Automobile industry in Europe - 1990-2000 - how to develop a timeline for a "What If" scenario?

I am someone interested in history, but also an automobile enthusiast too.

Here, in this scenario, I am trying to work out an alternate history/ alternate timeline for the automobile industry in Europe in terms of the politics, the automobiles available, etc. (combining both my interests).

I've gone with the "write what you know" philosophy.

I am very new to writing alternate history and not sure where to start with alternate timelines.

Primarily, I am focused on the United Kingdom (but also on two other major European nations, Italy and another one to be determined).

I'm focusing mainly on these manufacturers - General Motors (Opel, Vauxhall, Chevrolet, Cadillac), Ford, Fiat, Rover and Volkswagen-Audi Group (VAG - Volkswagen, SEAT) and also Chrysler as well.

Toyota is also important here too - but these are the major seven in this scenario.

Previously, with history, most of my history research has been about assessing sources for reliability, primary sources etc.

My POD (point of divergence) is January 1990, starting off the 1990s. Everything pre-1990 happened, from 1990 onwards is where I am making the changes for this "What if?" scenario.

I would appreciate any help and guidance on how to develop a timeline and alternate history from people on here who know more about the topic. I am trying to work out how to make the history seem plausible.
 
Just try your hand. What's your POD-I know something about the auto industry, so I could help.

I will.

In this alternate timeline:

- 1990: Ford launches the Mustang in Europe to compete against Japanese sports coupes, some 25 years before it launched in our timeline. However, it's only available with the 4.9-liter/225hp V8 petrol engine in LX or GT trim for coupe, and GT for convertible.

Also in this year, the Volkswagen Passat gets a two-door coupe version that has only GL or GT trim levels, with the GL having a 2.0-litre/114hp 4-cylinder, and the GT getting the 2.0-litre/136bhp 16v 4-cylinder petrol. The coupe is a two-door sedan, but it has styling like the four-door sedan, and is priced around the same level as other two-door sedans - BMW 3-Series, Honda Prelude etc.
This is not aimed at buyers of the contemporary Corrado coupe, instead being sold as a luxury alternative.

Chrysler launch the Dodge Dakota pickup in Europe, but not the United Kingdom, where it is marketed as the Chrysler Dakota. The only engine is a 3.9-litre/125hp V6 petrol (Chrysler's LA V6 engine) and it is available in Sport or LE trims. This is marketed as a rival to the Toyota Hilux and Nissan Truck (both of which sold well in Europe at the time). It sells well in Germany and the Netherlands but not in all of Europe.

The Opel Senator gets a new GT version (Vauxhall Senator GSi in United Kingdom) which has the same 3.0-litre/201hp 12-valve 6-cylinder petrol, but the car is tuned for a sportier drive, and gains alloy wheels like this Carlton 3000 GSi.

- 1991: Rover launches the Metro with a four-door saloon version, available only with the 1.4-litre/76hp K-Series engine as 1.4 SL and GS. Prices are: 1.4 SL 4-door saloon - £9,524 ; 1.4 GS 4-door saloon - £10,022. For the 1.4 SL, it's priced at £879 more than a Vauxhall Nova 1.4 Luxe (which was equivalent in size to it).

Volkswagen updates the Passat coupe with a few new colors added to the palette, and other personalization options.

General Motors: The Opel Calibra gets the Opel Vectra's 1.8-litre/90bhp 4-cylinder (GM's Family II engine) for a basic-spec 1.8i and 1.8i S model that are sold in Europe. In the United Kingdom this is marketed as the Vauxhall Calibra 1.8i. This is a basic-spec model that is available only with black, white or red colors, and has wheelcovers instead of alloy wheels, and standard equipment is more limited than on the 2.0i models. In the United Kingdom it is priced at £13,685 (the 2.0i coupe is £15,785 - so this 1.8i model is £2,100 cheaper).

Fiat launch an all-wheel-drive version of the Tempra in Italy, Germany, Austria, Switzerland and the United Kingdom. This is available only as a 2.0 ie SX model with the 2.0-litre/113bhp 4-cylinder engine, and sold in both saloon and estate bodystyles, and marketed as the 2.0 ie SX 4x4. In the United Kingdom it is priced at around £1,500 more than a 1.8 ie SX sedan. This was intended to compete with the trend for cars like the Ford Sierra 2.9i 4x4 and Vauxhall Cavalier 2000 GSi 4x4, when there was such a trend for four-wheel-drive saloons.

