Austro-Hungarian civil war

[Alex1guy]

Added on to the above point about population, Austria would presumably have the support of Germany in the civil war. Against that the Hungarians would really only be able receive meaningful aid from Russia and/or Italy. I don't see how they'd be able to win the war at all.

Assuming a CP victory, Russia is going to have it's own problems to deal with...

Germany most likely not enter the war. Berlin will not like it, but it is not they fight.

They are going to be VERY interested. Their largest continental ally is in a state of civil war, right on Germany's border. The last thing they want is the war spilling over and the region destabalized. If they backed AH attacking Serbia in 1914 they are sure as shit going to help put down a revolt.

 

[KACKO]

Assuming a CP victory, Russia is going to have it's own problems to deal with...

If CP wins there is probably going to be pro German/ pro Austrian Ukraine on Hungarians border.

 

[David T]

Hungary had a bigger population than Austria.

I doubt that the Romanians, Slovaks, Ruthenes, Croats, and Serbs of Hungary were itching to support their Magyar overlords against the Austrians--who were considerably more liberal toward *their* Slavic minorities. Nor do I think the German-speaking one-tenth of Hungary would show much enthusiasm.

(Even the 1910 census showed Hungarian-speakers to be only 54.5 percent of the population of Hungary--*excluding* Croatia-Slavonia. And that is no doubt an exaggeration--censuses in central Europe were always biased toward the nation that was taking them.)

I just don't see why there would be such a war. The Hungarians were far from being the most dissatisfied people in the Dual Monarchy.

 

[KACKO]

I just don't see why there would be such a war. The Hungarians were far from being the most dissatisfied people in the Dual Monarchy.

Easy. What if Wienna is pressing equal voting rights on Budapest? Suddenly 46 % of elected officials (if not more) could be not Magyars. That could scare the shit out of ruling Magyar class.

 

[Alex1guy]

If CP wins there is probably going to be pro German/ pro Austrian Ukraine on Hungarians border.

Agreed. They are going to be in no position to be helping. They are going to be heavily marginalized.

 

[Simon]

Your English was just fine, I would not have known you weren't a native writer if you hadn't asked for a review.

Yes, they did want to do either, their minds changed repeatedly about Poland.

Likewise I wouldn't have been able to tell either. Wiking, were they actually considering trying to integrate Poland into the Austro-Hungarian Empire? Have to give them credit for at least thinking big. Crazy, but big. Plus I'd expect Germany to be viewing Poland as in their sphere of influence. I would have thought making a play for influence over an independent Ukraine by getting Archduke Wilhelm of Austria placed on the new throne, with an informal agreement of it being in their sphere whilst Poland is in Germany's, would have been a better plan.

If CP wins there is probably going to be pro German/ pro Austrian Ukraine on Hungarians border.

Actually I don't think there would be, not unless Hungary also stole the Kingdom of Galicia and Lodomeria and Duchy of Bukovina as well since they were part of Cisleithania. They appear to curve around the north/north-east of Hungary until they meet Romania cutting them off. But either way it means even less chance of help from that direction.

 

[Richter von Manthofen]

If the Hungarians seek allies - they probably woukd be from inside the Monarchy as Germany could NOT tolerate a foreign nation to diminish its sphere of influence. o keep GErmany out it must be an internal war.

The Hungarian Subject nations would NOT be available because they hate Hungary more than Austria (If the Hugarians want to break away they probably want to keep their own subject nations )

That leaves tha Italians (hard as that can be seen as Italian meddling), the Czech (likely) and the Poles (if the latter are still within the Monarchy and not part of an independent - sort of - Poland. Poles are difficult as they were "privileged" within the empire.

So we have an Hungarian Czech revolt - it might be long, it might be bloody but I doubt the Rebels will win.

 

[KACKO]

So we have an Hungarian Czech revolt - it might be long, it might be bloody but I doubt the Rebels will win.

Well, depends on how bad are Czechs treated in victoriouse A-H. But even OTL Czechs had a lot of prvilages, pretty decent representation in Wienna and very good social status. Also depends what happened to Czech legionaries. Were they amnested or stayed in exile? Anyvway as far as I know Czechs were if not strictly anti Hungarian, they really didn't like their rulling class and system. If Croats and Slovaks join Wienna in anti Hungarian position, which with some promisses pr even declarations is more likely, Czechs may just stay neutral and possibly negotiate some concession from Wienna just in sake of Panslavic brotherhood. As said before, more Czechs fought for A-H then against it and some in pretty
High positions or important positions in A-H army and navy. And if shortly after WWI Karl I is crowned as Czech king in some political statment, they may be even actively pro Austrian.

