Avis Spain

So let's start with a pod: Afonso, son of John II survives his "horse riding accident" in 1491. His marriage with the Trastamara princess Isabella is consumated and produces an heir late in 1492.

Immediately, the Catholic monarchs of Castile/Aragon do not get their daughters dowry back. The lack of dowry could put the reconquista on hold, I'm not sure.

Columbus ,will say, leaves Spain empty handed. We will also say that Juan, the Catholic monarchs son, still passes, leaving the eldest Trastamara daughter as their heir.

How would the unification of Spain be affected?

With the whole penisula united, how would a united Iberia approach colonialism? Would it basically be the Portuguese model, and a focus on Africa and Asia, but backed up by the rest of Spain ?
 
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So let's start with a pod: Afonso, son of John II survives his "horse riding accident" in 1491. His marriage with the Trastamara princess Isabella is consumated and produces an heir late in 1492.

Immediately, the Catholic monarchs of Castile/Aragon do not get their daughters dowry back. The lack of dowry could put the reconquista on hold, I'm not sure.

Columbus ,will say, leaves Spain empty handed. We will also say that Juan, the Catholic monarchs son, still passes, leaving the eldest Trastamara daughter as their heir.

How would the unification of Spain be affected?

With the whole penisula united, how would a united Iberia approach colonialism? Would it basically be the Portuguese model, and a focus on Africa and Asia, but backed up by the rest of Spain ?

This is actually an interesting idea. A nice twist on the Miguel da Paz survives I was expecting when I first saw the title.
Here's a thread of mine that might give you some thoughts
 
We can't know for sure what kind of monarch Afonso will be, but, if he's anything like his father, the Castillan nobility will be in a very unconfortable position...

I doubt Afonso would be able to pull off the same level of centralization in an United Iberia as his father did on Portugal. But I could see him trying.

Regarding colonialism, the imense size and power of the Castillan aristocracy almost surely means more wars and Imperial conquest than in OTL's Portuguese model
 
In case somebody was unaware, there is an excellent timeline on this subject on this site.

I would've also recommended it. Alongside The Prince of the Peace Survives and Two Lucky Princes. However, the premise in those is Isabel's son (from her second marriage) survives. Manuel was a far more conciliatory sovereign than João II was. In fact, Spain said jump and Manuel asked how high? João was regarded with suspicion by Fernando & Isabel (not without reason) - and maybe someone with a better knowledge of Portuguese history can correct me, but wasn't the reason for Affonso's riding "accident" really a murder that was in Spanish interests?

I expect that if his son survives, João II might live a bit longer, too
 
I would've also recommended it. Alongside The Prince of the Peace Survives and Two Lucky Princes. However, the premise in those is Isabel's son (from her second marriage) survives. Manuel was a far more conciliatory sovereign than João II was. In fact, Spain said jump and Manuel asked how high? João was regarded with suspicion by Fernando & Isabel (not without reason) - and maybe someone with a better knowledge of Portuguese history can correct me, but wasn't the reason for Affonso's riding "accident" really a murder that was in Spanish interests?

I expect that if his son survives, João II might live a bit longer, too
Yes the involvement of Ferdinand of Aragon in the deaths of both Alfonso of Portugal and Francis Phoebus of Navarre was suspected for long time and they were both big trouble for Ferdinand and Isabella. João was, like his father, an enemy of Ferdinand and Isabella while Manuel was their friend and ally
 

raharris1973

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Now you say Iberia is united, but it seems to start with Portugal and Castille united. What is bringing Aragon into this union?
 
Now you say Iberia is united, but it seems to start with Portugal and Castille united. What is bringing Aragon into this union?
No, that would be Portugal united to Castile-Aragon. This Isabella is the eldest daughter of Isabella of Castile and Ferdinand of Aragon who married first João’s son and heir and then his successor Manuel I of Portugal
 
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An early Iberian Union in the 16th century could have interesting butterflies.
IOTL, Portugal officially discovered Brazil in 1500, but only started serious efforts to colonize it in the 1530’s. Perhaps the Treaty of Tordesillas would be seen as moot earlier than IOTL, and all of South America becomes property of the Iberian Union, or de jure seen as such.
Conversely, the presence of allied Castilian (maybe also Aragonese) ships and sailors in the Portuguese imperial fleets could turn the Luso-Turkish naval conflicts on the Indian Ocean on their head. Could this result in a more well-estabilished Iberian presence in Yemen, Muscat, and the Persian Gulf to complement an expanded Goa?
 
An early Iberian Union in the 16th century could have interesting butterflies.
IOTL, Portugal officially discovered Brazil in 1500, but only started serious efforts to colonize it in the 1530’s. Perhaps the Treaty of Tordesillas would be seen as moot earlier than IOTL, and all of South America becomes property of the Iberian Union, or de jure seen as such.
Conversely, the presence of allied Castilian (maybe also Aragonese) ships and sailors in the Portuguese imperial fleets could turn the Luso-Turkish naval conflicts on the Indian Ocean on their head. Could this result in a more well-estabilished Iberian presence in Yemen, Muscat, and the Persian Gulf to complement an expanded Goa?
well everything will depend from how strong is the union of the Crowns. OTL union between Castile and Aragon was pretty loose and I can not see it changing so quicly with the addition of Portugal... Is more likley who we will see something much more alike to the OTL union under Philip II (but obviously without any alternative claimant to any of the crowns)
 
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