Austro-Hungarian borders in negotiated peace 1918

That’s something that none of the countries left in between Germany and the Soviet Union would be capable of doing. Their entire defensive strategy was based on lasting long enough for French help to come.
OTL even A-H were not able to hold against Germans/ Prussians though.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
Say America doesn't join world war 1

What would Austro-Hungarian borders be in negotiated peace in mid to late 1918

Russia stayed in the war due to the USA entering the war. The Germans had a peace offer on the table to the Russians to try to get them out of the war. Basically a cease fire in place with no/limited reparations. (Yes, simplifying a bit). Unlikely A-H loses any territory in the east. We might see a minor border adjustment in A-H favor on lands A-H occupies at end of the war. Think of adjustments in the 10's of miles to the next easily defended line (river, ridgeline, etc) that A-H fully controls. Basically , A-H falls back to a good defensive line behind their trenches. Ukraine is a part of Russia still.

Poland will likely have a German Prince and be a German puppet. Is this Prince German or Austrian. We can debate.

Serbia has been largely depopulated. 25% death rate. Serbia is in the Austrian sphere except for what the Bulgarians get. I don't think formal Austrian occupation is likely, at least not in first decade or so.

Italy, likely to be near prewar borders. Maybe some small adjustment in Austria's favor. Italy is tough to knock out of war and A-H is not in the greatest shape, so don't expect very harsh demands here.

We get Finland as German Client state along with the Baltic States. Details depend upon how the war is won.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
Because Austria was barely able to keep themselves together, and had become completely reliable on Germany. Basically their survival was based on Germany's interest in keeping them alive. If Germany negotiate from a position of strength Germany want them to keep being their southern ally, but preferably not be strengthened at all. If Germany has to say give up Alsace- Lorraine and maybe give some minor concessions to poland (say less than OTL), then letting Austria fail and allow the German Austrians to have a referendum to join Germany would look very tempting. At this point in time the only thing keeping the Habsburg monarchy intact anymore was Germany.

Basically Austria would probably not be discussed at all in Versailles, being understood to be a German issue at this point (as you said the Entente doesn't really have any power there, but if Germany doesn't keep Austria afloat Austria would fall on their own. There's likely to be a separate treaty between Germany and the Entente if Austria collapses that decide how the post Austrian landscape would look).

One thing the Entente might ask for is some minor revisions on the Italian border, maybve Gorizia, but considering how bad things went for Italy it's not guaranteed. (or there could be secret provisions that Another Conference is to be held if Austria collapses, with everyone agreeing on that it will happen).

Germany will give up no land in Europe a negotiate peace where the USA does not enter the war. Germany will not demand Austria-Hungary give up any prewar land control post war. Good chance Austria loses no-prewar lands, depends on how one writes the battles of 1917 and 1918 in the ATL.

Since you brought up the west, Germany will keep the French mines near the German prewar border and likely insist that Germany get a border adjustment to make its western border easier to defend. The fate of Belgium will depend upon German/UK negotiations. Neither can force a the preferred solution relation to Belgium and Colonies, so it is interesting to game out.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
No negotiated peace would involve having to give up anything to Poland. If Germany isen't already defeated, the Entente has no way to enforce their will in any way shape or form on Eastern Europe... and has every reason to want to get German co-operation in containing or (preferably) eliminating that Big Red Blob that's eating through the former Russian Empire. A cessesion of AL is a possible demand, yes (Maybe even the sop that gets a full agreement on B-L), but even than Germany can handle the lose if they're in a poor enough position in the West to have to concede to it.

The thing is, though, no matter how tempting annexing Austria is Germany still has ALOT to digest and internal rebuilding to do, while simultaneously already having to deal with consolidating a chaotic new political-economic order out in its eastern gains. Allowing the Habsburgs to collapse and having to rebuild regional influence and stability in the Balkans both on her own, with only partial attention being able to be dedicated to it, and with the hostility of some groups and rise in Red sentiment (such as in Hungary) isen't something she can afford. Restoring Vienna's status quo position before hand is alot less resource intensive and would produce an easier to deal with economic and political situation; a respite she needs if she wants to be able to put out all the fires elsewhere.

Russia probably goes White in a German win. The Reds winning was a really odd, really longshot type event.
 
Am writing just such a scenario as part of a timeline. Austria-Hungary takes everything north and east of the Piave River, occupies Veneto for 15 years, Lombardy for 10 years, takes Montenegro along with southern Congress Poland and a sliver of the Ukraine of OTL. She also takes the passes and pieces of Romanian territory as per OTL.