 

[Halagaz]

It certainly sounds weird, but in my opinion it's not that implausible that Germany would stay on the sidelines or even give limited support to the separatists, the idea being to annex the "German" Parts of the monarchy and turn the rest into puppet states tightly dependent on Germany.

At any rate, of the Monarchy's domestic nationalities, the Croats and Slovaks would most likely be on Vienna's side, the Romanians - on Vienna's side as well, though they may aim to join Romania. The Serbs would most likely either be on Hungary's side, or attempt to leave the monarchy completely and join with Serbia. And I can't imagine what the Czechs, Poles and Ukrainians would do. The Poles have a historical friendship with the Hungarians, but what if Vienna offers a really good deal?

 

[von Adler]

Lets make some things clear here, ok?

The Second Reich (Imperial Germany) did not have designs on German-speaking parts of Austria and Bohema-Moroavia before ww1, and victorious, they will not have designs after it either.

Austria-Hungary was Germany's only larger, reliable ally and the excellent tool to keep the Balkans in order. The rulers of Imperial Germany did not want more catholics in Germany, that was why they did not annex territory from Austria 1866 and why they sought an alliance immediately afterwards.

Germany's foreign policy after Bismarck's retirement was erratic, and they had problems keeping friends. They knew this, and they were in no way prepared to sacrifice the only real friend they DID have.

Imagine how it would look in the rest of the world - to the Ottomans, for example. The Germans are trying to make the Ottomans a nice ally, investing, helping them reform their army, and suddenly, when there's an ethnic rising in Germany's oldest and most reliable ally, the Germans side with the revolters instead of the legal goverment and the Emperor?! And ATTACKS its ally to annex territory from it? Germany would lose all international influence immediately, and they know it.

The Germans would offer troops, the Austrians would refuse it out of pride, but they would be grateful for the Germans warning the Romanians, Serbs (if there is a Serb state after a central powers victory) and Italians to stay out. Supplies and a cadre of observers and volunteers will be sent, with full diplomatic support.

The Hungarians will find themselves up shit creek with a leaking canoe and no paddle. Their population is smaller, their economy weaker (Austria and Bohemia-Moravia has most of the industry) and their own subjects are not very enthusiastic. Romanians in Transylvania, Slovaks in Slovakia, the small pockets of Germans in western Hungary and Slovakia and Transylvania and the Croats in Croatia will all side with the Emperor against the revolt. Like 1848, the Hungarians will have to fight their own rear as well as the Emperor's troops.

Also, before 1914 the Hungarians themselves were voting with their feet and emigrating in large amounts. 1880-1914 about 700 000 ethnic Hungarians emigrated to the US. 1910 about 10 050 000 prople spoke Hungarian in Austria-Hungary. That is almost 7% of the people leaving!

The Hungarian nobles kept the vote from their subjects by gerrymandering and land ownership requirements and the Hungarian people resented that almost as much as the Croats, Slovaks, Romanians and Serbs in the Kingdom of Hungary.

 

[kalamona]

snip

Yeah, who would revolt and why? Independence revolt is pretty much out of the question, "social" revolt is quite another thing, but in this case its an everyone against the ruling elite thing...

edit:
As i always say, the post 67-pre14 politics of the AH is a very interesting thing. To understand it, first, you have to read a lot of kafka and drink much . By that period, a civil war or anything similar is pretty much out of the question, even later.

 

[KACKO]

Also, before 1914 the Hungarians themselves were voting with their feet and emigrating in large amounts. 1880-1914 about 700 000 ethnic Hungarians emigrated to the US. 1910 about 10 050 000 prople spoke Hungarian in Austria-Hungary. That is almost 7% of the people leaving!

Are these numbers only for Hungarian emigration? In that time a lot of Slovaks and other nationalities emigrated to US. In such a numbers, that it started to be a problem for military. They were not issuing (or at least slowing the process) passports to young men who didn't served their time in military yet.
Around 250 000 of Slovaks emigrated in that period. From population not even 2 mil that's over 10% of population. Of course a lot of them were going ad coming back, buying property and going again. US immigration had these people in their evidence as "Hungarians".

 

[kalamona]

Are these numbers only for Hungarian emigration? In that time a lot of Slovaks and other nationalities emigrated to US. In such a numbers, that it started to be a problem for military. They were not issuing (or at least slowing the process) passports to young men who didn't served their time in military yet.
Around 250 000 of Slovaks emigrated in that period. From population not even 2 mil that's over 10% of population. Of course a lot of them were going ad coming back, buying property and going again. US immigration had these people in their evidence as "Hungarians".