Ford offers the Transit dropside and minibus with a 2.0 Bonus Plus special edition in order to increase sales (in this timeline, the Transit dropside and minibus have the 2.0 petrol engine, most sources on 1986-1994 Ford Transit seem to indicate it was diesel-only). The Bonus is a special edition with beige or white paint, and these wheelcovers.

It is intended to drive up sales before the 1992 facelift comes along.

Ford also looks into plans to import the high-powered Falcon from Australia only as the Falcon S XR8 sedan or stationwagon, with Ford's 4.9-litre/218hp Windsor V8. It would be priced higher than the Scorpio sedan and wagon, and marketed as a flagship sports sedan. The Falcon would be priced so as not to compete with the Scorpio, and aimed at buyers who wanted something sporty and practical, and that was a Ford. This would be marketed as a rival to the BMW M5 and Mercedes-Benz sedans on the market in 1991.

---

This is my timeline, so far. Feel free to give constructive criticism or pick holes in it.
 
Interesting you'd be kicking off with the Mustang and Dakota sold in Europe.

Its not necessarily a bad idea, but the Dakota hasn't got the durability of the Toyota Hilux or the Nissan Hardbody but would likely be better equipped. Also remember that Chrysler is slowly rebuilding their European operations at the time, as they offloaded all of it to PSA Peugeot Citroen as part of their 1978-1981 bankruptcy bailout, which is going to affect the sales of the Dakota (and everything else Chrysler sells).

If you're going to make the Mustang work against far more sophisticated (and better handling) Japanese and European cars, Euro-spec Mustangs would have to get far better dampers (particularly in the rear) and much better brakes and tires, and be sold for a reasonable price. In 1990 you're up against the BMW M3 and the Mercedes 190 Cosworth (and the Alfa Romeo 75 V6 to a point as well) that would likely be competitors. A Fox-platform Mustang would need substantial improvements to even think of being in the same category as those.
 
@saltburn861 As a car guy, I really like your plans, I'm definitely reading it. Any format could work for this timeline.

@Oppo: I'm trying to work out the ramifications of these decisions - would the cars have been popular and profitable for the era? (I'm trying to keep it realistic for the 1990s).

@TheMann: The Ford Mustang would be marketed more as a novelty car, and the Dakota is largely being marketed as American, as a niche-market vehicle (I think that American expats in Europe were fairly common in the 1990s, unless I'm wrong on immigration here).

Thank you for your point regarding the Mustang, how I'd fix those problems is one issue to consider.
 