I'm still writing the post-war plans for Emperor (Blessed) Charles IV though I know where it will go.

Dear Din, the Italian insurgency and expenses...

That’s something that none of the countries left in between Germany and the Soviet Union would be capable of doing. Their entire defensive strategy was based on lasting long enough for French help to come.

Hence the importance of trying to facilitate the formation of the "Little Entente", who could mutually support one another to help contain Red and Far Right influences, dissuading the rocking of the status quo and allowing, in the event of war, them to fight together so they're at the very least capable of bleeding the enemy deep and slowing them down. In this timeline,,A-H is basically a pre-packaged version
 
Russia probably goes White in a German win. The Reds winning was a really odd, really longshot type event.

It flips White in the ends, yes. But the key factor is in 1918-1919 they are perceived as a radical threat and still could win in the eyes of the world if the White forces aren't supported, supplied, and organized into a single unified government and military force capable of conducting decisive military action and govern/state rebuild. This means the international community is going to have to co-operate out of that desire to intervene and balance the interests of all parties in the postwar Russian order.
 

BigBlueBox

Banned
Russia probably goes White in a German win. The Reds winning was a really odd, really longshot type event.
Why? After Brest-Litovsk Germany decided to stay out of the civil war, and by the time the Western front is done Germany would be too exhausted to change its mind. Even if they do intervene against the Bolsheviks I can’t imagine them putting in anymore effort than the Poles and Entente did.
 
Why? After Brest-Litovsk Germany decided to stay out of the civil war, and by the time the Western front is done Germany would be too exhausted to change its mind. Even if they do intervene against the Bolsheviks I can’t imagine them putting in anymore effort than the Poles and Entente did.

1. Without being completely subdued and disarmed by the Entente Germany can at the very least provide greater support for the Freicorp and the self-defence forces of their client regimes White Russian volunteer forces. Better organization, safe havens and experienced officers/cadres to facilitate training, and a mass influx of military grade weapons from the post-war surplus created by the demobalization would give the Western Whites a huge material advantage... right within striking distance of the hearts of Red power.

2. Forces used to occupy Germany IOTL by the Entente are now freed up to bolster OTL's interventions, resulting in stronger regional gains and pressure on the Reds.
 

BigBlueBox

Banned
2. Forces used to occupy Germany IOTL by the Entente are now freed up to bolster OTL's interventions, resulting in stronger regional gains and pressure on the Reds.
With the USA neutral and the Entente being forced into negotiating a peace deal after four years of war, the Entente would be too broken to intervene, leaving all the responsibility to Germany. No reparations means that whatever money they have is going into paying off war debt and rebuilding their countries, not intervening in Russia for Germany’s benefit. France is definitely not going to intervene, whatever military it has left will be staying in France to make sure Germany doesn’t “alter the deal”. France has little to gain from intervening anyways. Britain won’t intervene either. In OTL British dock workers went on strike and refused to load weapons that were to be sent to Poland during the Polish-Soviet war. Imagine how much worse the British public would react if they were told to help the Germans that their government had been vilifying for the past four years. If Germany wins, any effort to stop the Bolsheviks will come from them and them alone (maybe A-H will send a token force, but that’s it).
 
With the USA neutral and the Entente being forced into negotiating a peace deal after four years of war, the Entente would be too broken to intervene, leaving all the responsibility to Germany. No reparations means that whatever money they have is going into paying off war debt and rebuilding their countries, not intervening in Russia for Germany’s benefit. France is definitely not going to intervene, whatever military it has left will be staying in France to make sure Germany doesn’t “alter the deal”. France has little to gain from intervening anyways. Britain won’t intervene either. In OTL British dock workers went on strike and refused to load weapons that were to be sent to Poland during the Polish-Soviet war. Imagine how much worse the British public would react if they were told to help the Germans that their government had been vilifying for the past four years. If Germany wins, any effort to stop the Bolsheviks will come from them and them alone (maybe A-H will send a token force, but that’s it).

... They aren't helping Germany. If anything, allowing Germany to be the sole great power with influence in post-civil war Russia is the BEST way to assist Germany by allowing them to monopolize Eastern European markets as politics; surrounding their client states from B-L and placing personalities and policies in Petrograd that will endorse German interests. GB and France only get a say in the region if they're willing to put weight on the scale.
 