1900-1913, total emigration from hungary: about 1,5 million. I have no idea the ratio of nationalities in this number.
Still, the number is great... yes, the common people voted with his feet.

 

[Delvestius]

I'm currently working on a CP victory. What would most likely happen is there would be communist revolts creeping across Eastern Europe in the 20s. Once they get to Poland and Hungary however, that's when Germany says enough is enough. There's be no successful revolution in Hungary.

 

[lukedalton]

I'm currently working on a CP victory. What would most likely happen is there would be communist revolts creeping across Eastern Europe in the 20s. Once they get to Poland and Hungary however, that's when Germany says enough is enough. There's be no successful revolution in Hungary.

Depend, Germany will have her own problems with the socialist and the old guard, not counting that a civil war can be devoid or at least have other cause than ethnic problems as after the colossal massacre of WWI the old social order was severely weakened...in the best of case and frankly A-H have her big problem even before the war.
The Great war can be a social trauma too big to absorb and frankly even Germany had her limits in propping up a nation who seem every day more unworkable expecially if she had to cling to the rest of the Mitteleuropa dream.

 

[joea64]

If you want to go with a POD of Franz Ferdinand living to become Emperor, then I think the chances of a collision between the Austrian and Hungarian halves of the Empire go up measurably. The Magyar aristocracy was right at the top (or bottom) of FF's list of least favorite people, and a lot of what he had planned had he ascended the throne was aimed at reining in their power by bolstering the rights of various minorities, particularly in the trans-Leithiana area (read: the areas under Budapest's authority).

 

[KACKO]

1900-1913, total emigration from hungary: about 1,5 million. I have no idea the ratio of nationalities in this number.
Still, the number is great... yes, the common people voted with his feet.

Well, emigration from Hungary was mostly due economical reasons. Except Butapest, Gyor and few other industrialized areas in Hungary and Slovakia, it was economical backwater of A-H

I'm currently working on a CP victory. What would most likely happen is there would be communist revolts creeping across Eastern Europe in the 20s. Once they get to Poland and Hungary however, that's when Germany says enough is enough. There's be no successful revolution in Hungary.

Hungarian Red Republic as after few victories basically smashed by Romanians and to some extend Czechoslovaks. If CP is victorious I would bet they would put commies in Russia in line or support whites.

 

[von Adler]

The 700 000 number I quoted was ethnic Hungarians with Hungarian as their first language. As others have stated, the total emigration from the Kingdom of Hungary was even larger.

Emigration was mostly due to economical concerns - but also political ones. People knew that as long as the Hungarian aristocracy had a stranglehold on the political and economic power, things would not change.

 

[kalamona]

The 700 000 number I quoted was ethnic Hungarians with Hungarian as their first language. As others have stated, the total emigration from the Kingdom of Hungary was even larger.

Emigration was mostly due to economical concerns - but also political ones. People knew that as long as the Hungarian aristocracy had a stranglehold on the political and economic power, things would not change.

"Everything is politics." (Recommended movie: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0065067/)

Generally speaking, all the era's political movements (even 1848 and before) was based upon economical grounds. Simply speaking, the empire - and the hungarian part in a greater extent - was at least two steps behind europe in economics.
More or less, the "high politics" of the hungarian parlament in this era was somewhat an illusion - the debates abut the ausgleich, the political crisises did not mattered that much (they renewed the ausgleich every damn time, even where the hardliner 48ers come to power) because there were no other options.
And the dinasty, while they despised the hungarian nobility, could not sack them, because the other option would have been an SDP-agrarian party-liberal hungarian parlament, a thing, that not even FF wanted.

 

[kalamona]

Well, emigration from Hungary was mostly due economical reasons. Except Butapest, Gyor and few other industrialized areas in Hungary and Slovakia, it was economical backwater of A-H

Hungarian Red Republic as after few victories basically smashed by Romanians and to some extend Czechoslovaks. If CP is victorious I would bet they would put commies in Russia in line or support whites.

The HRR has practicalyl no internal support, thus collapsed in an isntant, when they decided to evacuate (re)conquered territories for the survival of the political system - and te people, the soldiers did not supported said system.
Without Vyx, they di not even had a chance to grab the power, and holding it, even victorious... eh, not a chance.
(Even in russia, the "reds" were a minority and needed immense luck to grab and hold the power, trough a long a bloody civil war.)