@Oppo: I'm trying to work out the ramifications of these decisions - would the cars have been popular and profitable for the era? (I'm trying to keep it realistic for the 1990s).
I'll give my thoughts.
- 1990: Ford launches the Mustang in Europe to compete against Japanese sports coupes, some 25 years before it launched in our timeline. However, it's only available with the 4.9-liter/225hp V8 petrol engine in LX or GT trim for coupe, and GT for convertible.
It may not be that popular, as it would have to compete against a wider range of cars. It's possible that if they decide to bring it a bit over earlier, Ford goes with their initial plan to have the OTL Ford Probe as a Mustang to try and increase its popularity in Europe.
Also in this year, the Volkswagen Passat gets a two-door coupe version that has only GL or GT trim levels, with the GL having a 2.0-litre/114hp 4-cylinder, and the GT getting the 2.0-litre/136bhp 16v 4-cylinder petrol. The coupe is a two-door sedan, but it has styling like the four-door sedan, and is priced around the same level as other two-door sedans - BMW 3-Series, Honda Prelude etc.
This is not aimed at buyers of the contemporary Corrado coupe, instead being sold as a luxury alternative.
I think that would work well, as Merc did the CLK around the same time. If they keep it up, a B5 coupe would look really nice.
Chrysler launch the Dodge Dakota pickup in Europe, but not the United Kingdom, where it is marketed as the Chrysler Dakota. The only engine is a 3.9-litre/125hp V6 petrol (Chrysler's LA V6 engine) and it is available in Sport or LE trims. This is marketed as a rival to the Toyota Hilux and Nissan Truck (both of which sold well in Europe at the time). It sells well in Germany and the Netherlands but not in all of Europe.
The Dakota is bigger than the Hilux/Truck, and Chrysler's European efforts have never been a success.
The Opel Senator gets a new GT version (Vauxhall Senator GSi in United Kingdom) which has the same 3.0-litre/201hp 12-valve 6-cylinder petrol, but the car is tuned for a sportier drive, and gains alloy wheels like this Carlton 3000 GSi.
I think it may hurt the Carlton's sales, but it could help bring Opel/Vauxhall more upmarket.
- 1991: Rover launches the Metro with a four-door saloon version, available only with the 1.4-litre/76hp K-Series engine as 1.4 SL and GS. Prices are: 1.4 SL 4-door saloon - £9,524 ; 1.4 GS 4-door saloon - £10,022. For the 1.4 SL, it's priced at £879 more than a Vauxhall Nova 1.4 Luxe (which was equivalent in size to it).
Small hatchbacks are much more common in Europe than in America, and the Metro was already popular. However, Rover might kill the Maestro earlier than OTL (they had been positioning in as a budget model). An earlier death to the Maestro might have the Chinese auto industry start earlier (as Etsong bought the rights to the car).
Fiat launch an all-wheel-drive version of the Tempra in Italy, Germany, Austria, Switzerland and the United Kingdom. This is available only as a 2.0 ie SX model with the 2.0-litre/113bhp 4-cylinder engine, and sold in both saloon and estate bodystyles, and marketed as the 2.0 ie SX 4x4. In the United Kingdom it is priced at around £1,500 more than a 1.8 ie SX sedan. This was intended to compete with the trend for cars like the Ford Sierra 2.9i 4x4 and Vauxhall Cavalier 2000 GSi 4x4, when there was such a trend for four-wheel-drive saloons.
I like that idea, perhaps they make a turbo Abarth version to go against the Evo and the WRX.
Ford offers the Transit dropside and minibus with a 2.0 Bonus Plus special edition in order to increase sales (in this timeline, the Transit dropside and minibus have the 2.0 petrol engine, most sources on 1986-1994 Ford Transit seem to indicate it was diesel-only). The Bonus is a special edition with beige or white paint, and these wheelcovers.
I know practically nothing about vans, so I can't really say anything.
Ford also looks into plans to import the high-powered Falcon from Australia only as the Falcon S XR8 sedan or stationwagon, with Ford's 4.9-litre/218hp Windsor V8. It would be priced higher than the Scorpio sedan and wagon, and marketed as a flagship sports sedan. The Falcon would be priced so as not to compete with the Scorpio, and aimed at buyers who wanted something sporty and practical, and that was a Ford. This would be marketed as a rival to the BMW M5 and Mercedes-Benz sedans on the market in 1991.
That would be really interesting. If it's successful, GM could also bring over Holdens earlier than OTL. The ute could also become a more prevelent bodystyle outside of Australia as well.
 
f you're going to make the Mustang work against far more sophisticated (and better handling) Japanese and European cars, Euro-spec Mustangs would have to get far better dampers (particularly in the rear) and much better brakes and tires, and be sold for a reasonable price. In 1990 you're up against the BMW M3 and the Mercedes 190 Cosworth (and the Alfa Romeo 75 V6 to a point as well) that would likely be competitors. A Fox-platform Mustang would need substantial improvements to even think of being in the same category as those.

A BMW M3 sold for over twice as much in 1990 in the US, roughly $32k vs. $15 for a GT, LX cheaper yet

That was the point of the Fox cars, cheap performance. If you want an M3 fighter, the 1990 Saleen Mustang was around $24k, if you want a little more power and a lot better handling
 
A BMW M3 sold for over twice as much in 1990 in the US, roughly $32k vs. $15 for a GT, LX cheaper yet

That was the point of the Fox cars, cheap performance. If you want an M3 fighter, the 1990 Saleen Mustang was around $24k, if you want a little more power and a lot better handling
Saleen is a tuning company, they aren't competing with BMW.
 
Saleen is a tuning company, they aren't competing with BMW.
Think Ford in Europe couldn't buy the same aftermarket parts as Saleen and install them in EuroMustangs?
If users want better handling, guess what?
those parts were available, and when added, they became the SVT Mustang Cobra a few years after 1990
 
I'll give my thoughts.

It may not be that popular, as it would have to compete against a wider range of cars. It's possible that if they decide to bring it a bit over earlier, Ford goes with their initial plan to have the OTL Ford Probe as a Mustang to try and increase its popularity in Europe.

I think that would work well, as Merc did the CLK around the same time. If they keep it up, a B5 coupe would look really nice.

The Dakota is bigger than the Hilux/Truck, and Chrysler's European efforts have never been a success.

I think it may hurt the Carlton's sales, but it could help bring Opel/Vauxhall more upmarket.

Small hatchbacks are much more common in Europe than in America, and the Metro was already popular. However, Rover might kill the Maestro earlier than OTL (they had been positioning in as a budget model). An earlier death to the Maestro might have the Chinese auto industry start earlier (as Etsong bought the rights to the car).

I like that idea, perhaps they make a turbo Abarth version to go against the Evo and the WRX.

