What would happen to Austro-Hungary if the Central Powers win? If disintegration and collapse are in its immediate future even if it is on the winning side, what does it have to do to keep itself together and survive the Postwar world?
The United States of Greater Austria or dissolution. They would most certainly not annex most of Serbia and Montenegro, the ethnic situation was complicated enough as it was. They will, however, take some areas in the Romanian Carpathians for defensive purposes.
United States of Greater Austria? Wow, cool, that'd have been a really interesting concept...
What would happen to Austro-Hungary if the Central Powers win? If disintegration and collapse are in its immediate future even if it is on the winning side, what does it have to do to keep itself together and survive the Postwar world?
I think the empire will go on, but eventually perhaps as a republic.
Regards
Steffen Redbeard
Agreed on all counts. AH needs a very early win, and also to be considerate at the peace table. Maybe a change of dinasty in Serbia.This depends in large part when the CP wins. It is hard to see AH survivng in a even a reworked form if the war lasts until 1918. The deconstruction had gone too far.
If the win is very early though Count Tisza is going to be a major stumbling block.
I agree that Serbia and Montenergo would not be annexed, only some relatively sparesely populated but strategically important areas.
Poland is another matter. They may end up with a large chunk of Congress Poland. While the Poles were normally the most Kaisertreu of the Slavs if nearly all of Poland is in their hands I could see major problems with Pilsudski.
Agreed on all counts. AH needs a very early win, and also to be considerate at the peace table. Maybe a change of dinasty in Serbia.
If they want to keep Italy allied (or at least a friendly neutral) there is an easy way: trust the German advice, and give Italy compensation for Bosnia and North Albania. Since 1900, AH always followed a very hostile foreign policy against Italy.
I believe there are some bastard Obrenovics around, and IIRC the Habsburgs always got on well with that dynasty
I'm not sure what you mean here - compensation for them in what way ? North Albania, is that an area annexed by Montenegro ? But how is Italy needing compensation for it ?
Best Regards
Grey Wolf
Why?
In 1915 Karl Stürgk is Austrian (Cisleithanien being abolished) prime minister and he is part of Nationalverband and conservative circles. Yes, while goverments is authoritian, he did stop archduke Friedrich and cont von Hötzendorf from actually establishing military dictatorship in Bohemia, regardless of what I said before (a hyperbole).