First I hold the opinion that Germany does not want Austria, in other words the Prussians do not seek the merging of Austria into Imperial Germany, so even with really bumbling diplomacy they are not supporting the break up of A-H. Next the Germans really need an ally who at least on paper and in potential is the second strongest continental power, so again Germany is not supporting the weakening of A-H. Third I do not believe the cracks in A-H by default lead to its break up where it is not forced upon them.
Since I am active in the discussion on Germany not invading Belgium and/or Britain not becoming an active belligerent, the scenario of a negotiated peace will be rooted there. It is likely that A-H does not suffer the disastrous opening battle(s) versus Russia and Russia suffers a more complete loss, losing in both East Prussia and on the A-H border. Italy likely never opens the war against A-H and the CPs overrun Poland quicker. Since A-H has performed better it likely gets to place a Hapsburg on the Polish throne and will have more significant say in what happens to Ukraine if the war lasts long enough for Russia to lose that too. But I am not convinced the East looks much different, the war might halt early enough that Russia really only loses the Latvians and Lithuanians (maybe the Estonians too), Poland and maybe Finland. Serbia gets occupied and that becomes a black hole for A-H. Aside from minor border adjustments the maps of Europe scarcely move. Romania likely remains neutral, suffers no losses to A-H and maybe gains some from Russia, but still resents so many Romanians trapped in Hungary. Bulgaria likely joined the war and it too has ambitions in the Balkans, likely getting some of Serbia.
Russia is potentially still facing a civil war and I think Germany would prefer to intervene unless the French and British refuse to end the war necessitating the wholesale shift in forces needed to affect a breakthrough. Without Britain on the Western front France should be further from wanting or needing to fight to the bitter end so I would have Germany supporting the most conservative Russian government willing to make peace, preserve the monarchy and re-open trade. In this scenario I would not give Lenin his train or gold, the communist revolt might be far less impressive but Soviets will be forming and the discontent will be intense. We might not see a civil war but it should be a very messy outburst of demands for reform, so I would see it more like the pre-Weimar revolutionary fervor usurped by social democrats and liberal parties albeit weaker ones in Russia who can gain a republic if desired and again, if willing to sign on for peace, have Germany far less demanding. Thus we might see little to no need for occupation troops from either Germany or A-H in Russia.
A-H must deal with the wounds war inflicted and address the fractures opened between its two halves and the fault lines running through the entire Empire. A-H will take a long time to recover and repair that. Here the friction will be between Austria and Italy, A-H and Bulgaria who might still become the next most feared Balkan power, and the resentment held by Romania. A-H really altered little its Balkan entanglement. But A-H remains a sea power in the center, likely becomes part of Germany's customs and trade schemes, remains the only big power interested in the Balkan squabbles and now has the land line to the Ottomans.