BigBlueBox

Banned
... They aren't helping Germany. If anything, allowing Germany to be the sole great power with influence in post-civil war Russia is the BEST way to assist Germany by allowing them to monopolize Eastern European markets as politics; surrounding their client states from B-L and placing personalities and policies in Petrograd that will endorse German interests. GB and France only get a say in the region if they're willing to put weight on the scale.
This is a negotiated German victory scenario. Geography will guarantee that Germany dominates Eastern Europe for at least a generation, regardless of who wins the Russian civil war. France will be too busy handling communists in Paris to even think of doing something about communists in Russia. The Soviet Union isn’t going to be endorsing German interests.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
Why? After Brest-Litovsk Germany decided to stay out of the civil war, and by the time the Western front is done Germany would be too exhausted to change its mind. Even if they do intervene against the Bolsheviks I can’t imagine them putting in anymore effort than the Poles and Entente did.

If the USA does not enter the war, then Russia likely leaves the war before the Reds take power. And if Russia stays in the war, the butterflies will mean we likely don't see Lenin take over.

Also, if the above is wrong, then Germany may well view the reds much less favorably once France leaves the war.
 
This is a negotiated German victory scenario. Geography will guarantee that Germany dominates Eastern Europe for at least a generation, regardless of who wins the Russian civil war. France will be too busy handling communists in Paris to even think of doing something about communists in Russia. The Soviet Union isn’t going to be endorsing German interests.

If they're willing to put in the effort to integrate/secure them into a broader Mittleuropan economic-political structure... which will also take the better part of at least a generation if Germany focuses her geopolitical energies, spare capital after rebuilding, ect. in the region. Which if you have at least a neutral/unaligned Russia is the speed they'd have to move at in order to get a solid grip on the region before the Bear can recover and contest their hegemony. As for the USSR, I (And BCBlondie) are both asserting the Whites are going to be victorious in any scenario where the rest of the world isen't bogged down in trying to put down one another and can afford to provide much-needed force multipliers and structure, negating the Bolshevik's main advantages and surrounding them; sure, they're not going to be a stable, liberal, or prosperous state without a decade or two of rebuilding, but I think you're overestimating Bolshevik capabilities while dismissing the potential of anti-Bolshevik forces.
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
Germany will give up no land in Europe a negotiate peace where the USA does not enter the war. Germany will not demand Austria-Hungary give up any prewar land control post war. Good chance Austria loses no-prewar lands, depends on how one writes the battles of 1917 and 1918 in the ATL.

Since you brought up the west, Germany will keep the French mines near the German prewar border and likely insist that Germany get a border adjustment to make its western border easier to defend. The fate of Belgium will depend upon German/UK negotiations. Neither can force a the preferred solution relation to Belgium and Colonies, so it is interesting to game out.
If Germany was doing that good they wouldn't go for a negotited peace.
 
This is a negotiated German victory scenario. Geography will guarantee that Germany dominates Eastern Europe for at least a generation, regardless of who wins the Russian civil war. France will be too busy handling communists in Paris to even think of doing something about communists in Russia. The Soviet Union isn’t going to be endorsing German interests.

Will there even be a Soviet Union? An undefeated Germany is far better placed, geographically, to intervene there than the Entente ever was OTL.
 
Will there even be a Soviet Union? An undefeated Germany is far better placed, geographically, to intervene there than the Entente ever was OTL.

In 1918 Germany was very near the end of the rope as well. Defending the Faterland is one thing. Intervention in Russia is a completly different beast. You can send help - materials and officers and maybe some of the remaining professionals. But I think that if Germany tries to seriously intervene with troops after the peace has been signed and postphones demobilisation it will face a revolution of its own.
 
In 1918 Germany was very near the end of the rope as well. Defending the Faterland is one thing. Intervention in Russia is a completly different beast. You can send help - materials and officers and maybe some of the remaining professionals. But I think that if Germany tries to seriously intervene with troops after the peace has been signed and postphones demobilisation it will face a revolution of its own.

Do the have to postpone demobilisation? Germany's normal peacetime establishment was, iirc, around 600,000 men. And most Social Democrats have no more time fr Bolshevism than the Kaiser has, so who's going to revolt?
 
First I hold the opinion that Germany does not want Austria, in other words the Prussians do not seek the merging of Austria into Imperial Germany, so even with really bumbling diplomacy they are not supporting the break up of A-H. Next the Germans really need an ally who at least on paper and in potential is the second strongest continental power, so again Germany is not supporting the weakening of A-H. Third I do not believe the cracks in A-H by default lead to its break up where it is not forced upon them.

