Avoid Apartheid?

It really depends on what you mean by 'Apartheid.' You're going to see really vicious oppression of blacks, mixed-race, and Asians even without the federal-level laws and without Grand Apartheid.

But

1948 was pretty close thing. If the NP doesn't eliminate their republican plank or doesn't cooperate with the Afrikaner Party, they could easily lose. They only won because the rural districts (which they did better in) had fewer voters than urban ones. And afterwards their parliamentary majorities were helped by extensive gerrymandering, I believe.

So, UP South Africa in the 50s will be a rather different, more 'liberal' (loosely defined for a racial oligarchy) place. White immigration will not be restricted, meaning a more 'Anglo' white populace. Television will come in the 50s, not the 70s. Grand Apartheid will not come about, which will make black national consciousness harder to suppress as time goes on. The lack of a Bantu Education Act will probably significantly and positively change social and economic outcomes for black South Africans (and would probably help economic growth generally).

Without strict morality laws, South Africa might be more open culturally to the rest of the world. With just a little bit of tweaking, the republic referendum could go the other way (i.e. Namibia doesn't vote, voting age remains 21, marginally larger Anglo population).

Such a South Africa may find it easier to extricate itself from minority rule, but it could easily go the other way. Would they eventually be forcibly expelled from the Commonwealth? Would less isolation strengthen white minority rule? Would the white government face a stronger insurgency or a weaker one from a more prosperous black population? What is the effect on Rhodesia? Lots of open questions.
 
Yeah, it may have been more appropriate to post this in the post-1900 forum. Very interesting discussion everyone, please keep it up.

Say apartheid doesn't come about. Would the more racist elements try and establish/move to a territory where they could become the majority?

I don't see how that would work, since a.) the livable parts already have large black populations b.) the whole system was dependent on artificially cheap black labor, white separatism means a huge decline in living standards c.) the government would never let them.

If they really care about living in a white-majority area, they can move to Europe (a lot of them might, considering nearly half a million whites emigrated after the OTL end of white oligarchy).
 
Also if you were to get rid of Apartheid you would deprive the world of one of its greatest statesmen - Nelson Mandela.

You would also be butterflying away many heros of the struggle against apartheid i.e. Hector Pietersen, Steve Biko et al.
 
Also if you were to get rid of Apartheid you would deprive the world of one of its greatest statesmen - Nelson Mandela.

You would also be butterflying away many heros of the struggle against apartheid i.e. Hector Pietersen, Steve Biko et al.

Hector Pietersen wasn't a hero of the struggle, he was an unlucky kid who was in the wrong place in the wrong time.

Getting shot by the apartheid police doesn't make a person a hero.
 
That might be true; however most SA'n history books would beg to differ. Hell, he has a monument, and a square named after him, and an annual national holiday dedicated in part to his memory.

Steve Biko, likewise was killed by the Apartheid police during a violent interrogation; and Mandela by the same stroke can hardly be classed as a hero for sitting in a jailcell for 27 years, but he achieved what was considered impossible on his release
 
That might be true; however most SA'n history books would beg to differ. Hell, he has a monument, and a square named after him, and an annual national holiday dedicated in part to his memory.

Steve Biko, likewise was killed by the Apartheid police during a violent interrogation; and Mandela by the same stroke can hardly be classed as a hero for sitting in a jailcell for 27 years, but he achieved what was considered impossible on his release

Pietersen is the face of the 1976 revolt, that doesn't make him a hero. He didn't lead it, he was shot. Tsietsi Mashinini should rather have a monument to him.

And Mandela had already achieved a lot by the time he went to jail. Established the ANC Youth League, established MK, along with Tambo, the first black lawyers to have offices in Johannesburg. Mandela had already played an important role in the Struggle by the time he went to jail.

And I do know how Biko died, thanks for the history lesson though.

:rolleyes:
 
Pietersen didn't lead it; but the picture of Mbuyisa Makhubo carrying him after he'd been shot, with his sister, Antoinette alongside them, became world famous. And today Pietersen is one of the only leaders of ther 16 June 1976 student protest who most of the South African youth (born post 1994) remember, and thus identify with the protest.

Hector_pieterson.jpg


Go find a South African born post 1990 and ask who Tsietsi Mashininiwas. They might look at you with saucers for eyes, and someone might be able to know who he is. Ask the same person who Hector Pieterson is, and they'll know.

Sad, but true, it's unfortunately how history works. More likely to be remembered because you were shot and killed, than for leading the protest.
 
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