It really depends on what you mean by 'Apartheid.' You're going to see really vicious oppression of blacks, mixed-race, and Asians even without the federal-level laws and without Grand Apartheid.
But
1948 was pretty close thing. If the NP doesn't eliminate their republican plank or doesn't cooperate with the Afrikaner Party, they could easily lose. They only won because the rural districts (which they did better in) had fewer voters than urban ones. And afterwards their parliamentary majorities were helped by extensive gerrymandering, I believe.
So, UP South Africa in the 50s will be a rather different, more 'liberal' (loosely defined for a racial oligarchy) place. White immigration will not be restricted, meaning a more 'Anglo' white populace. Television will come in the 50s, not the 70s. Grand Apartheid will not come about, which will make black national consciousness harder to suppress as time goes on. The lack of a Bantu Education Act will probably significantly and positively change social and economic outcomes for black South Africans (and would probably help economic growth generally).
Without strict morality laws, South Africa might be more open culturally to the rest of the world. With just a little bit of tweaking, the republic referendum could go the other way (i.e. Namibia doesn't vote, voting age remains 21, marginally larger Anglo population).
Such a South Africa may find it easier to extricate itself from minority rule, but it could easily go the other way. Would they eventually be forcibly expelled from the Commonwealth? Would less isolation strengthen white minority rule? Would the white government face a stronger insurgency or a weaker one from a more prosperous black population? What is the effect on Rhodesia? Lots of open questions.
But
1948 was pretty close thing. If the NP doesn't eliminate their republican plank or doesn't cooperate with the Afrikaner Party, they could easily lose. They only won because the rural districts (which they did better in) had fewer voters than urban ones. And afterwards their parliamentary majorities were helped by extensive gerrymandering, I believe.
So, UP South Africa in the 50s will be a rather different, more 'liberal' (loosely defined for a racial oligarchy) place. White immigration will not be restricted, meaning a more 'Anglo' white populace. Television will come in the 50s, not the 70s. Grand Apartheid will not come about, which will make black national consciousness harder to suppress as time goes on. The lack of a Bantu Education Act will probably significantly and positively change social and economic outcomes for black South Africans (and would probably help economic growth generally).
Without strict morality laws, South Africa might be more open culturally to the rest of the world. With just a little bit of tweaking, the republic referendum could go the other way (i.e. Namibia doesn't vote, voting age remains 21, marginally larger Anglo population).
Such a South Africa may find it easier to extricate itself from minority rule, but it could easily go the other way. Would they eventually be forcibly expelled from the Commonwealth? Would less isolation strengthen white minority rule? Would the white government face a stronger insurgency or a weaker one from a more prosperous black population? What is the effect on Rhodesia? Lots of open questions.