Since I am active in the discussion on Germany not invading Belgium and/or Britain not becoming an active belligerent, the scenario of a negotiated peace will be rooted there. It is likely that A-H does not suffer the disastrous opening battle(s) versus Russia and Russia suffers a more complete loss, losing in both East Prussia and on the A-H border. Italy likely never opens the war against A-H and the CPs overrun Poland quicker. Since A-H has performed better it likely gets to place a Hapsburg on the Polish throne and will have more significant say in what happens to Ukraine if the war lasts long enough for Russia to lose that too. But I am not convinced the East looks much different, the war might halt early enough that Russia really only loses the Latvians and Lithuanians (maybe the Estonians too), Poland and maybe Finland. Serbia gets occupied and that becomes a black hole for A-H. Aside from minor border adjustments the maps of Europe scarcely move. Romania likely remains neutral, suffers no losses to A-H and maybe gains some from Russia, but still resents so many Romanians trapped in Hungary. Bulgaria likely joined the war and it too has ambitions in the Balkans, likely getting some of Serbia.

Russia is potentially still facing a civil war and I think Germany would prefer to intervene unless the French and British refuse to end the war necessitating the wholesale shift in forces needed to affect a breakthrough. Without Britain on the Western front France should be further from wanting or needing to fight to the bitter end so I would have Germany supporting the most conservative Russian government willing to make peace, preserve the monarchy and re-open trade. In this scenario I would not give Lenin his train or gold, the communist revolt might be far less impressive but Soviets will be forming and the discontent will be intense. We might not see a civil war but it should be a very messy outburst of demands for reform, so I would see it more like the pre-Weimar revolutionary fervor usurped by social democrats and liberal parties albeit weaker ones in Russia who can gain a republic if desired and again, if willing to sign on for peace, have Germany far less demanding. Thus we might see little to no need for occupation troops from either Germany or A-H in Russia.

A-H must deal with the wounds war inflicted and address the fractures opened between its two halves and the fault lines running through the entire Empire. A-H will take a long time to recover and repair that. Here the friction will be between Austria and Italy, A-H and Bulgaria who might still become the next most feared Balkan power, and the resentment held by Romania. A-H really altered little its Balkan entanglement. But A-H remains a sea power in the center, likely becomes part of Germany's customs and trade schemes, remains the only big power interested in the Balkan squabbles and now has the land line to the Ottomans.
 
In 1918 Germany was very near the end of the rope as well. Defending the Faterland is one thing. Intervention in Russia is a completly different beast. You can send help - materials and officers and maybe some of the remaining professionals. But I think that if Germany tries to seriously intervene with troops after the peace has been signed and postphones demobilisation it will face a revolution of its own.

It's a good thing demobalization when the economy has been tooled to a total war footing is going to result in a sudden surplus of metaphorical guns, since you can only convert back to a civilian economy so fast and stockpiles of military supplies have now become superfluios. And that there are dependably pro-German regimes in the Baltic, Poland, Ukraine, and Finland all of whom have the capacity to purchase said arms and form military forces capable of putting the force multipliers of refined German training, heavy equipment, ect. to good use as well as being able to build a combined grand strategy under German oversight (Something that couldent be done IRL) as opposed to effectively conducting half a dozen isolated defensive campaigns. A coordinated offensive on multiple points at once in the West would put far more pressure on the Reds at key moments and force them to dedicate more resources to yet another front.

That's to say nothing of the greater support for the Frecorp and volunteer forces that are going to form irregardless of government policy (indeed, if the demobalization is occurring rapidly and many young low skilled men find themselves suddenly out of a job with few prospects for one back home, working for a warlord with the promise of land and loot is going to be awful tempting as opposed to going back to a sit hungerly in a slowly recovering Germany). Plus you have Scandinavian volunteers and the Japanese interventions of our timeline; that later of which is probably more seriously pursued and lasting without strong Anglo-French pressures to withdraw later on and a generally better White situation in the west.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
If Germany was doing that good they wouldn't go for a negotited peace.

You'll have to explain your rational a bit more if you want to discuss. The real wildcard is the UK. If the UK plays hard ball on trade and colonies, the Germany will puppetize Belgium. Calais will be a German military base. Larger defacto or actual annexations in the west are likely.

However, in the more likely scenario (IMO), the UK will place a huge weight on having Antwerp and Calais outside of German hands and will make other concessions in the negotiated peace.
 
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