Austro-Hungary gives Bosnia to Serbia

Let's say that Franz Joseph died earlier, somewhere in 1907, and Franz Ferdinand became a new kaiser. Immediately upon coming to power he comes into conflict with the Hungarians around the new Ausgleich. Meanwhile, in Bosnia, Serbian rebellion against the Austro-Hungarian government began to spread. Fearing the complete collapse of the state and war with Russia, Franz Ferdinand decided in 1908 instead of annexation, to leave Bosnia and Herzegovina to the Kingdom of Serbia.

Obviously, there is no Sarajevo assassination in 1914. What's happening next?
 
Let's say that Franz Joseph died earlier, somewhere in 1907, and Franz Ferdinand became a new kaiser. Immediately upon coming to power he comes into conflict with the Hungarians around the new Ausgleich. Meanwhile, in Bosnia, Serbian rebellion against the Austro-Hungarian government began to spread. Fearing the complete collapse of the state and war with Russia, Franz Ferdinand decided in 1908 instead of annexation, to leave Bosnia and Herzegovina to the Kingdom of Serbia.

Obviously, there is Sarajevo assassination in 1914. What's happening next?
Some Croats may be angry.
 

Big Smoke

Banned
Cede the western Hercegovina to Croatia, maybe come of the Northern mostly Boshniak counties as well to make the borders more natural, and you'd end up with a better situation overall, possibly even resulting in a Serbia that orients itself South rather than North (i.e. Orthodox Serbia, Montenegro, Bosnia, Macedonia, and Bulgaria forming a Yugoslavia, rather than orienting towards Catholic Croatia.), resulting much better relations with Austria-Hungary and a much more stable 'Yugoslavia' in the long run.
 

Germaniac

Donor
The Ottomans won't stand for this. Bosnia is still apart of the Empire (de jure; de facto controlled by Austria-Hungary) and granting the region to Serbia would be unacceptable.

The Austrians would be handing a huge win to Russia and to Sazonov for nothing in return. There is a chance that it is partitioned, but now your going to face Italian pressure and anger over their lack of compensation. Montenegro is going to demand territories as well, though they are far less likely to gain anything.

I'd say an earlier First Balkan War could be possible but Serbia, Bulgaria, and Greece have not completed their military modernization (and neither had the Ottomans for that matter) and Greece specifically was only even close to being prepared to face the Ottomans in 1912.
 
Shot by whom? Croatians or Black Hand Serbian nationalists?
Sure, why not? Croatia speaks Serbian, so it's obviously Serbian lands!

Here's the "historical" map the Black Hand used to masturbate to, notice someting?
latest
 
But FF avoiding Sarajevo to get shot in Zagreb would be very disappointing

Disappointing yet very likely. Croatian revolutionaries almost blew up FF's cousin, Archduke Leopold in OTL - and this guy wasn't even important, he was like winner of the Most Irrelevant Archduke award.
 
Is it possible to pacify the Croats, by establishing an early Yugoslavia? With Croats, Bosnians and Serbs? AH would retain control by having the Kingdom by either having Ferdinand as King of Yugoslavia as well as Austro-Hungary or having a loyal Hapsburg marry a local Slavic family. The Yugoslavia would be a very decentralised state to pacify the different ethnicities.
 
Angry Croatians probably

Makes sense, although the Croats were loyal to the Habsburgs, often not receiving nothing in return.

Cede the western Hercegovina to Croatia, maybe come of the Northern mostly Boshniak counties as well to make the borders more natural, and you'd end up with a better situation overall, possibly even resulting in a Serbia that orients itself South rather than North (i.e. Orthodox Serbia, Montenegro, Bosnia, Macedonia, and Bulgaria forming a Yugoslavia, rather than orienting towards Catholic Croatia.), resulting much better relations with Austria-Hungary and a much more stable 'Yugoslavia' in the long run.

Wasn't such Yugoslavia proposed in 19th century? I don't believe such Yugoslavia would succeed, as long as the issue of Macedonia is not resolved. And I'm not convinced that Russia would support such a state.

The Ottomans won't stand for this. Bosnia is still apart of the Empire (de jure; de facto controlled by Austria-Hungary) and granting the region to Serbia would be unacceptable.

The Austrians would be handing a huge win to Russia and to Sazonov for nothing in return. There is a chance that it is partitioned, but now your going to face Italian pressure and anger over their lack of compensation. Montenegro is going to demand territories as well, though they are far less likely to gain anything.

I'd say an earlier First Balkan War could be possible but Serbia, Bulgaria, and Greece have not completed their military modernization (and neither had the Ottomans for that matter) and Greece specifically was only even close to being prepared to face the Ottomans in 1912.

Ottomans are pretty much doomed. They will soon be expelled from the Balkans.
I think Franz Ferdinand would work to calm the situation with Russia. What would he get in return? Maybe the Russian renouncement from aspiration in Galicia? There would be less revolutionary Serbs in the state.


Sure, why not? Croatia speaks Serbian, so it's obviously Serbian lands!

Here's the "historical" map the Black Hand used to masturbate to, notice someting?

Yeah, I get it.
 
Is it possible to pacify the Croats, by establishing an early Yugoslavia? With Croats, Bosnians and Serbs? AH would retain control by having the Kingdom by either having Ferdinand as King of Yugoslavia as well as Austro-Hungary or having a loyal Hapsburg marry a local Slavic family. The Yugoslavia would be a very decentralised state to pacify the different ethnicities.

It would still end up as Serbian dominated state, especially after Balkan wars.
Habsburgs didn't allow the unification of Dalmatia with Croatia, let alone something else.
 

Germaniac

Donor
Ottomans are pretty much doomed. They will soon be expelled from the Balkans.

You are DRASTICALLY underestimating the problems here. Regardless of your belief that they are "doomed", you can't discount them. Their territories are protected by the Treaty of Berlin, a treaty signed by every single one of the European Great Powers. You think the Austrians ripping it up, handing over a highly contested piece of land to an antagonistic minor power, and basically telling the rest of Europe to get lost is a REAL fine way of collapsing the system of alliances on the continent.

They already caused a crisis when they annexed it, and only then got away with it because it was better in their hands than another power.

Against Serbia, and likely Montenegro, alone the Ottoman's will win, especially in 1908. The Serbian military reforms have not been completed and the Ottomans had only 10 years before wiped the floor with the Greeks (Granted the military was still a bit of a mess, but more than enough to handle a single Balkan state, which is why three countries who all wanted the same land had to agree to the Balkan League to take them down). The Ottomans will declare war, regardless of their strength. They have no choice, the new "revolutionary" government would simply be shamed into it. Austria will lose ALL its backing in Europe, and even if Russia is happy Serbia got Bosnia for some reason they will see it as a threat to their influence if A-H is trying to curry favor.

I'll be clear, if Austria suffers a fit of madness and unilaterally abrogates the Treaty of Berlin all hell will break lose in Europe.
 
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