight them to a stand-still and respectable conclusion the Finns later allied with Germany after the invasion of Norway and Battle of France since the French and British were no longer viable allies against the perceived continuing Soviet threat. What happens if for the sake of this discussion the German invasion of Norway had turned into a disaster with their suffering major naval losses and the ground troops being captured or mostly escaping via Sweden so that the Norwegians are a member of the Allies but France still falling as in our timeline? This gives them a small stretch of coastline in the north but also now a decent land border with Norway. If they're able to import supplies from the Allies and neutral third party states say via Sweden do people think that would be enough for Finland to decide that armed neutrality is the best course rather than throwing their lot in with Germany and the invasion of the USSR?
 

Insider

Banned
If Soviet Union had decide to hand over territories they took over with city of Viipuri, social-democratic Finland would prefere to back it instead the more ideologicaly distant regime. USSR have enough forests and cranberries.

Neutral Finland would mean good things for citizens of Leningrad.
 
Last edited:
State union with Sweden was the only remotely realistic alternative for Finland in post-Winter War situation, and in a scenario where Allies control Norway Stockholm might see it prudent to accept the Finnish proposal despite Soviet objections to the plan. This would turn Finnish foreign policy over to Swedish control, and create a new neutral bloc to northern Europe.
 
my thinking would be IF Germany was defeated in their invasion of Norway, suffering even worse naval losses than IOTL, an invasion of USSR would be stalled. on the basis that Battle of the Atlantic would be going much worse for Axis side.

this would be one way to avoid Continuation War.

posted a thread about earlier Winter War https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=379675

with idea Soviets, after Munich Agreement, see an opportunity to grab Finland with weak WAllies not willing to stop them.

not sure how that would affect (any) German-Soviet pact or Finland's participation in (any) invasion of USSR?
 
My thinking would be if Germany was defeated in their invasion of Norway, suffering even worse naval losses than in our timeline, an invasion of USSR would be stalled, on the basis that Battle of the Atlantic would be going much worse for Axis side.
Would Hitler really call off Operation Barbarossa if Germany is defeated in Norway? France has still crumbled, Britain is all by themselves with no way of landing back on the continent in force, the Kriegsmarine isn't really a part of the invasion, and conquering the Soviet Union to crush the Judeo-Bolshevik threat was the whole point of starting the war in the first place.
 
my thinking would be IF Germany was defeated in their invasion of Norway, suffering even worse naval losses than IOTL, an invasion of USSR would be stalled. on the basis that Battle of the Atlantic would be going much worse for Axis side.

According to Hitler's logic, a failing Battle of the Atlantic for Germany is even more reason to attack the Soviet Union. He believed since he could not invade Britain, the best thing would be to eliminate the Soviets and demonstrate to the British that could not defeat Germany.
 
State union with Sweden was the only remotely realistic alternative for Finland in post-Winter War situation, and in a scenario where Allies control Norway Stockholm might see it prudent to accept the Finnish proposal despite Soviet objections to the plan. This would turn Finnish foreign policy over to Swedish control, and create a new neutral bloc to northern Europe.

Possibly. Most likely Stockholm would still cave in to the German and Soviet objections to the union and abort the plan. Together, Berlin and Moscow still in 1940 have enough leverage to pressure the Finns and Swedes not to go through with the union. Both Hitler and Stalin would think that they will gain something from a policy of divide and rule when it comes to Finno-Swedish cooperation. With the Allies in Norway, both dictators probably think/fear that a Finno-Swedish union will likely stay neutral only in the best case scenario and most likely join the Allies in a while.

So what we would need is Stockholm suddenly growing a backbone, being ready to be seen as not-neutral by some and to stick its neck out for Finland. It might be doable. To me it just seems damn hard, given Sweden's OTL preferences and policies.

But like you said, that is pretty much the only slightly plausible option to the German alliance. Even with the Allies in Norway, the Finns will still think they are under an existential threat from the east. They need a strong, committed ally and they need it fast. Because of many things, if Stockholm is not ready to dive in, Berlin's is the only game in town.
 
my thinking would be IF Germany was defeated in their invasion of Norway, suffering even worse naval losses than IOTL, an invasion of USSR would be stalled. on the basis that Battle of the Atlantic would be going much worse for Axis side.

Would Hitler really call off Operation Barbarossa if Germany is defeated in Norway? France has still crumbled, Britain is all by themselves with no way of landing back on the continent in force, the Kriegsmarine isn't really a part of the invasion, and conquering the Soviet Union to crush the Judeo-Bolshevik threat was the whole point of starting the war in the first place.

According to Hitler's logic, a failing Battle of the Atlantic for Germany is even more reason to attack the Soviet Union. He believed since he could not invade Britain, the best thing would be to eliminate the Soviets and demonstrate to the British that could not defeat Germany.

was trying to answer within PODs of the OP, sorry for using term Battle of the Atlantic was really referring to overall war against Great Britain.

IMO a humiliating loss in Norway is going to preclude an invasion of France, leave aside an invasion of USSR.

but assume they are able to scratch out a victory in France, there is probably some fair number of French troops in Norway in addition to ones evacuated to GB, as well the French navy faces only threat from LW. is there really going to be a Vichy regime? and is Italy really going to jump into this war?

think the threat Finland would face would not be decision on joining (any) invasion of USSR but whether Soviets (Stalin) fear a German collapse and launch a Continuation War of their own.
 
But like you said, that is pretty much the only slightly plausible option to the German alliance. Even with the Allies in Norway, the Finns will still think they are under an existential threat from the east. They need a strong, committed ally and they need it fast. Because of many things, if Stockholm is not ready to dive in, Berlin's is the only game in town.

And as the OP talks about armed neutrality, the Nazi regime is the only power in the position to quickly supply the Finns with modern (captured French) military equipment the Finnish Army so desperately needs. And the only major power with the interest and means to bring in tens of thousands of soldiers to Finnish soil.

Unless Churchill suddenly decides that re-arming and politically supporting Finland is a viable strategy that needs to be pursued with utmost priourity, the Allies are in no position to provide enough help to deter further Soviet aggression. And even if they wanted to help, the British aid would still require Swedish permission of military access through the Narvik-Kiruna railroad. And granting that would effectively mean war against Germany.

So yeah, avoiding the Finno-German alliance is rather hard with the premise of the OP.
 
think the threat Finland would face would not be decision on joining (any) invasion of USSR but whether Soviets (Stalin) fear a German collapse and launch a Continuation War of their own.

The Soviets had detailed plans for the final occupation of Finland, and it was one of the main points of discussion when Molotov visited Berlin in 1940.
 
Top