I know practically nothing about vans, so I can't really say anything.

That would be really interesting. If it's successful, GM could also bring over Holdens earlier than OTL. The ute could also become a more prevelent bodystyle outside of Australia as well.

@Oppo: back in 1991, I don't think they had the WRX - was the Opel Vectra 2000 4x4 and Ford Sierra 2.0i 4x4 hatchback, and Ford Sierra Sapphire RS Cosworth (Sierra RS Cosworth 4x4 4-door in the Netherlands) (source: autovergelijker, autoweek.nl) its only competitors?

Back in 1991, the Lancer Evolution wasn't sold in Europe, but I believe there was the Mitsubishi Galant VR-4 for the closest thing in the 1990s (Wikipedia source).

Good point on the Senator, though.

As for the Rover Metro sedan, it was designed for North America and Asia - but I think they'd have to rename it in the U.S. due to trademark conflicts with General Motors over the Geo Metro sold there (in this AH, Rover is slightly more successful than it was in real-life).

The Maestro continues until 1999 as a bargain-basement Rover, similar to the modern-day Volkswagen City Golf (2007-2010) sold in Canada, and from 1993 onwards, is reduced to 1.3 S, 1.6 Si and 1.6 SLi variants (in keeping with Rover policy on names at the time).

I'm working out what the ramifications would be of Rover ending its tie-up with Honda in the 1990s and working with General Motors - would that cause more problems than it solves? (for example, a new Rover sedan based on the General Motors H-body or G platform).

What would be the ramifications of Rover, in this AH scenario, working with General Motors, instead of BMW? British Aerospace (BAe) sells Rover to General Motors rather than BMW in 1994 in this AH and I'm looking at WI this decision had gone ahead.

Could Rover be seen as a British-ized Buick alternative?

As for the last part, I agree with your point. The only problem is - where would a Falcon ute fit in amongst the P100 (Sierra-based ute) and Transit dropside pick-ups? (unlike in OTL, the Ranger sold in the U.S. is sold in selected European countries).
 
Think Ford in Europe couldn't buy the same aftermarket parts as Saleen and install them in EuroMustangs?
If users want better handling, guess what?
those parts were available, and when added, they became the SVT Mustang Cobra a few years after 1990
Don't even have to. Just raiding FoMoCo parts bin could make a better 'stang: 2.3 turbo & intercooler off the Scorpio, dual plug head from the Ranger; mix in improved suspension bits, & maybe new body panels...
 
@Oppo: back in 1991, I don't think they had the WRX - was the Opel Vectra 2000 4x4 and Ford Sierra 2.0i 4x4 hatchback, and Ford Sierra Sapphire RS Cosworth (Sierra RS Cosworth 4x4 4-door in the Netherlands) (source: autovergelijker, autoweek.nl) its only competitors?

Back in 1991, the Lancer Evolution wasn't sold in Europe, but I believe there was the Mitsubishi Galant VR-4 for the closest thing in the 1990s (Wikipedia source).

Good point on the Senator, though.

As for the Rover Metro sedan, it was designed for North America and Asia - but I think they'd have to rename it in the U.S. due to trademark conflicts with General Motors over the Geo Metro sold there (in this AH, Rover is slightly more successful than it was in real-life).

The Maestro continues until 1999 as a bargain-basement Rover, similar to the modern-day Volkswagen City Golf (2007-2010) sold in Canada, and from 1993 onwards, is reduced to 1.3 S, 1.6 Si and 1.6 SLi variants (in keeping with Rover policy on names at the time).

I'm working out what the ramifications would be of Rover ending its tie-up with Honda in the 1990s and working with General Motors - would that cause more problems than it solves? (for example, a new Rover sedan based on the General Motors H-body or G platform).

What would be the ramifications of Rover, in this AH scenario, working with General Motors, instead of BMW? British Aerospace (BAe) sells Rover to General Motors rather than BMW in 1994 in this AH and I'm looking at WI this decision had gone ahead.

Could Rover be seen as a British-ized Buick alternative?

As for the last part, I agree with your point. The only problem is - where would a Falcon ute fit in amongst the P100 (Sierra-based ute) and Transit dropside pick-ups? (unlike in OTL, the Ranger sold in the U.S. is sold in selected European countries).
The WRX was introduced in 1992, the STI in 1994. IIRC, the WRX was brought to the U.S. in 2002 and the STI in 2004.
 
In September 1993 Volvo and Ford announced plans that they were going to merge(according to sources i have found they would have been the 6th largest car company in the World), but the board of Volvo opposed the merger and PG Gyllenhammar left the Company.
 
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